UL Monroe @ Arkansas State
2026-11-07T20:00:00.000Z · Centennial Bank Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Arkansas State by 19.7 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Arkansas State -14.5, O/U 51.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 5.2 pts more toward Arkansas State than the market line does.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
UL Monroe Offense vs. Arkansas State Defense
UL Monroe offense: 8 games this season · Arkansas State defense: 8 games this season
UL Monroe: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 103 nationally · Arkansas State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 78 nationally
| Stat (per game) | UL Monroe offense | Arkansas State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 331 #116 | 386 #98 |
| Rush yards | 122 #112 | 195 #128 |
| Pass yards | 210 #89 | 191 #39 |
| Plays | 66 | 62 |
| 3rd down % | 31% #130 | 44% #124 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 2 #23 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 15 (#131 nat'l) | 32 (#113 nat'l) |
Arkansas State Offense vs. UL Monroe Defense
Arkansas State offense: 8 games this season · UL Monroe defense: 8 games this season
Arkansas State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 93 nationally · UL Monroe: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 81 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Arkansas State offense | UL Monroe defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 379 #74 | 435 #131 |
| Rush yards | 136 #99 | 222 #135 |
| Pass yards | 242 #51 | 212 #72 |
| Plays | 62 | 70 |
| 3rd down % | 42% #48 | 42% #111 |
| Turnovers | 1 #35 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 25 (#81 nat'l) | 38 (#134 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | UL Monroe | Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 331 | 379 |
| Rush yards | 122 | 136 |
| Pass yards | 210 | 242 |
| Plays | 66 | 62 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
UL Monroe Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Arkansas State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Arkansas State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Armenta (Passing) | 140 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm | 7 | ~198 yds · 1.3 TD (Arkansas State defense: SP+ #113 nat'l, 191 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Austin Carlisle (Rushing) | 36 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 6 | ~51 yds · 0.2 TD (Arkansas State defense: SP+ #113 nat'l, 195 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Zachary Palmer-Smith (Rushing) | 22 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 5 | ~31 yds · 0.2 TD (Arkansas State defense: SP+ #113 nat'l, 195 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Marcellus Jackson (Receiving) | 38 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 7 | ~53 yds · 0.1 TD (Arkansas State defense: SP+ #113 nat'l, 191 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Parker Fulghum (Receiving) | 23 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~33 yds · 0.2 TD (Arkansas State defense: SP+ #113 nat'l, 191 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| LT Robinson (Receiving) | 19 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~27 yds · 0.1 TD (Arkansas State defense: SP+ #113 nat'l, 191 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Armenta | 1316 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| Austin Carlisle | 360 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Landon Graves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Carlisle | 46 | 252 | 1 | 6 |
| Zachary Palmer-Smith | 34 | 156 | 1 | 5 |
| Bryson Roland | 43 | 150 | 0 | 6 |
| Derrick Jameson | 29 | 145 | 2 | 6 |
| Donald Chaney Jr. | 19 | 75 | 0 | 3 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcellus Jackson | 33 | 348 | 1 | 7 |
| Parker Fulghum | 17 | 220 | 1 | 8 |
| LT Robinson | 15 | 204 | 1 | 8 |
| Nic Trujillo | 15 | 194 | 3 | 7 |
| JP Coulter | 18 | 191 | 0 | 7 |
Arkansas State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UL Monroe
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UL Monroe's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Owens (Passing) | 197 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~307 yds · 1.6 TD (UL Monroe defense: SP+ #134 nat'l, 212 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Solomon Baggett (Rushing) | 38 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~59 yds · 0.4 TD (UL Monroe defense: SP+ #134 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kenyon Clay (Rushing) | 30 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 6 | ~46 yds · 0.7 TD (UL Monroe defense: SP+ #134 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaylen Bonelli (Receiving) | 43 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~68 yds · 0.5 TD (UL Monroe defense: SP+ #134 nat'l, 212 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Hunter Summers (Receiving) | 51 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~80 yds · 0.5 TD (UL Monroe defense: SP+ #134 nat'l, 212 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chauncy Cobb (Receiving) | 40 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~62 yds · 0.2 TD (UL Monroe defense: SP+ #134 nat'l, 212 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Owens | 1940 | 11 | 6 | 8 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solomon Baggett | 68 | 306 | 2 | 7 |
| Kenyon Clay | 52 | 221 | 3 | 6 |
| Trey Owens | 61 | 210 | 4 | 8 |
| James Lee | 21 | 141 | 0 | 6 |
| Ezell Jolly | 20 | 110 | 1 | 5 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Bonelli | 31 | 452 | 3 | 8 |
| Hunter Summers | 31 | 422 | 3 | 7 |
| Chauncy Cobb | 35 | 382 | 1 | 8 |
| Nazeviah Burris | 11 | 164 | 1 | 4 |
| Kenyon Clay | 10 | 124 | 1 | 5 |