Toledo @ Sacramento State
2026-11-04T05:00:00.000Z · Hornet Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Toledo by 28.6 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Sacramento State +27.5 (opened +26.5), O/U 51.5
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Toledo
- side Toledo averages 288 pass yds/game (8 games) — Sacramento State allows 196 pass yds/game on defense (9 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Toledo #64 nat'l, Sacramento State #138 nat'l.
- side Toledo averages 188 rush yds/game (8 games) — Sacramento State allows 168 rush yds/game on defense (9 games). The raw gap alone is modest, but opponent-adjusted SP+ is decisive here: Toledo's offense (#64 nat'l) is far ahead of Sacramento State's defense (#138 nat'l overall) — the raw number likely understates this given the schedules each team's faced.
Head-to-head
- total Toledo averages 71 plays/game (8 games) vs. Sacramento State's 65 plays/game (9 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Toledo Offense vs. Sacramento State Defense
Toledo offense: 8 games this season · Sacramento State defense: 9 games this season
Toledo: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 99 nationally · Sacramento State: opponents faced (9 games): average offense SP+ rank 109 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Toledo offense | Sacramento State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 476 #10 | 364 #73 |
| Rush yards | 188 #34 | 168 #104 |
| Pass yards | 288 #12 | 196 #41 |
| Plays | 71 | 61 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #34 | 40% #85 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 1 #94 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 28 (#58 nat'l) | 39 (#137 nat'l) |
Sacramento State Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Sacramento State offense: 9 games this season · Toledo defense: 8 games this season
Sacramento State: opponents faced (9 games): average defense SP+ rank 89 nationally · Toledo: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 107 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Sacramento State offense | Toledo defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 296 #132 | 326 #38 |
| Rush yards | 108 #127 | 128 #48 |
| Pass yards | 188 #110 | 198 #45 |
| Plays | 65 | 69 |
| 3rd down % | 33% #122 | 35% #42 |
| Turnovers | 2 #125 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 10 (#138 nat'l) | 26 (#65 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Toledo | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 476 | 296 |
| Rush yards | 188 | 108 |
| Pass yards | 288 | 188 |
| Plays | 71 | 65 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
Toledo Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Sacramento State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Sacramento State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Alan Richter (Passing) | 226 yds/gm · 1.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~358 yds · 2.8 TD (Sacramento State defense: SP+ #137 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| CJ Miller (Rushing) | 61 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~96 yds · 1.1 TD (Sacramento State defense: SP+ #137 nat'l, 168 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Connor Walendzak (Rushing) | 47 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 7 | ~74 yds · 1.2 TD (Sacramento State defense: SP+ #137 nat'l, 168 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Adjatay Dabbs (Receiving) | 60 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 8 | ~95 yds · 1.2 TD (Sacramento State defense: SP+ #137 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Bryson Hammer (Receiving) | 57 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~91 yds · 0.3 TD (Sacramento State defense: SP+ #137 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Terrell Crosby Jr. (Receiving) | 35 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 5 | ~56 yds · 0.0 TD (Sacramento State defense: SP+ #137 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Alan Richter | 2244 | 17 | 2 | 8 |
| Walter Moses | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Khamoni Robinson | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Miller | 109 | 609 | 7 | 8 |
| Connor Walendzak | 73 | 424 | 7 | 7 |
| Autavius Ison | 67 | 323 | 3 | 8 |
| Khamoni Robinson | 4 | 56 | 1 | 2 |
| Noah Sanders | 10 | 42 | 0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjatay Dabbs | 40 | 592 | 7 | 8 |
| Bryson Hammer | 28 | 494 | 2 | 7 |
| Terrell Crosby Jr. | 22 | 229 | 0 | 5 |
| Sam Lee | 19 | 222 | 0 | 6 |
| Daryl Barnett Jr. | 17 | 220 | 3 | 8 |
Sacramento State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Toledo
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Toledo's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Toledo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Sharman (Passing) | 159 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm | 8 | ~169 yds · 1.0 TD (Toledo defense: SP+ #65 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Isaiah Ene (Rushing) | 37 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 9 | ~40 yds · 0.2 TD (Toledo defense: SP+ #65 nat'l, 128 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Daniel Swinney (Rushing) | 29 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~31 yds · 0.1 TD (Toledo defense: SP+ #65 nat'l, 128 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Matthew Coleman (Receiving) | 53 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 9 | ~56 yds · 0.5 TD (Toledo defense: SP+ #65 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Onterrio Smith Jr. (Receiving) | 38 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 9 | ~40 yds · 0.2 TD (Toledo defense: SP+ #65 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Raiden Brown (Receiving) | 23 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~25 yds · 0.0 TD (Toledo defense: SP+ #65 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Sharman | 1374 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| Carson Conklin | 222 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brian Salazar | 99 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Ene | 77 | 410 | 3 | 9 |
| Daniel Swinney | 51 | 265 | 1 | 8 |
| Cincere Rhaney | 42 | 194 | 0 | 8 |
| Jamar Curtis | 35 | 103 | 1 | 7 |
| Jaylen Patterson | 6 | 56 | 1 | 3 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Coleman | 41 | 492 | 5 | 9 |
| Onterrio Smith Jr. | 35 | 390 | 1 | 9 |
| Raiden Brown | 24 | 218 | 0 | 8 |
| Jace Wilson | 9 | 163 | 2 | 4 |
| Jordan Williams | 15 | 122 | 0 | 5 |