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Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State
2026-11-08T00:00:00.000Z
· AmFirst Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Jacksonville State
by 17.9
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Jacksonville State -14.5 (opened -14.0),
O/U 47.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 3.4 pts more toward
Jacksonville State than the market line does.
Flags
Jacksonville State
- 🟡 side Jacksonville State averages 224 pass yds/game (8 games) — Sam Houston allows 146 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Jacksonville State #84 nat'l, Sam Houston #129 nat'l.
Sam Houston Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
Sam Houston offense: 8 games this season ·
Jacksonville State defense: 8 games this season
Sam Houston: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 82 nationally ·
Jacksonville State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 105 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Sam Houston offense | Jacksonville State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 323 #124 | 330 #40 |
| Rush yards | 76 #138 | 161 #95 |
| Pass yards | 247 #44 | 170 #11 |
| Plays | 63 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 35% #107 | 46% #125 |
| Turnovers | 1 #48 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 14 (#132 nat'l) | 28 (#83 nat'l) |
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
Jacksonville State offense: 8 games this season ·
Sam Houston defense: 8 games this season
Jacksonville State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 79 nationally ·
Sam Houston: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 85 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Jacksonville State offense | Sam Houston defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 396 #58 | 338 #49 |
| Rush yards | 172 #49 | 192 #125 |
| Pass yards | 224 #75 | 146 #4 |
| Plays | 62 | 65 |
| 3rd down % | 47% #23 | 31% #16 |
| Turnovers | 2 #103 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#79 nat'l) | 32 (#109 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Sam Houston | Jacksonville State |
|---|
| Total yards | 323 | 396 |
| Rush yards | 76 | 172 |
| Pass yards | 247 | 224 |
| Plays | 63 | 62 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
Sam Houston Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Jacksonville State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Jacksonville State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Jacksonville State |
|---|
| Landyn Locke (Passing) |
217 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm |
7 |
~259 yds · 1.9 TD
(Jacksonville State defense: SP+ #83 nat'l, 170 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Alton McCaskill (Rushing) |
27 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~32 yds · 0.1 TD
(Jacksonville State defense: SP+ #83 nat'l, 161 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| MJ Dowdy (Rushing) |
26 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
5 |
~31 yds · 0.2 TD
(Jacksonville State defense: SP+ #83 nat'l, 161 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tim Burns Jr. (Receiving) |
50 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
7 |
~60 yds · 0.5 TD
(Jacksonville State defense: SP+ #83 nat'l, 170 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chris Reed (Receiving) |
37 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~45 yds · 0.4 TD
(Jacksonville State defense: SP+ #83 nat'l, 170 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Grady O'Neill (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~45 yds · 0.3 TD
(Jacksonville State defense: SP+ #83 nat'l, 170 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Landyn Locke |
1653 | 12 | 5 |
7 |
| DJ Bailey |
258 | 0 | 0 |
2 |
| Brett Holloway |
64 | 1 | 1 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Alton McCaskill |
59 | 232 | 1 |
8 |
| MJ Dowdy |
40 | 147 | 1 |
5 |
| Landan Brown |
33 | 125 | 1 |
8 |
| Jerrian Parker |
17 | 86 | 0 |
5 |
| Brett Holloway |
14 | 47 | 1 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Tim Burns Jr. |
18 | 392 | 3 |
7 |
| Chris Reed |
22 | 357 | 3 |
8 |
| Grady O'Neill |
36 | 348 | 2 |
8 |
| Kyan Berry-Johnson |
18 | 195 | 1 |
7 |
| Jerrian Parker |
11 | 185 | 1 |
6 |
Jacksonville State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Sam Houston
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Sam Houston's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Sam Houston |
|---|
| Caden Creel (Passing) |
192 yds/gm · 1.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~266 yds · 2.0 TD
(Sam Houston defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 146 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Caden Creel (Rushing) |
77 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~106 yds · 0.8 TD
(Sam Houston defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 192 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jalen Likely (Rushing) |
38 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
6 |
~52 yds · 0.6 TD
(Sam Houston defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 192 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Deondre Johnson (Receiving) |
48 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~66 yds · 0.4 TD
(Sam Houston defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 146 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Luke Gilbert (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~50 yds · 0.6 TD
(Sam Houston defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 146 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jamill Williams (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
7 |
~49 yds · 0.9 TD
(Sam Houston defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 146 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Caden Creel |
1746 | 13 | 8 |
8 |
| Jack Moran |
25 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Jamill Williams |
14 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Carter Lewis |
7 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Caden Creel |
126 | 711 | 5 |
8 |
| Jalen Likely |
44 | 240 | 3 |
6 |
| Lucas Farrington |
37 | 211 | 1 |
7 |
| Khristian Lando |
31 | 92 | 1 |
7 |
| Justus Savage |
10 | 72 | 1 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Deondre Johnson |
23 | 438 | 3 |
8 |
| Luke Gilbert |
17 | 331 | 4 |
8 |
| Jamill Williams |
26 | 267 | 5 |
7 |
| Ronnel Johnson |
15 | 185 | 0 |
7 |
| Darius Cannon |
23 | 176 | 0 |
7 |