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Georgia State @ App State
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Kidd Brewer Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies App State
by 6.8
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): App State -3.5,
O/U 57.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 3.3 pts more toward
App State than the market line does.
Flags
Georgia State
- 🟢 side Georgia State averages 200 rush yds/game (8 games) — App State allows 128 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Georgia State #105 nat'l, App State #95 nat'l.
Georgia State Offense vs. App State Defense
Georgia State offense: 8 games this season ·
App State defense: 8 games this season
Georgia State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 90 nationally ·
App State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 90 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Georgia State offense | App State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 438 #28 | 372 #81 |
| Rush yards | 200 #26 | 128 #47 |
| Pass yards | 238 #55 | 244 #111 |
| Plays | 68 | 71 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #39 | 36% #54 |
| Turnovers | 2 #114 | 2 #31 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#75 nat'l) | 30 (#96 nat'l) |
App State Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
App State offense: 8 games this season ·
Georgia State defense: 8 games this season
App State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 92 nationally ·
Georgia State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 95 nationally
| Stat (per game) | App State offense | Georgia State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 390 #65 | 358 #67 |
| Rush yards | 126 #110 | 140 #69 |
| Pass yards | 263 #29 | 218 #80 |
| Plays | 67 | 63 |
| 3rd down % | 35% #108 | 29% #8 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 24 (#89 nat'l) | 35 (#127 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Georgia State | App State |
|---|
| Total yards | 438 | 390 |
| Rush yards | 200 | 126 |
| Pass yards | 238 | 263 |
| Plays | 68 | 67 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
Georgia State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. App State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for App State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. App State |
|---|
| Cameran Brown (Passing) |
175 yds/gm · 1.8 TD/gm |
7 |
~226 yds · 2.3 TD
(App State defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Qwantavius Wiggins (Rushing) |
48 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~62 yds · 0.5 TD
(App State defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 128 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Lanear McCrary Jr. (Rushing) |
42 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~54 yds · 0.6 TD
(App State defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 128 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rodshaun Dorsey (Receiving) |
47 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
8 |
~60 yds · 1.1 TD
(App State defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| DJ Riles (Receiving) |
34 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~43 yds · 0.2 TD
(App State defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Derrick Avery Jr. (Receiving) |
31 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
6 |
~39 yds · 0.2 TD
(App State defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Cameran Brown |
1356 | 14 | 5 |
7 |
| Ayden Pereira |
463 | 4 | 3 |
6 |
| DJ Riles |
50 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Gavin Nuckolls |
20 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| TJ Stanley |
19 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Qwantavius Wiggins |
65 | 446 | 3 |
8 |
| Lanear McCrary Jr. |
84 | 403 | 4 |
8 |
| DJ Murray Jr. |
43 | 252 | 2 |
6 |
| Cameran Brown |
40 | 174 | 1 |
6 |
| Ayden Pereira |
31 | 111 | 2 |
6 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Rodshaun Dorsey |
28 | 459 | 8 |
8 |
| DJ Riles |
29 | 292 | 2 |
8 |
| Derrick Avery Jr. |
13 | 210 | 1 |
6 |
| Grant Hollier |
14 | 201 | 1 |
6 |
| DJ Murray Jr. |
11 | 155 | 2 |
5 |
App State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Georgia State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Georgia State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Georgia State |
|---|
| Malachi Singleton (Passing) |
203 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~307 yds · 1.5 TD
(Georgia State defense: SP+ #127 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaquari Lewis (Rushing) |
47 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~71 yds · 1.1 TD
(Georgia State defense: SP+ #127 nat'l, 140 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Henry Hasselbeck (Rushing) |
24 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~36 yds · 0.0 TD
(Georgia State defense: SP+ #127 nat'l, 140 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Sam Pickett III (Receiving) |
59 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~89 yds · 0.6 TD
(Georgia State defense: SP+ #127 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Nate Branch (Receiving) |
40 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~60 yds · 0.0 TD
(Georgia State defense: SP+ #127 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chris Lofton (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~55 yds · 0.4 TD
(Georgia State defense: SP+ #127 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Malachi Singleton |
1915 | 9 | 4 |
8 |
| Henry Hasselbeck |
172 | 2 | 1 |
6 |
| Tommy Ulatowski |
20 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jaquari Lewis |
86 | 431 | 8 |
8 |
| Henry Hasselbeck |
45 | 237 | 0 |
8 |
| Ja'Quez Cross |
32 | 151 | 0 |
7 |
| Treyaun Webb |
24 | 70 | 2 |
5 |
| Nate Branch |
3 | 38 | 1 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Sam Pickett III |
36 | 560 | 4 |
8 |
| Nate Branch |
34 | 364 | 0 |
8 |
| Chris Lofton |
23 | 310 | 2 |
7 |
| Darrin Fugitt |
27 | 257 | 1 |
7 |
| Jamel Howse |
14 | 185 | 0 |
6 |