Ball State @ Massachusetts
2026-11-04T05:00:00.000Z · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Massachusetts by 11.5 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Massachusetts -4.5, O/U 48.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 7.0 pts more toward Massachusetts than the market line does.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
Ball State Offense vs. Massachusetts Defense
Ball State offense: 8 games this season · Massachusetts defense: 8 games this season
Ball State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 71 nationally · Massachusetts: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 98 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Ball State offense | Massachusetts defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 338 #110 | 324 #36 |
| Rush yards | 141 #90 | 143 #71 |
| Pass yards | 196 #102 | 182 #29 |
| Plays | 64 | 67 |
| 3rd down % | 35% #111 | 36% #53 |
| Turnovers | 1 #48 | 2 #23 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 18 (#119 nat'l) | 30 (#99 nat'l) |
Massachusetts Offense vs. Ball State Defense
Massachusetts offense: 8 games this season · Ball State defense: 8 games this season
Massachusetts: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 104 nationally · Ball State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 79 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Massachusetts offense | Ball State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 335 #114 | 423 #126 |
| Rush yards | 147 #85 | 183 #115 |
| Pass yards | 188 #112 | 240 #106 |
| Plays | 59 | 66 |
| 3rd down % | 32% #125 | 43% #115 |
| Turnovers | 1 #15 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 18 (#116 nat'l) | 37 (#132 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Ball State | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 338 | 335 |
| Rush yards | 141 | 147 |
| Pass yards | 196 | 188 |
| Plays | 64 | 59 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Ball State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Massachusetts
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Massachusetts's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keldric Luster (Passing) | 182 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~239 yds · 1.5 TD (Massachusetts defense: SP+ #99 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| TJ Horton (Rushing) | 50 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~66 yds · 1.4 TD (Massachusetts defense: SP+ #99 nat'l, 143 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Keldric Luster (Rushing) | 30 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~40 yds · 0.2 TD (Massachusetts defense: SP+ #99 nat'l, 143 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Donovan Hamilton (Receiving) | 42 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 7 | ~55 yds · 0.1 TD (Massachusetts defense: SP+ #99 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jamarion McDougle (Receiving) | 35 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~46 yds · 0.4 TD (Massachusetts defense: SP+ #99 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Isaiah Thacker (Receiving) | 31 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 6 | ~41 yds · 0.1 TD (Massachusetts defense: SP+ #99 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keldric Luster | 1300 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| Tyler Mizzell | 260 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Mason Atkins | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Horton | 68 | 426 | 9 | 8 |
| Keldric Luster | 68 | 257 | 2 | 7 |
| Jalen Bonds | 47 | 224 | 2 | 6 |
| Johnny Thompson Jr. | 35 | 86 | 0 | 8 |
| Elijah Jackson | 8 | 34 | 0 | 4 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Hamilton | 25 | 310 | 1 | 7 |
| Jamarion McDougle | 23 | 264 | 2 | 7 |
| Isaiah Thacker | 16 | 217 | 1 | 6 |
| Jabari Smith | 21 | 212 | 2 | 4 |
| Jalen Bonds | 10 | 112 | 1 | 5 |
Massachusetts Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Ball State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Ball State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Ball State |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Watson III (Passing) | 137 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm | 6 | ~213 yds · 1.6 TD (Ball State defense: SP+ #132 nat'l, 240 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Elijah Faulkner (Rushing) | 40 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~61 yds · 0.2 TD (Ball State defense: SP+ #132 nat'l, 183 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Curtis Kimmons IV (Rushing) | 29 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~45 yds · 0.6 TD (Ball State defense: SP+ #132 nat'l, 183 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ty Harding (Receiving) | 46 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 6 | ~71 yds · 0.5 TD (Ball State defense: SP+ #132 nat'l, 240 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jabari Lewis (Receiving) | 37 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 6 | ~57 yds · 0.0 TD (Ball State defense: SP+ #132 nat'l, 240 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Joseph Griffin Jr. (Receiving) | 44 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 4 | ~68 yds · 0.3 TD (Ball State defense: SP+ #132 nat'l, 240 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Watson III | 1025 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| Logan Inagawa | 296 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Aedan McCarthy | 182 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Faulkner | 89 | 376 | 1 | 8 |
| Curtis Kimmons IV | 55 | 308 | 4 | 8 |
| William Watson III | 37 | 178 | 4 | 6 |
| Ty Harding | 4 | 90 | 1 | 3 |
| Logan Inagawa | 25 | 75 | 1 | 3 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Harding | 28 | 327 | 2 | 6 |
| Jabari Lewis | 20 | 284 | 0 | 6 |
| Joseph Griffin Jr. | 12 | 211 | 1 | 4 |
| Kezion Dia-Johnson | 13 | 140 | 0 | 5 |
| Reece Adkins | 15 | 132 | 0 | 8 |