South Alabama @ Louisiana
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Cajun Field
Power rating (SP+) implies Louisiana by 14.4 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Louisiana -5.5, O/U 57.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 8.9 pts more toward Louisiana than the market line does.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
South Alabama Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
South Alabama offense: 8 games this season · Louisiana defense: 8 games this season
South Alabama: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 90 nationally · Louisiana: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 90 nationally
| Stat (per game) | South Alabama offense | Louisiana defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 419 #44 | 317 #31 |
| Rush yards | 213 #14 | 127 #46 |
| Pass yards | 206 #97 | 190 #38 |
| Plays | 72 | 62 |
| 3rd down % | 41% #61 | 39% #77 |
| Turnovers | 1 #15 | 2 #9 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#72 nat'l) | 27 (#73 nat'l) |
Louisiana Offense vs. South Alabama Defense
Louisiana offense: 8 games this season · South Alabama defense: 8 games this season
Louisiana: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 98 nationally · South Alabama: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 88 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Louisiana offense | South Alabama defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 383 #71 | 401 #113 |
| Rush yards | 189 #33 | 157 #90 |
| Pass yards | 193 #105 | 245 #113 |
| Plays | 68 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 41% #55 | 39% #81 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 27 (#63 nat'l) | 38 (#133 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | South Alabama | Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 419 | 383 |
| Rush yards | 213 | 189 |
| Pass yards | 206 | 193 |
| Plays | 72 | 68 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
South Alabama Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Louisiana
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Louisiana's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Louisiana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Hollins (Passing) | 170 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm | 6 | ~190 yds · 1.4 TD (Louisiana defense: SP+ #73 nat'l, 190 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Keenan Phillips (Rushing) | 59 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 8 | ~67 yds · 0.6 TD (Louisiana defense: SP+ #73 nat'l, 127 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| PJ Martin (Rushing) | 59 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~66 yds · 0.8 TD (Louisiana defense: SP+ #73 nat'l, 127 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Brendan Jenkins (Receiving) | 46 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~51 yds · 0.3 TD (Louisiana defense: SP+ #73 nat'l, 190 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Anthony Eager (Receiving) | 60 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 6 | ~68 yds · 0.9 TD (Louisiana defense: SP+ #73 nat'l, 190 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jeremiah Jones-Thomas (Receiving) | 37 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~42 yds · 0.2 TD (Louisiana defense: SP+ #73 nat'l, 190 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Hollins | 1195 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| Bishop Davenport | 450 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Phillips | 107 | 576 | 6 | 8 |
| PJ Martin | 118 | 552 | 7 | 8 |
| Trae'von Dunbar | 57 | 295 | 4 | 8 |
| Jared Hollins | 48 | 150 | 2 | 7 |
| Bishop Davenport | 20 | 73 | 1 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Jenkins | 27 | 451 | 3 | 8 |
| Anthony Eager | 20 | 450 | 6 | 6 |
| Jeremiah Jones-Thomas | 23 | 266 | 1 | 7 |
| Micah Woods | 9 | 142 | 0 | 6 |
| Rod Gibbs | 13 | 120 | 2 | 7 |
Louisiana Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. South Alabama
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for South Alabama's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. South Alabama |
|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne' Winfield (Passing) | 151 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 8 | ~234 yds · 0.9 TD (South Alabama defense: SP+ #133 nat'l, 245 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| D'Wayne' Winfield (Rushing) | 51 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~79 yds · 1.5 TD (South Alabama defense: SP+ #133 nat'l, 157 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| JJ Garner (Rushing) | 30 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 8 | ~47 yds · 0.7 TD (South Alabama defense: SP+ #133 nat'l, 157 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kedarius Wade (Receiving) | 33 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~51 yds · 0.4 TD (South Alabama defense: SP+ #133 nat'l, 245 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Trenton Chaney (Receiving) | 28 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 6 | ~44 yds · 0.2 TD (South Alabama defense: SP+ #133 nat'l, 245 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Caden Jensen (Receiving) | 28 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 5 | ~43 yds · 0.0 TD (South Alabama defense: SP+ #133 nat'l, 245 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne' Winfield | 1457 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| Daniel Beale | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Ja'Corian Norris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Wayne' Winfield | 109 | 464 | 9 | 8 |
| JJ Garner | 51 | 304 | 5 | 8 |
| Steven Blanco | 67 | 243 | 4 | 8 |
| Anthony Reagan Jr. | 58 | 240 | 3 | 8 |
| Darrell Smith | 30 | 156 | 2 | 4 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kedarius Wade | 13 | 279 | 2 | 7 |
| Trenton Chaney | 17 | 217 | 1 | 6 |
| Caden Jensen | 14 | 169 | 0 | 5 |
| Brock Chappell | 14 | 153 | 0 | 6 |
| Russell Babineaux | 17 | 138 | 1 | 7 |