Temple @ Navy
2026-11-07T20:30:00.000Z · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Navy by 8.6 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Navy -7.5, O/U 52.5
Flags
Temple
- side Temple averages 192 rush yds/game (8 games) — Navy allows 121 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Temple #99 nat'l, Navy #80 nat'l.
Navy
- side Navy averages 296 rush yds/game (8 games) — Temple allows 173 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Navy #80 nat'l, Temple #99 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- total Navy averages 65 plays/game (8 games) vs. Temple's 58 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Temple Offense vs. Navy Defense
Temple offense: 8 games this season · Navy defense: 8 games this season
Temple: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 77 nationally · Navy: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 51 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Temple offense | Navy defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 369 #81 | 373 #83 |
| Rush yards | 192 #30 | 121 #35 |
| Pass yards | 177 #122 | 252 #120 |
| Plays | 58 | 61 |
| 3rd down % | 40% #77 | 44% #121 |
| Turnovers | 1 #48 | 0 #137 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#79 nat'l) | 30 (#101 nat'l) |
Navy Offense vs. Temple Defense
Navy offense: 8 games this season · Temple defense: 8 games this season
Navy: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 87 nationally · Temple: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 73 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Navy offense | Temple defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 404 #52 | 398 #112 |
| Rush yards | 296 #3 | 173 #107 |
| Pass yards | 109 #135 | 225 #90 |
| Plays | 65 | 67 |
| 3rd down % | 42% #52 | 48% #130 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 29 (#52 nat'l) | 33 (#117 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Temple | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 369 | 404 |
| Rush yards | 192 | 296 |
| Pass yards | 177 | 109 |
| Plays | 58 | 65 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Temple Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Navy
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Navy's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Navy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajani Sheppard (Passing) | 131 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm | 8 | ~174 yds · 1.1 TD (Navy defense: SP+ #101 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Keveun Mason (Rushing) | 66 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~87 yds · 0.4 TD (Navy defense: SP+ #101 nat'l, 121 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ajani Sheppard (Rushing) | 44 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 8 | ~58 yds · 0.7 TD (Navy defense: SP+ #101 nat'l, 121 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Colin Chase (Receiving) | 39 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~52 yds · 0.3 TD (Navy defense: SP+ #101 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Peter Clarke (Receiving) | 44 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 5 | ~58 yds · 0.4 TD (Navy defense: SP+ #101 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jayce Freeman (Receiving) | 29 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~39 yds · 0.2 TD (Navy defense: SP+ #101 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajani Sheppard | 1245 | 8 | 3 | 8 |
| Jaxon Smolik | 129 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Colin Chase | 39 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keveun Mason | 102 | 564 | 3 | 8 |
| Ajani Sheppard | 81 | 400 | 5 | 8 |
| Samuel Brown V | 28 | 206 | 2 | 3 |
| Hunter Smith | 31 | 119 | 0 | 5 |
| Jaxon Smolik | 18 | 81 | 0 | 4 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Chase | 20 | 330 | 2 | 7 |
| Peter Clarke | 18 | 273 | 2 | 5 |
| Jayce Freeman | 17 | 254 | 1 | 8 |
| Jovanni Bermudez | 17 | 243 | 2 | 7 |
| Samuel Brown V | 7 | 129 | 2 | 3 |
Navy Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Temple
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Temple's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Temple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Gutierrez (Passing) | 81 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 7 | ~117 yds · 1.1 TD (Temple defense: SP+ #117 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jackson Gutierrez (Rushing) | 104 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~150 yds · 2.0 TD (Temple defense: SP+ #117 nat'l, 173 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Michael Barrow (Rushing) | 56 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~80 yds · 0.1 TD (Temple defense: SP+ #117 nat'l, 173 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jordan Collins (Receiving) | 41 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 4 | ~59 yds · 0.8 TD (Temple defense: SP+ #117 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Truman Brasfield (Receiving) | 35 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 4 | ~50 yds · 0.6 TD (Temple defense: SP+ #117 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Luke Hutchison (Receiving) | 28 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 3 | ~41 yds · 0.0 TD (Temple defense: SP+ #117 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Gutierrez | 717 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| Braxton Woodson | 152 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Gutierrez | 177 | 982 | 13 | 8 |
| Michael Barrow | 91 | 504 | 1 | 8 |
| Braxton Woodson | 49 | 384 | 5 | 5 |
| Vic Listorti | 46 | 251 | 2 | 8 |
| Charles Robinson | 11 | 72 | 1 | 3 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Collins | 6 | 212 | 3 | 4 |
| Truman Brasfield | 4 | 174 | 2 | 4 |
| Luke Hutchison | 5 | 92 | 0 | 3 |
| Charles Robinson | 10 | 85 | 1 | 4 |
| Vic Listorti | 5 | 75 | 0 | 4 |