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Hawai'i @ UTEP
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Sun Bowl
Power rating (SP+) implies Hawai'i
by 12.4
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): UTEP +10.5 (opened +11.5),
O/U 49.5
Flags
Hawai'i
- 🟡 side Hawai'i averages 275 pass yds/game (8 games) — UTEP allows 209 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Hawai'i #107 nat'l, UTEP #134 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- 🟢 total Hawai'i averages 71 plays/game (8 games) vs. UTEP's 58 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Hawai'i Offense vs. UTEP Defense
Hawai'i offense: 8 games this season ·
UTEP defense: 8 games this season
Hawai'i: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 79 nationally ·
UTEP: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 85 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Hawai'i offense | UTEP defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 365 #85 | 396 #110 |
| Rush yards | 90 #136 | 187 #120 |
| Pass yards | 275 #23 | 209 #68 |
| Plays | 71 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #81 | 47% #126 |
| Turnovers | 1 #48 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 19 (#112 nat'l) | 37 (#130 nat'l) |
UTEP Offense vs. Hawai'i Defense
UTEP offense: 8 games this season ·
Hawai'i defense: 8 games this season
UTEP: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 33 nationally ·
Hawai'i: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 103 nationally
| Stat (per game) | UTEP offense | Hawai'i defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 280 #137 | 370 #79 |
| Rush yards | 136 #100 | 172 #106 |
| Pass yards | 144 #132 | 198 #46 |
| Plays | 58 | 61 |
| 3rd down % | 26% #138 | 38% #61 |
| Turnovers | 2 #114 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 13 (#137 nat'l) | 29 (#91 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Hawai'i | UTEP |
|---|
| Total yards | 365 | 280 |
| Rush yards | 90 | 136 |
| Pass yards | 275 | 144 |
| Plays | 71 | 58 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
Hawai'i Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UTEP
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UTEP's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. UTEP |
|---|
| Micah Alejado (Passing) |
241 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
8 |
~371 yds · 1.5 TD
(UTEP defense: SP+ #130 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Devon Rice (Rushing) |
40 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~62 yds · 0.8 TD
(UTEP defense: SP+ #130 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cam Barfield (Rushing) |
23 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
6 |
~35 yds · 0.2 TD
(UTEP defense: SP+ #130 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kainoa Carvalho (Receiving) |
45 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~70 yds · 0.0 TD
(UTEP defense: SP+ #130 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Devin Alves (Receiving) |
45 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~69 yds · 0.2 TD
(UTEP defense: SP+ #130 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Audric Harris (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~54 yds · 0.2 TD
(UTEP defense: SP+ #130 nat'l, 209 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Micah Alejado |
2186 | 9 | 6 |
8 |
| Bjorn Jurgensen |
13 | 0 | 0 |
4 |
| Tama Uiliata |
7 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Devon Rice |
82 | 385 | 6 |
8 |
| Cam Barfield |
45 | 150 | 1 |
6 |
| Sitani Mikaele |
27 | 87 | 1 |
6 |
| Tama Uiliata |
7 | 44 | 0 |
4 |
| TJ Fo'ilefutu |
5 | 25 | 1 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kainoa Carvalho |
35 | 399 | 0 |
8 |
| Devin Alves |
16 | 312 | 1 |
7 |
| Audric Harris |
16 | 308 | 1 |
7 |
| Tama Uiliata |
32 | 281 | 1 |
7 |
| Titan Lacaden |
26 | 171 | 1 |
8 |
UTEP Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Hawai'i
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Hawai'i's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Hawai'i |
|---|
| EJ Colson (Passing) |
114 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~143 yds · 1.5 TD
(Hawai'i defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Raymond Moore III (Rushing) |
74 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~92 yds · 0.6 TD
(Hawai'i defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 172 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tavorus Jones (Rushing) |
44 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~55 yds · 0.2 TD
(Hawai'i defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 172 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kam Thomas (Receiving) |
49 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
6 |
~62 yds · 0.2 TD
(Hawai'i defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaden Smith (Receiving) |
41 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~52 yds · 0.2 TD
(Hawai'i defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Carver Cheeks (Receiving) |
34 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~42 yds · 0.6 TD
(Hawai'i defense: SP+ #91 nat'l, 198 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| EJ Colson |
687 | 7 | 5 |
7 |
| Raymond Moore III |
437 | 2 | 2 |
7 |
| Braesen Leon |
22 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Jaden Smith |
8 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Raymond Moore III |
70 | 481 | 3 |
8 |
| Tavorus Jones |
66 | 276 | 1 |
7 |
| EJ Colson |
85 | 129 | 1 |
7 |
| Lamar Sperling |
22 | 74 | 0 |
6 |
| Elijah McCoy |
8 | 38 | 0 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kam Thomas |
19 | 283 | 1 |
6 |
| Jaden Smith |
34 | 274 | 1 |
7 |
| Carver Cheeks |
17 | 187 | 3 |
7 |
| Cash Cheeks |
9 | 118 | 3 |
6 |
| Jeremiah Nash |
8 | 82 | 0 |
4 |