Northern Illinois @ San José State
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · CEFCU Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies San José State by 16.6 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment). No market line to compare against yet.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
Northern Illinois Offense vs. San José State Defense
Northern Illinois offense: 8 games this season · San José State defense: 9 games this season
Northern Illinois: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 67 nationally · San José State: opponents faced (9 games): average offense SP+ rank 94 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Northern Illinois offense | San José State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 326 #122 | 377 #87 |
| Rush yards | 118 #116 | 154 #85 |
| Pass yards | 208 #94 | 223 #87 |
| Plays | 63 | 71 |
| 3rd down % | 33% #119 | 37% #57 |
| Turnovers | 2 #114 | 1 #58 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 14 (#134 nat'l) | 27 (#75 nat'l) |
San José State Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
San José State offense: 9 games this season · Northern Illinois defense: 8 games this season
San José State: opponents faced (9 games): average defense SP+ rank 69 nationally · Northern Illinois: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 76 nationally
| Stat (per game) | San José State offense | Northern Illinois defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 348 #105 | 433 #130 |
| Rush yards | 120 #113 | 219 #133 |
| Pass yards | 228 #68 | 214 #74 |
| Plays | 65 | 66 |
| 3rd down % | 32% #127 | 60% #138 |
| Turnovers | 1 #47 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 16 (#126 nat'l) | 38 (#135 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Northern Illinois | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 326 | 348 |
| Rush yards | 118 | 120 |
| Pass yards | 208 | 228 |
| Plays | 63 | 65 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
Northern Illinois Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. San José State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for San José State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. San José State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Dickens (Passing) | 192 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm | 8 | ~218 yds · 1.0 TD (San José State defense: SP+ #75 nat'l, 223 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Telly Johnson Jr. (Rushing) | 68 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 8 | ~77 yds · 0.6 TD (San José State defense: SP+ #75 nat'l, 154 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Elijah Porter (Rushing) | 26 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~30 yds · 0.3 TD (San José State defense: SP+ #75 nat'l, 154 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| DeAree Rogers (Receiving) | 71 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 8 | ~81 yds · 0.6 TD (San José State defense: SP+ #75 nat'l, 223 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| La'Don Bryant (Receiving) | 40 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~45 yds · 0.1 TD (San José State defense: SP+ #75 nat'l, 223 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| George Dimopoulos (Receiving) | 33 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 6 | ~38 yds · 0.2 TD (San José State defense: SP+ #75 nat'l, 223 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taron Dickens | 1617 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| Brady Davidson | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Macon | 20 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Telly Johnson Jr. | 103 | 574 | 5 | 8 |
| Elijah Porter | 54 | 233 | 2 | 8 |
| Jaidaun Cranford | 9 | 67 | 0 | 5 |
| Taron Dickens | 55 | 64 | 0 | 8 |
| DeAree Rogers | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAree Rogers | 64 | 633 | 5 | 8 |
| La'Don Bryant | 26 | 324 | 1 | 8 |
| George Dimopoulos | 18 | 241 | 1 | 6 |
| Cam Thompson | 16 | 164 | 1 | 7 |
| Kelan McInerney | 4 | 60 | 0 | 2 |
San José State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Northern Illinois
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Northern Illinois's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver (Passing) | 223 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~350 yds · 2.0 TD (Northern Illinois defense: SP+ #135 nat'l, 214 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jabari Bates (Rushing) | 79 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~124 yds · 0.2 TD (Northern Illinois defense: SP+ #135 nat'l, 219 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Viliami Teu (Rushing) | 30 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~47 yds · 0.5 TD (Northern Illinois defense: SP+ #135 nat'l, 219 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Carson Clark (Receiving) | 69 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 9 | ~108 yds · 0.8 TD (Northern Illinois defense: SP+ #135 nat'l, 214 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cooper Hoch (Receiving) | 50 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 6 | ~79 yds · 0.6 TD (Northern Illinois defense: SP+ #135 nat'l, 214 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jerry Mcclure (Receiving) | 32 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 9 | ~51 yds · 0.2 TD (Northern Illinois defense: SP+ #135 nat'l, 214 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 1810 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| Daniel Rolovich | 193 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Robert McDaniel | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tama Amisone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Bates | 153 | 649 | 1 | 8 |
| Viliami Teu | 49 | 293 | 3 | 8 |
| Isaiah Carlson | 16 | 62 | 0 | 5 |
| Luke Weaver | 62 | 58 | 1 | 8 |
| Daniel Rolovich | 10 | 37 | 0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Clark | 55 | 642 | 5 | 9 |
| Cooper Hoch | 23 | 338 | 3 | 6 |
| Jerry Mcclure | 32 | 308 | 1 | 9 |
| Anthony Ivey | 14 | 279 | 0 | 5 |
| Dominique McKenzie | 7 | 132 | 0 | 5 |