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Liberty @ New Mexico State
2026-11-07T22:00:00.000Z
· Aggie Memorial Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Liberty
by 18.4
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): New Mexico State +13.5 (opened +12.5),
O/U 47.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 4.9 pts more toward
Liberty than the market line does.
Flags
Liberty
- 🟢 side Liberty averages 212 rush yds/game (8 games) — New Mexico State allows 136 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Liberty #45 nat'l, New Mexico State #119 nat'l.
Liberty Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Liberty offense: 8 games this season ·
New Mexico State defense: 8 games this season
Liberty: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 98 nationally ·
New Mexico State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 94 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Liberty offense | New Mexico State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 411 #48 | 345 #56 |
| Rush yards | 212 #17 | 136 #63 |
| Pass yards | 199 #100 | 209 #68 |
| Plays | 63 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 45% #30 | 41% #96 |
| Turnovers | 1 #15 | 1 #60 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 28 (#56 nat'l) | 30 (#100 nat'l) |
New Mexico State Offense vs. Liberty Defense
New Mexico State offense: 8 games this season ·
Liberty defense: 8 games this season
New Mexico State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 78 nationally ·
Liberty: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 102 nationally
| Stat (per game) | New Mexico State offense | Liberty defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 349 #103 | 282 #13 |
| Rush yards | 156 #71 | 105 #26 |
| Pass yards | 193 #107 | 177 #19 |
| Plays | 64 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #78 | 29% #8 |
| Turnovers | 2 #126 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 17 (#122 nat'l) | 21 (#34 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Liberty | New Mexico State |
|---|
| Total yards | 411 | 349 |
| Rush yards | 212 | 156 |
| Pass yards | 199 | 193 |
| Plays | 63 | 64 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
Liberty Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. New Mexico State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for New Mexico State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. New Mexico State |
|---|
| Deshawn Purdie (Passing) |
151 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~199 yds · 1.3 TD
(New Mexico State defense: SP+ #100 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kam Davis (Rushing) |
58 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~77 yds · 0.9 TD
(New Mexico State defense: SP+ #100 nat'l, 136 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Peyton Jones (Rushing) |
34 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~44 yds · 0.1 TD
(New Mexico State defense: SP+ #100 nat'l, 136 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Makai Jackson (Receiving) |
63 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~84 yds · 0.7 TD
(New Mexico State defense: SP+ #100 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jamari Person (Receiving) |
26 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~34 yds · 0.2 TD
(New Mexico State defense: SP+ #100 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Darius Copeland (Receiving) |
23 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
6 |
~31 yds · 0.2 TD
(New Mexico State defense: SP+ #100 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Deshawn Purdie |
1453 | 10 | 1 |
8 |
| Jaylen Henderson |
131 | 2 | 0 |
5 |
| Ethan Vasko |
6 | 1 | 0 |
2 |
| Kam Davis |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kam Davis |
87 | 603 | 7 |
8 |
| Peyton Jones |
72 | 330 | 1 |
8 |
| Jaylon Coleman |
31 | 280 | 3 |
8 |
| Terron Kellman |
30 | 154 | 2 |
7 |
| Deshawn Purdie |
45 | 134 | 0 |
8 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Makai Jackson |
29 | 626 | 5 |
8 |
| Jamari Person |
17 | 253 | 2 |
8 |
| Darius Copeland |
12 | 169 | 1 |
6 |
| Jaylon Coleman |
9 | 109 | 1 |
3 |
| Zeke Wimbush |
9 | 103 | 1 |
6 |
New Mexico State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Liberty
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Liberty's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Liberty |
|---|
| Trey Hedden (Passing) |
171 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
5 |
~144 yds · 0.8 TD
(Liberty defense: SP+ #34 nat'l, 177 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| James Jones (Rushing) |
100 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~84 yds · 0.3 TD
(Liberty defense: SP+ #34 nat'l, 105 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Terrell Washington Jr. (Rushing) |
31 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~26 yds · 0.3 TD
(Liberty defense: SP+ #34 nat'l, 105 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tyler King (Receiving) |
47 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
6 |
~39 yds · 0.3 TD
(Liberty defense: SP+ #34 nat'l, 177 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Josiah Thomas (Receiving) |
32 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
7 |
~27 yds · 0.0 TD
(Liberty defense: SP+ #34 nat'l, 177 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| AJ Williams III (Receiving) |
31 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
6 |
~26 yds · 0.2 TD
(Liberty defense: SP+ #34 nat'l, 177 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Trey Hedden |
906 | 5 | 6 |
5 |
| Adam Damante |
638 | 4 | 4 |
6 |
| Terrell Washington Jr. |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| James Jones |
139 | 889 | 4 |
8 |
| Terrell Washington Jr. |
61 | 273 | 3 |
8 |
| Dijon Stanley |
16 | 69 | 0 |
6 |
| Jalen Brown |
5 | 68 | 0 |
4 |
| Isaiah Rudison |
3 | 18 | 0 |
1 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Tyler King |
23 | 307 | 3 |
6 |
| Josiah Thomas |
17 | 214 | 0 |
7 |
| AJ Williams III |
14 | 207 | 2 |
6 |
| Brodrick Malone |
15 | 174 | 1 |
6 |
| Terrione Graves |
5 | 135 | 1 |
4 |