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Charlotte @ UAB
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Protective Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies UAB
by 17.5
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): UAB -10.5 (opened -10.0),
O/U 51.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 7.0 pts more toward
UAB than the market line does.
Flags
Charlotte
- 🟢 side Charlotte averages 205 pass yds/game (8 games) — UAB allows 116 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Charlotte #136 nat'l, UAB #110 nat'l.
- 🟡 side Charlotte is committing more turnovers than it forces by 1.2/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Charlotte Offense vs. UAB Defense
Charlotte offense: 8 games this season ·
UAB defense: 8 games this season
Charlotte: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 87 nationally ·
UAB: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 69 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Charlotte offense | UAB defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 329 #118 | 307 #25 |
| Rush yards | 124 #111 | 191 #124 |
| Pass yards | 205 #98 | 116 #1 |
| Plays | 60 | 63 |
| 3rd down % | 34% #118 | 40% #93 |
| Turnovers | 2 #134 | 1 #60 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 16 (#128 nat'l) | 30 (#103 nat'l) |
UAB Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
UAB offense: 8 games this season ·
Charlotte defense: 8 games this season
UAB: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 81 nationally ·
Charlotte: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 56 nationally
| Stat (per game) | UAB offense | Charlotte defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 319 #125 | 465 #135 |
| Rush yards | 149 #79 | 187 #119 |
| Pass yards | 170 #125 | 279 #133 |
| Plays | 66 | 71 |
| 3rd down % | 40% #73 | 47% #127 |
| Turnovers | 2 #103 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 20 (#109 nat'l) | 41 (#138 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Charlotte | UAB |
|---|
| Total yards | 329 | 319 |
| Rush yards | 124 | 149 |
| Pass yards | 205 | 170 |
| Plays | 60 | 66 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Charlotte Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UAB
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UAB's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. UAB |
|---|
| Conner Harrell (Passing) |
127 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
5 |
~170 yds · 1.0 TD
(UAB defense: SP+ #103 nat'l, 116 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Henry Rutledge (Rushing) |
46 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~61 yds · 0.2 TD
(UAB defense: SP+ #103 nat'l, 191 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Khamani Alexander (Rushing) |
33 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~44 yds · 0.7 TD
(UAB defense: SP+ #103 nat'l, 191 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaden Barnes (Receiving) |
49 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~66 yds · 0.1 TD
(UAB defense: SP+ #103 nat'l, 116 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Derrick Eley (Receiving) |
43 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~57 yds · 0.5 TD
(UAB defense: SP+ #103 nat'l, 116 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaylen Hampton (Receiving) |
44 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~59 yds · 0.4 TD
(UAB defense: SP+ #103 nat'l, 116 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Conner Harrell |
831 | 5 | 2 |
5 |
| Cole Gonzales |
802 | 3 | 7 |
5 |
| Jaylen White |
5 | 0 | 0 |
4 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Henry Rutledge |
74 | 452 | 1 |
8 |
| Khamani Alexander |
62 | 291 | 5 |
8 |
| Chance Williams |
20 | 116 | 0 |
2 |
| D'Mariun Perteet |
21 | 74 | 0 |
4 |
| Conner Harrell |
26 | 46 | 2 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jaden Barnes |
49 | 475 | 1 |
8 |
| Derrick Eley |
23 | 409 | 4 |
8 |
| Jaylen Hampton |
25 | 298 | 2 |
6 |
| Brody Dawyot |
10 | 108 | 0 |
4 |
| Henry Rutledge |
9 | 93 | 0 |
4 |
UAB Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Charlotte
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Charlotte's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Charlotte |
|---|
| Ryder Burton (Passing) |
149 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~237 yds · 1.0 TD
(Charlotte defense: SP+ #138 nat'l, 279 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Roderick Robinson II (Rushing) |
48 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~76 yds · 0.2 TD
(Charlotte defense: SP+ #138 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Braylon McReynolds (Rushing) |
38 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~60 yds · 0.6 TD
(Charlotte defense: SP+ #138 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| C.J. Smith (Receiving) |
46 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~74 yds · 0.2 TD
(Charlotte defense: SP+ #138 nat'l, 279 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tiaquelin Mims (Receiving) |
39 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~61 yds · 0.2 TD
(Charlotte defense: SP+ #138 nat'l, 279 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| EJ Reid (Receiving) |
18 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~29 yds · 0.1 TD
(Charlotte defense: SP+ #138 nat'l, 279 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Ryder Burton |
1333 | 6 | 5 |
8 |
| Nate Rogers |
24 | 0 | 0 |
4 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Roderick Robinson II |
108 | 450 | 1 |
8 |
| Braylon McReynolds |
80 | 357 | 4 |
8 |
| Ja'Vin Simpkins |
39 | 168 | 1 |
8 |
| KJ Daniels |
4 | 79 | 0 |
3 |
| Nate Rogers |
10 | 52 | 1 |
6 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| C.J. Smith |
21 | 403 | 1 |
8 |
| Tiaquelin Mims |
21 | 352 | 1 |
8 |
| EJ Reid |
23 | 179 | 1 |
8 |
| Roderick Robinson II |
7 | 72 | 2 |
5 |
| Kaleb Brown |
4 | 67 | 0 |
3 |