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Louisiana Tech @ Troy
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Power rating (SP+) implies Louisiana Tech
by 4.8
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Troy +6.5,
O/U 45.5
Flags
Louisiana Tech
- 🟡 side Louisiana Tech is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.0/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Troy
- 🟡 side Troy averages 194 rush yds/game (8 games) — Louisiana Tech allows 135 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Troy #108 nat'l, Louisiana Tech #84 nat'l.
Louisiana Tech Offense vs. Troy Defense
Louisiana Tech offense: 8 games this season ·
Troy defense: 8 games this season
Louisiana Tech: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 78 nationally ·
Troy: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 90 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Louisiana Tech offense | Troy defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 389 #66 | 344 #55 |
| Rush yards | 147 #82 | 135 #61 |
| Pass yards | 242 #52 | 208 #63 |
| Plays | 66 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 43% #46 | 36% #50 |
| Turnovers | 1 #35 | 2 #23 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 25 (#85 nat'l) | 29 (#91 nat'l) |
Troy Offense vs. Louisiana Tech Defense
Troy offense: 8 games this season ·
Louisiana Tech defense: 8 games this season
Troy: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 80 nationally ·
Louisiana Tech: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 73 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Troy offense | Louisiana Tech defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 371 #77 | 333 #43 |
| Rush yards | 194 #27 | 135 #61 |
| Pass yards | 177 #121 | 197 #44 |
| Plays | 70 | 66 |
| 3rd down % | 33% #124 | 38% #62 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 2 #5 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 19 (#112 nat'l) | 27 (#74 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Louisiana Tech | Troy |
|---|
| Total yards | 389 | 371 |
| Rush yards | 147 | 194 |
| Pass yards | 242 | 177 |
| Plays | 66 | 70 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Louisiana Tech Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Troy
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Troy's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Troy |
|---|
| Blake Baker (Passing) |
172 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm |
7 |
~215 yds · 2.0 TD
(Troy defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Andrew Burnette (Rushing) |
39 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~49 yds · 0.3 TD
(Troy defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 135 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Trey Kukuk (Rushing) |
30 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~37 yds · 0.3 TD
(Troy defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 135 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jalen Mickens (Receiving) |
79 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~99 yds · 0.6 TD
(Troy defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Eli Finley (Receiving) |
56 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~70 yds · 0.8 TD
(Troy defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Marcus Calwise Jr. (Receiving) |
31 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
6 |
~39 yds · 0.3 TD
(Troy defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Blake Baker |
1327 | 13 | 1 |
7 |
| Trey Kukuk |
494 | 4 | 2 |
7 |
| Marcus Calwise Jr. |
74 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Dylone Brooks |
19 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Josh Brantley |
16 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Andrew Burnette |
94 | 365 | 2 |
8 |
| Trey Kukuk |
43 | 209 | 2 |
7 |
| Dylone Brooks |
19 | 175 | 2 |
4 |
| Jalen Mickens |
7 | 95 | 2 |
6 |
| Sergio Snider |
19 | 83 | 3 |
7 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jalen Mickens |
43 | 618 | 4 |
8 |
| Eli Finley |
41 | 477 | 5 |
8 |
| Marcus Calwise Jr. |
19 | 247 | 2 |
6 |
| Talyn Shettron |
17 | 231 | 1 |
6 |
| Dylone Brooks |
6 | 108 | 1 |
3 |
Troy Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Louisiana Tech
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Louisiana Tech's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Louisiana Tech |
|---|
| Will Crowder (Passing) |
158 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~179 yds · 1.4 TD
(Louisiana Tech defense: SP+ #74 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Gavin Griffin (Rushing) |
50 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~56 yds · 0.3 TD
(Louisiana Tech defense: SP+ #74 nat'l, 135 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaheim Merriweather (Rushing) |
48 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~54 yds · 0.7 TD
(Louisiana Tech defense: SP+ #74 nat'l, 135 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| TK Keyes (Receiving) |
61 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
5 |
~69 yds · 0.7 TD
(Louisiana Tech defense: SP+ #74 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Noreel White (Receiving) |
29 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~33 yds · 0.0 TD
(Louisiana Tech defense: SP+ #74 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jace Petty (Receiving) |
25 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~28 yds · 0.0 TD
(Louisiana Tech defense: SP+ #74 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Will Crowder |
1162 | 9 | 5 |
7 |
| Tucker Kilcrease |
252 | 1 | 0 |
4 |
| Evan Crenshaw |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Gavin Griffin |
98 | 436 | 3 |
8 |
| Jaheim Merriweather |
71 | 386 | 5 |
8 |
| Jordan Lovett |
75 | 382 | 1 |
8 |
| Will Crowder |
51 | 266 | 2 |
7 |
| Tucker Kilcrease |
31 | 73 | 1 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| TK Keyes |
13 | 282 | 3 |
5 |
| Noreel White |
16 | 252 | 0 |
8 |
| Jace Petty |
18 | 209 | 0 |
8 |
| Howard Kinchen |
16 | 174 | 2 |
5 |
| TJ Lott |
10 | 116 | 1 |
5 |