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Buffalo @ Miami (OH)
2026-11-04T00:00:00.000Z
· Yager Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Miami (OH)
by 10.3
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Miami (OH) -6.5,
O/U 44.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 3.8 pts more toward
Miami (OH) than the market line does.
Flags
Buffalo
- 🟢 side Buffalo averages 176 rush yds/game (8 games) — Miami (OH) allows 97 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Buffalo #118 nat'l, Miami (OH) #92 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- 🟢 total Buffalo averages 73 plays/game (8 games) vs. Miami (OH)'s 58 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Buffalo Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Buffalo offense: 8 games this season ·
Miami (OH) defense: 8 games this season
Buffalo: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 72 nationally ·
Miami (OH): opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 89 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Buffalo offense | Miami (OH) defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 331 #117 | 367 #76 |
| Rush yards | 176 #44 | 97 #15 |
| Pass yards | 155 #130 | 270 #132 |
| Plays | 73 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #86 | 42% #106 |
| Turnovers | 2 #103 | 1 #97 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 16 (#125 nat'l) | 27 (#77 nat'l) |
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Miami (OH) offense: 8 games this season ·
Buffalo defense: 8 games this season
Miami (OH): opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 95 nationally ·
Buffalo: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 96 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Miami (OH) offense | Buffalo defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 358 #92 | 378 #90 |
| Rush yards | 141 #90 | 150 #79 |
| Pass yards | 217 #82 | 228 #95 |
| Plays | 58 | 66 |
| 3rd down % | 36% #100 | 36% #49 |
| Turnovers | 1 #25 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 23 (#100 nat'l) | 28 (#87 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Buffalo | Miami (OH) |
|---|
| Total yards | 331 | 358 |
| Rush yards | 176 | 141 |
| Pass yards | 155 | 217 |
| Plays | 73 | 58 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
Buffalo Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Miami (OH)
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Miami (OH)'s own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Miami (OH) |
|---|
| Jason Wright (Passing) |
129 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
7 |
~149 yds · 1.0 TD
(Miami (OH) defense: SP+ #77 nat'l, 270 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Messiah Burch (Rushing) |
92 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~106 yds · 0.6 TD
(Miami (OH) defense: SP+ #77 nat'l, 97 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Nino Hill (Rushing) |
31 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~36 yds · 0.4 TD
(Miami (OH) defense: SP+ #77 nat'l, 97 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chance Morrow (Receiving) |
58 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~66 yds · 0.9 TD
(Miami (OH) defense: SP+ #77 nat'l, 270 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Clint Walker (Receiving) |
25 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~28 yds · 0.4 TD
(Miami (OH) defense: SP+ #77 nat'l, 270 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Dwayne Early Jr. (Receiving) |
29 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
6 |
~34 yds · 0.0 TD
(Miami (OH) defense: SP+ #77 nat'l, 270 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Jason Wright |
987 | 7 | 4 |
7 |
| Elijah Holmes |
253 | 3 | 0 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Messiah Burch |
151 | 845 | 5 |
8 |
| Nino Hill |
63 | 202 | 2 |
6 |
| Jason Wright |
58 | 158 | 2 |
7 |
| James McNeil Jr. |
27 | 120 | 1 |
4 |
| Terrance Shelton Jr. |
23 | 80 | 0 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Chance Morrow |
41 | 483 | 6 |
8 |
| Clint Walker |
22 | 195 | 3 |
7 |
| Dwayne Early Jr. |
15 | 192 | 0 |
6 |
| Jaylen Andrews |
17 | 147 | 0 |
7 |
| Patrick Clacks III |
9 | 103 | 1 |
6 |
Miami (OH) Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Buffalo
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Buffalo's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Buffalo |
|---|
| David McComb (Passing) |
263 yds/gm · 1.7 TD/gm |
4 |
~321 yds · 2.0 TD
(Buffalo defense: SP+ #87 nat'l, 228 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rodney Nelson (Rushing) |
36 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~44 yds · 0.3 TD
(Buffalo defense: SP+ #87 nat'l, 150 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Caleb Heavner (Rushing) |
24 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~29 yds · 0.3 TD
(Buffalo defense: SP+ #87 nat'l, 150 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Maleek Huggins (Receiving) |
51 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~62 yds · 0.2 TD
(Buffalo defense: SP+ #87 nat'l, 228 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Damarion Witten (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~46 yds · 0.5 TD
(Buffalo defense: SP+ #87 nat'l, 228 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Lynel Billups-Williams (Receiving) |
35 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~43 yds · 0.3 TD
(Buffalo defense: SP+ #87 nat'l, 228 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| David McComb |
1120 | 7 | 1 |
4 |
| Caleb Heavner |
615 | 3 | 4 |
7 |
| Damarion Witten |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Rodney Nelson |
78 | 391 | 3 |
8 |
| Caleb Heavner |
53 | 217 | 2 |
7 |
| D'Shawntae Jones |
55 | 173 | 3 |
8 |
| Lazaro Rogers |
28 | 136 | 1 |
7 |
| Scoop Smith |
6 | 118 | 1 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Maleek Huggins |
24 | 431 | 1 |
7 |
| Damarion Witten |
17 | 346 | 4 |
8 |
| Lynel Billups-Williams |
24 | 289 | 2 |
7 |
| Scoop Smith |
18 | 189 | 1 |
8 |
| Braylon Isom |
11 | 159 | 0 |
5 |