← Back to schedule
Missouri State @ Florida International
2026-11-07T21:00:00.000Z
· Pitbull Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Florida International
by 11.5
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Florida International -5.5 (opened -4.5),
O/U 49.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 6.0 pts more toward
Florida International than the market line does.
Flags
Missouri State
- 🟡 side Missouri State averages 234 pass yds/game (8 games) — Florida International allows 180 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Missouri State #128 nat'l, Florida International #100 nat'l.
Missouri State Offense vs. Florida International Defense
Missouri State offense: 8 games this season ·
Florida International defense: 8 games this season
Missouri State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 90 nationally ·
Florida International: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 88 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Missouri State offense | Florida International defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 363 #86 | 305 #21 |
| Rush yards | 129 #108 | 124 #39 |
| Pass yards | 234 #62 | 180 #26 |
| Plays | 62 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 36% #97 | 31% #15 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 19 (#114 nat'l) | 25 (#61 nat'l) |
Florida International Offense vs. Missouri State Defense
Florida International offense: 8 games this season ·
Missouri State defense: 8 games this season
Florida International: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 86 nationally ·
Missouri State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 89 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Florida International offense | Missouri State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 357 #96 | 419 #124 |
| Rush yards | 115 #118 | 165 #100 |
| Pass yards | 241 #53 | 254 #125 |
| Plays | 68 | 70 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #37 | 43% #117 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #97 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 18 (#118 nat'l) | 35 (#128 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Missouri State | Florida International |
|---|
| Total yards | 363 | 357 |
| Rush yards | 129 | 115 |
| Pass yards | 234 | 241 |
| Plays | 62 | 68 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Missouri State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Florida International
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Florida International's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Florida International |
|---|
| Henry Belin IV (Passing) |
116 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
7 |
~120 yds · 0.9 TD
(Florida International defense: SP+ #61 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ramone Green Jr. (Rushing) |
29 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~30 yds · 0.3 TD
(Florida International defense: SP+ #61 nat'l, 124 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Connor Lair (Rushing) |
23 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~24 yds · 0.4 TD
(Florida International defense: SP+ #61 nat'l, 124 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Isaiah Myers (Receiving) |
97 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
7 |
~100 yds · 1.0 TD
(Florida International defense: SP+ #61 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jmariyae Robinson (Receiving) |
43 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~44 yds · 0.1 TD
(Florida International defense: SP+ #61 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Mekhi Miller (Receiving) |
35 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
4 |
~36 yds · 0.0 TD
(Florida International defense: SP+ #61 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Henry Belin IV |
1071 | 8 | 4 |
7 |
| Skyler Locklear |
788 | 4 | 2 |
5 |
| Elijah Leonard |
7 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Jmariyae Robinson |
3 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Ramone Green Jr. |
67 | 272 | 2 |
8 |
| Connor Lair |
65 | 258 | 4 |
8 |
| Jambres Dubar |
43 | 228 | 2 |
6 |
| Skyler Locklear |
33 | 107 | 0 |
5 |
| King Davis |
15 | 49 | 0 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Isaiah Myers |
41 | 873 | 8 |
7 |
| Jmariyae Robinson |
44 | 398 | 1 |
7 |
| Mekhi Miller |
13 | 146 | 0 |
4 |
| Dillon Hipp |
13 | 122 | 1 |
6 |
| Jeron Askren |
12 | 82 | 1 |
5 |
Florida International Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Missouri State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Missouri State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Missouri State |
|---|
| J.J. Kohl (Passing) |
194 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~296 yds · 1.8 TD
(Missouri State defense: SP+ #128 nat'l, 254 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Devonte Lyons (Rushing) |
46 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~69 yds · 0.2 TD
(Missouri State defense: SP+ #128 nat'l, 165 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Anthony Carrie (Rushing) |
37 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
6 |
~56 yds · 0.2 TD
(Missouri State defense: SP+ #128 nat'l, 165 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Maguire Anderson (Receiving) |
63 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~96 yds · 0.6 TD
(Missouri State defense: SP+ #128 nat'l, 254 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kyle Mcneal (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
6 |
~54 yds · 0.2 TD
(Missouri State defense: SP+ #128 nat'l, 254 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| JoJo Stone (Receiving) |
33 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
5 |
~50 yds · 0.6 TD
(Missouri State defense: SP+ #128 nat'l, 254 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| J.J. Kohl |
1801 | 11 | 9 |
8 |
| Zach Marker |
109 | 0 | 0 |
4 |
| JoJo Stone |
19 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Jackson Verdugo |
2 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Devonte Lyons |
94 | 435 | 1 |
8 |
| Anthony Carrie |
82 | 258 | 1 |
6 |
| Sterling Joseph |
23 | 88 | 0 |
6 |
| Jayden Ford |
7 | 54 | 0 |
4 |
| J.J. Kohl |
40 | 22 | 1 |
8 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Maguire Anderson |
41 | 597 | 4 |
8 |
| Kyle Mcneal |
22 | 233 | 1 |
6 |
| JoJo Stone |
15 | 190 | 2 |
5 |
| James Resar |
18 | 174 | 1 |
6 |
| Eric Nelson |
12 | 162 | 0 |
6 |