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Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee
2026-11-07T20:30:00.000Z
· Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Western Kentucky
by 1.2
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Middle Tennessee -1.5,
O/U 52.5
Flags
Head-to-head
- 🟢 total Western Kentucky averages 73 plays/game (8 games) vs. Middle Tennessee's 62 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Western Kentucky Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
Western Kentucky offense: 8 games this season ·
Middle Tennessee defense: 8 games this season
Western Kentucky: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 75 nationally ·
Middle Tennessee: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 97 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Western Kentucky offense | Middle Tennessee defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 368 #82 | 393 #106 |
| Rush yards | 147 #83 | 182 #114 |
| Pass yards | 222 #78 | 210 #70 |
| Plays | 73 | 61 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #79 | 38% #72 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 19 (#115 nat'l) | 34 (#119 nat'l) |
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. Western Kentucky Defense
Middle Tennessee offense: 8 games this season ·
Western Kentucky defense: 8 games this season
Middle Tennessee: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 87 nationally ·
Western Kentucky: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 84 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Middle Tennessee offense | Western Kentucky defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 345 #107 | 390 #101 |
| Rush yards | 146 #87 | 171 #105 |
| Pass yards | 198 #101 | 219 #82 |
| Plays | 62 | 63 |
| 3rd down % | 32% #128 | 34% #34 |
| Turnovers | 1 #15 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 18 (#117 nat'l) | 31 (#105 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Western Kentucky | Middle Tennessee |
|---|
| Total yards | 368 | 345 |
| Rush yards | 147 | 146 |
| Pass yards | 222 | 198 |
| Plays | 73 | 62 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Western Kentucky Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Middle Tennessee
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Middle Tennessee's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Middle Tennessee |
|---|
| Brock Glenn (Passing) |
118 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
7 |
~172 yds · 1.2 TD
(Middle Tennessee defense: SP+ #119 nat'l, 210 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Brock Glenn (Rushing) |
52 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~76 yds · 1.0 TD
(Middle Tennessee defense: SP+ #119 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ajay Allen (Rushing) |
45 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~66 yds · 0.7 TD
(Middle Tennessee defense: SP+ #119 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jonathan Stafford Jr. (Receiving) |
48 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~70 yds · 0.1 TD
(Middle Tennessee defense: SP+ #119 nat'l, 210 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Moussa Barry (Receiving) |
25 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
6 |
~36 yds · 0.0 TD
(Middle Tennessee defense: SP+ #119 nat'l, 210 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cameron Flowers (Receiving) |
28 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
6 |
~41 yds · 0.2 TD
(Middle Tennessee defense: SP+ #119 nat'l, 210 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Brock Glenn |
887 | 6 | 4 |
7 |
| Rodney Tisdale Jr. |
883 | 4 | 2 |
6 |
| Caleb McMickle |
3 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Brock Glenn |
91 | 451 | 5 |
8 |
| Ajay Allen |
94 | 405 | 5 |
8 |
| Le'Kamren Meadows |
26 | 165 | 0 |
7 |
| Jaden McGill |
11 | 41 | 0 |
3 |
| Cameron Flowers |
5 | 32 | 0 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jonathan Stafford Jr. |
46 | 439 | 1 |
8 |
| Moussa Barry |
17 | 202 | 0 |
6 |
| Cameron Flowers |
14 | 153 | 1 |
6 |
| Quincy Burroughs |
12 | 147 | 1 |
7 |
| CC Ezirim |
10 | 137 | 1 |
4 |
Middle Tennessee Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Western Kentucky
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Western Kentucky's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Western Kentucky |
|---|
| Roman Gagliano (Passing) |
165 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~223 yds · 1.7 TD
(Western Kentucky defense: SP+ #105 nat'l, 219 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Antonio Martin (Rushing) |
64 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~87 yds · 0.3 TD
(Western Kentucky defense: SP+ #105 nat'l, 171 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Terrence Brown Jr. (Rushing) |
45 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~61 yds · 0.4 TD
(Western Kentucky defense: SP+ #105 nat'l, 171 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cam'Ron Lacy (Receiving) |
55 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~74 yds · 0.6 TD
(Western Kentucky defense: SP+ #105 nat'l, 219 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Neo Clifton (Receiving) |
25 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~34 yds · 0.4 TD
(Western Kentucky defense: SP+ #105 nat'l, 219 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Markus Allen (Receiving) |
30 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
5 |
~40 yds · 0.2 TD
(Western Kentucky defense: SP+ #105 nat'l, 219 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Roman Gagliano |
1587 | 12 | 4 |
8 |
| Peter Costelli |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Antonio Martin |
112 | 586 | 2 |
8 |
| Terrence Brown Jr. |
54 | 348 | 2 |
7 |
| Roman Gagliano |
46 | 179 | 3 |
8 |
| DJ Taylor |
7 | 25 | 0 |
3 |
| Brooklen Davis |
5 | 24 | 0 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Cam'Ron Lacy |
45 | 510 | 4 |
8 |
| Neo Clifton |
18 | 234 | 3 |
8 |
| Markus Allen |
9 | 176 | 1 |
5 |
| Koraun Perdue |
11 | 174 | 2 |
5 |
| Terrence Brown Jr. |
26 | 139 | 0 |
7 |