New Mexico @ Nevada

2026-11-07T02:00:00.000Z · Mackay Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies New Mexico by 9.9 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Nevada +12.5, O/U 43.5

Flags

New Mexico

🟢 side New Mexico is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 2.1/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
🟡 side New Mexico averages 213 rush yds/game (8 games) — Nevada allows 162 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: New Mexico #36 nat'l, Nevada #89 nat'l.

Nevada

🟡 side Nevada is committing more turnovers than it forces by 1.6/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (New Mexico allows 258, Nevada allows 318) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: New Mexico #20 nat'l defense, Nevada #55 nat'l.

New Mexico Offense vs. Nevada Defense

New Mexico offense: 8 games this season · Nevada defense: 8 games this season

New Mexico: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 75 nationally · Nevada: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 98 nationally

Stat (per game)	New Mexico offense	Nevada defense allowed
Total yards	361 #88	318 #33
Rush yards	213 #14	162 #98
Pass yards	148 #131	156 #8
Plays	62	66
3rd down %	38% #89	30% #10
Turnovers	1 #35	0 #138
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	27 (#68 nat'l)	25 (#55 nat'l)

Nevada Offense vs. New Mexico Defense

Nevada offense: 8 games this season · New Mexico defense: 8 games this season

Nevada: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 78 nationally · New Mexico: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 114 nationally

Stat (per game)	Nevada offense	New Mexico defense allowed
Total yards	334 #115	258 #4
Rush yards	165 #58	82 #5
Pass yards	169 #126	176 #17
Plays	65	59
3rd down %	38% #87	32% #27
Turnovers	2 #134	3 #2
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	21 (#107 nat'l)	18 (#20 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	New Mexico	Nevada
Total yards	361	334
Rush yards	213	165
Pass yards	148	169
Plays	62	65
Turnovers	1	2

New Mexico Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Nevada

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Nevada's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Nevada
Toa Faavae (Passing)	101 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~100 yds · 0.5 TD (Nevada defense: SP+ #55 nat'l, 156 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Scottre Humphrey (Rushing)	59 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm	8	~58 yds · 1.2 TD (Nevada defense: SP+ #55 nat'l, 162 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kiefer Sibley (Rushing)	61 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~60 yds · 0.4 TD (Nevada defense: SP+ #55 nat'l, 162 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Cade Keith (Receiving)	48 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	7	~48 yds · 0.4 TD (Nevada defense: SP+ #55 nat'l, 156 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Bailen George (Receiving)	37 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	6	~36 yds · 0.3 TD (Nevada defense: SP+ #55 nat'l, 156 raw yds/gm allowed here)
DJ Darling (Receiving)	25 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	4	~25 yds · 0.2 TD (Nevada defense: SP+ #55 nat'l, 156 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Toa Faavae	888	5	7	8
Luke Moga	248	3	0	4
Bailen George	35	0	0	1
Dorian Patterson	10	0	0	1
James Laubstein	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Scottre Humphrey	111	540	11	8
Kiefer Sibley	80	485	3	8
Toa Faavae	76	285	2	8
Cameron Mathews	20	149	1	3
James Laubstein	20	88	5	6

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Cade Keith	22	295	3	7
Bailen George	13	262	3	6
DJ Darling	6	132	1	4
Troy Omeire	6	112	1	3
Massiah Mingo	9	100	0	5

Nevada Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. New Mexico

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for New Mexico's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. New Mexico
Carter Jones (Passing)	123 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	4	~91 yds · 0.4 TD (New Mexico defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dominic Kelley (Rushing)	63 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~47 yds · 0.3 TD (New Mexico defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 82 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Herschel Turner (Rushing)	52 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~38 yds · 0.3 TD (New Mexico defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 82 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Gary Givens III (Receiving)	44 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	6	~32 yds · 0.2 TD (New Mexico defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Marshaun Brown (Receiving)	32 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	7	~23 yds · 0.2 TD (New Mexico defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Damien Moun (Receiving)	21 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	7	~16 yds · 0.0 TD (New Mexico defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Carter Jones	654	3	2	4
AJ Bianco	397	2	3	5
Luke Duncan	265	2	5	4
Marshaun Brown	32	1	0	2
Reeve Slone	4	0	2	2

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Dominic Kelley	118	588	5	8
Herschel Turner	82	508	4	8
AJ Bianco	21	76	2	5
Ky Woods	15	57	0	6
Carter Jones	29	57	1	4

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Gary Givens III	19	305	1	6
Marshaun Brown	16	199	2	7
Damien Moun	31	179	0	7
Donnie Cheers	8	162	1	5
Herschel Turner	9	124	1	6