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Wyoming @ UNLV
2026-11-08T03:30:00.000Z
· Allegiant Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies UNLV
by 7.6
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): UNLV -8.5,
O/U 45.5
Flags
Head-to-head
- 🟡 total UNLV averages 66 plays/game (8 games) vs. Wyoming's 58 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Wyoming Offense vs. UNLV Defense
Wyoming offense: 8 games this season ·
UNLV defense: 8 games this season
Wyoming: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 91 nationally ·
UNLV: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 84 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Wyoming offense | UNLV defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 328 #119 | 395 #108 |
| Rush yards | 186 #39 | 190 #123 |
| Pass yards | 142 #133 | 206 #56 |
| Plays | 58 | 68 |
| 3rd down % | 34% #116 | 41% #97 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #60 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 18 (#119 nat'l) | 28 (#80 nat'l) |
UNLV Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
UNLV offense: 8 games this season ·
Wyoming defense: 8 games this season
UNLV: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 94 nationally ·
Wyoming: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 101 nationally
| Stat (per game) | UNLV offense | Wyoming defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 384 #69 | 369 #78 |
| Rush yards | 175 #45 | 189 #122 |
| Pass yards | 209 #92 | 180 #26 |
| Plays | 66 | 69 |
| 3rd down % | 42% #54 | 40% #83 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 25 (#83 nat'l) | 25 (#57 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Wyoming | UNLV |
|---|
| Total yards | 328 | 384 |
| Rush yards | 186 | 175 |
| Pass yards | 142 | 209 |
| Plays | 58 | 66 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Wyoming Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UNLV
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UNLV's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. UNLV |
|---|
| Tyler Hughes (Passing) |
115 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~134 yds · 0.7 TD
(UNLV defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tyler Hughes (Rushing) |
62 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~72 yds · 0.6 TD
(UNLV defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 190 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Markell Holman (Rushing) |
45 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~53 yds · 0.5 TD
(UNLV defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 190 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jake Wilson (Receiving) |
25 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~30 yds · 0.3 TD
(UNLV defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kyle Frendt (Receiving) |
31 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
5 |
~37 yds · 0.2 TD
(UNLV defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Eric Richardson (Receiving) |
18 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
7 |
~21 yds · 0.0 TD
(UNLV defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Tyler Hughes |
1131 | 5 | 7 |
8 |
| Bart Edmiston Jr. |
7 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Tyler Hughes |
103 | 617 | 6 |
8 |
| Markell Holman |
79 | 425 | 4 |
8 |
| Samuel Harris |
68 | 333 | 2 |
7 |
| Nico Hamilton |
16 | 53 | 0 |
4 |
| Landon Sims |
3 | 22 | 1 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jake Wilson |
22 | 242 | 2 |
8 |
| Kyle Frendt |
11 | 216 | 1 |
5 |
| Eric Richardson |
15 | 174 | 0 |
7 |
| Charlie Coenen |
13 | 147 | 1 |
7 |
| Markell Holman |
16 | 111 | 0 |
6 |
UNLV Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Wyoming
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Wyoming's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Wyoming |
|---|
| Jackson Arnold (Passing) |
162 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~162 yds · 1.2 TD
(Wyoming defense: SP+ #57 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jai'Den Thomas (Rushing) |
69 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~70 yds · 0.4 TD
(Wyoming defense: SP+ #57 nat'l, 189 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jackson Arnold (Rushing) |
52 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~52 yds · 0.6 TD
(Wyoming defense: SP+ #57 nat'l, 189 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kayden McGee (Receiving) |
52 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
7 |
~52 yds · 0.6 TD
(Wyoming defense: SP+ #57 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tastean Reddicks (Receiving) |
32 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~32 yds · 0.2 TD
(Wyoming defense: SP+ #57 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Taeshaun Lyons (Receiving) |
22 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
6 |
~22 yds · 0.1 TD
(Wyoming defense: SP+ #57 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Jackson Arnold |
1660 | 13 | 4 |
8 |
| Alex Orji |
9 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
| Matt Byrnes |
0 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jai'Den Thomas |
128 | 657 | 4 |
8 |
| Jackson Arnold |
118 | 494 | 6 |
8 |
| Jaylon Glover |
16 | 89 | 0 |
3 |
| Alex Orji |
7 | 65 | 0 |
5 |
| Darrien Jones |
13 | 36 | 0 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kayden McGee |
21 | 442 | 5 |
7 |
| Tastean Reddicks |
18 | 310 | 2 |
7 |
| Taeshaun Lyons |
16 | 185 | 1 |
6 |
| Jai'Den Thomas |
23 | 174 | 2 |
7 |
| Keyan Burnett |
15 | 171 | 2 |
7 |