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Air Force @ Army
2026-11-08T00:30:00.000Z
· Michie Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Army
by 4.3
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Army -5.5 (opened -6.0),
O/U 51.5
Flags
Air Force
- 🟢 side Air Force averages 341 rush yds/game (8 games) — Army allows 152 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Air Force #73 nat'l, Army #66 nat'l.
Army
- 🟢 side Army averages 342 rush yds/game (8 games) — Air Force allows 129 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Army #66 nat'l, Air Force #73 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- 🟡 total Air Force averages 73 plays/game (8 games) vs. Army's 64 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Air Force Offense vs. Army Defense
Air Force offense: 8 games this season ·
Army defense: 8 games this season
Air Force: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 76 nationally ·
Army: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 68 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Air Force offense | Army defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 398 #55 | 396 #111 |
| Rush yards | 341 #2 | 152 #81 |
| Pass yards | 58 #138 | 244 #112 |
| Plays | 73 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 52% #10 | 51% #135 |
| Turnovers | 1 #25 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 27 (#70 nat'l) | 30 (#96 nat'l) |
Army Offense vs. Air Force Defense
Army offense: 8 games this season ·
Air Force defense: 8 games this season
Army: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 88 nationally ·
Air Force: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 90 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Army offense | Air Force defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 414 #46 | 305 #23 |
| Rush yards | 342 #1 | 129 #50 |
| Pass yards | 71 #137 | 176 #18 |
| Plays | 64 | 52 |
| 3rd down % | 47% #22 | 36% #45 |
| Turnovers | 0 #4 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 30 (#43 nat'l) | 28 (#80 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Air Force | Army |
|---|
| Total yards | 398 | 414 |
| Rush yards | 341 | 342 |
| Pass yards | 58 | 71 |
| Plays | 73 | 64 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
Air Force Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Army
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Army's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Army |
|---|
| Liam Szarka (Passing) |
79 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
4 |
~102 yds · 0.3 TD
(Army defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Evan Medders (Rushing) |
72 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
6 |
~92 yds · 1.0 TD
(Army defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 152 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Owen Allen (Rushing) |
50 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~64 yds · 0.3 TD
(Army defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 152 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Simon Kibbee (Receiving) |
28 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
5 |
~36 yds · 0.0 TD
(Army defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Matt Long (Receiving) |
26 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
5 |
~34 yds · 0.6 TD
(Army defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Adam Hrynciw (Receiving) |
25 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
4 |
~33 yds · 0.4 TD
(Army defense: SP+ #96 nat'l, 244 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Liam Szarka |
296 | 1 | 4 |
4 |
| Evan Medders |
92 | 2 | 0 |
5 |
| Howard Fisher IV |
36 | 0 | 0 |
2 |
| Mason Hayes |
29 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Josh Johnson |
20 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Evan Medders |
73 | 490 | 6 |
6 |
| Owen Allen |
106 | 446 | 3 |
8 |
| Kemper Hodges |
71 | 401 | 6 |
7 |
| Rocco Conti |
62 | 394 | 2 |
8 |
| Liam Szarka |
92 | 391 | 7 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Simon Kibbee |
8 | 135 | 0 |
5 |
| Matt Long |
7 | 110 | 2 |
5 |
| Adam Hrynciw |
5 | 89 | 1 |
4 |
| Jonah Dawson |
3 | 39 | 0 |
1 |
| Sylas Maiava-Alaimalo |
2 | 34 | 0 |
1 |
Army Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Air Force
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Air Force's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Air Force |
|---|
| Cale Hellums (Passing) |
52 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~61 yds · 0.6 TD
(Air Force defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cale Hellums (Rushing) |
88 yds/gm · 1.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~104 yds · 1.9 TD
(Air Force defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 129 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Godspower Nwawuihe (Rushing) |
66 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
6 |
~77 yds · 0.7 TD
(Air Force defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 129 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Bradyn Anderson (Receiving) |
28 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
5 |
~32 yds · 0.0 TD
(Air Force defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Samari Howard (Receiving) |
20 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
6 |
~23 yds · 0.2 TD
(Air Force defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Zach Mundell (Receiving) |
17 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
6 |
~20 yds · 0.2 TD
(Air Force defense: SP+ #80 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Cale Hellums |
462 | 4 | 2 |
8 |
| Zach Mundell |
82 | 0 | 0 |
3 |
| Ethan Washington |
13 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Bryson Luter |
12 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Cale Hellums |
172 | 874 | 17 |
8 |
| Godspower Nwawuihe |
79 | 455 | 4 |
6 |
| Samari Howard |
44 | 384 | 2 |
8 |
| Zach Mundell |
15 | 267 | 3 |
6 |
| Jake Rendina |
34 | 193 | 1 |
8 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Bradyn Anderson |
10 | 163 | 0 |
5 |
| Samari Howard |
13 | 131 | 1 |
6 |
| Zach Mundell |
10 | 111 | 1 |
6 |
| Tobi Olawole |
3 | 52 | 0 |
3 |
| Parker Poloskey |
3 | 28 | 1 |
2 |