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James Madison @ Southern Miss
2026-11-06T01:00:00.000Z
· M. M. Roberts Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies James Madison
by 24.4
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Southern Miss +14.5 (opened +15.5),
O/U 55.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 9.9 pts more toward
James Madison than the market line does.
Flags
James Madison
- 🟡 side James Madison averages 249 pass yds/game (9 games) — Southern Miss allows 209 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). The raw gap alone is modest, but opponent-adjusted SP+ is decisive here: James Madison's offense (#29 nat'l) is far ahead of Southern Miss's defense (#126 nat'l overall) — the raw number likely understates this given the schedules each team's faced.
James Madison Offense vs. Southern Miss Defense
James Madison offense: 9 games this season ·
Southern Miss defense: 8 games this season
James Madison: opponents faced (9 games): average defense SP+ rank 94 nationally ·
Southern Miss: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 89 nationally
| Stat (per game) | James Madison offense | Southern Miss defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 451 #19 | 432 #129 |
| Rush yards | 202 #23 | 223 #136 |
| Pass yards | 249 #42 | 209 #64 |
| Plays | 70 | 76 |
| 3rd down % | 37% #94 | 41% #104 |
| Turnovers | 1 #60 | 1 #60 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 32 (#33 nat'l) | 36 (#129 nat'l) |
Southern Miss Offense vs. James Madison Defense
Southern Miss offense: 8 games this season ·
James Madison defense: 9 games this season
Southern Miss: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 88 nationally ·
James Madison: opponents faced (9 games): average offense SP+ rank 94 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Southern Miss offense | James Madison defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 400 #54 | 352 #63 |
| Rush yards | 167 #54 | 117 #34 |
| Pass yards | 232 #64 | 235 #103 |
| Plays | 70 | 71 |
| 3rd down % | 31% #133 | 37% #56 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #42 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 20 (#108 nat'l) | 22 (#37 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | James Madison | Southern Miss |
|---|
| Total yards | 451 | 400 |
| Rush yards | 202 | 167 |
| Pass yards | 249 | 232 |
| Plays | 70 | 70 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
James Madison Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Southern Miss
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Southern Miss's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Southern Miss |
|---|
| Camden Coleman (Passing) |
153 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm |
9 |
~234 yds · 2.1 TD
(Southern Miss defense: SP+ #129 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| George Pettaway (Rushing) |
80 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
8 |
~123 yds · 1.3 TD
(Southern Miss defense: SP+ #129 nat'l, 223 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Nick Herman (Rushing) |
30 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
9 |
~45 yds · 0.5 TD
(Southern Miss defense: SP+ #129 nat'l, 223 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Corey Scott (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~58 yds · 0.8 TD
(Southern Miss defense: SP+ #129 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Michael Scott (Receiving) |
35 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~53 yds · 0.3 TD
(Southern Miss defense: SP+ #129 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cole Keller (Receiving) |
32 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
9 |
~48 yds · 0.7 TD
(Southern Miss defense: SP+ #129 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Camden Coleman |
1743 | 16 | 4 |
9 |
| JC Evans |
370 | 5 | 1 |
5 |
| Arrington Maiden |
111 | 2 | 0 |
1 |
| Tanner Vibabul |
16 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| George Pettaway |
124 | 824 | 8 |
8 |
| Nick Herman |
52 | 315 | 3 |
9 |
| Seth Cromwell |
65 | 314 | 3 |
8 |
| Camden Coleman |
45 | 116 | 2 |
8 |
| JC Evans |
34 | 115 | 2 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Corey Scott |
27 | 386 | 5 |
8 |
| Michael Scott |
26 | 356 | 2 |
8 |
| Cole Keller |
22 | 353 | 5 |
9 |
| Braeden Wisloski |
24 | 339 | 2 |
8 |
| Jeremiah Harrison |
19 | 230 | 2 |
6 |
Southern Miss Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. James Madison
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for James Madison's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. James Madison |
|---|
| Landy Lyddy (Passing) |
133 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~115 yds · 0.7 TD
(James Madison defense: SP+ #37 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Steven Robinson (Rushing) |
77 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~66 yds · 0.8 TD
(James Madison defense: SP+ #37 nat'l, 117 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jamarice Wilder (Rushing) |
50 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~43 yds · 0.5 TD
(James Madison defense: SP+ #37 nat'l, 117 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Mario Sanders II (Receiving) |
65 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~56 yds · 0.5 TD
(James Madison defense: SP+ #37 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| A.J. Little (Receiving) |
34 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~29 yds · 0.1 TD
(James Madison defense: SP+ #37 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kaden Saunders (Receiving) |
28 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
6 |
~24 yds · 0.0 TD
(James Madison defense: SP+ #37 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Landy Lyddy |
1326 | 8 | 4 |
8 |
| Ethan Hampton |
419 | 2 | 4 |
3 |
| Mario Sanders II |
75 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Eelijah Singleton |
27 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
| Dusty Zimmer |
12 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Steven Robinson |
142 | 728 | 9 |
8 |
| Jamarice Wilder |
72 | 476 | 6 |
8 |
| Robert Briggs |
4 | 66 | 1 |
2 |
| Jaylen Foster |
6 | 31 | 0 |
1 |
| MJ Johnson |
2 | 19 | 0 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Mario Sanders II |
44 | 600 | 5 |
8 |
| A.J. Little |
18 | 275 | 1 |
7 |
| Kaden Saunders |
16 | 211 | 0 |
6 |
| MJ Johnson |
11 | 145 | 0 |
6 |
| Davis Dalton |
10 | 133 | 1 |
4 |