South Florida @ East Carolina
2026-11-07T00:30:00.000Z · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies South Florida by 3.7 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): East Carolina +1.5, O/U 45.5
Flags
Head-to-head
- total East Carolina averages 68 plays/game (8 games) vs. South Florida's 59 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
South Florida Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
South Florida offense: 8 games this season · East Carolina defense: 8 games this season
South Florida: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 99 nationally · East Carolina: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 79 nationally
| Stat (per game) | South Florida offense | East Carolina defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 315 #129 | 336 #48 |
| Rush yards | 148 #80 | 140 #67 |
| Pass yards | 167 #128 | 197 #43 |
| Plays | 59 | 69 |
| 3rd down % | 40% #66 | 32% #22 |
| Turnovers | 0 #4 | 2 #31 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#72 nat'l) | 26 (#70 nat'l) |
East Carolina Offense vs. South Florida Defense
East Carolina offense: 8 games this season · South Florida defense: 8 games this season
East Carolina: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 85 nationally · South Florida: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 93 nationally
| Stat (per game) | East Carolina offense | South Florida defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 351 #101 | 307 #24 |
| Rush yards | 165 #59 | 128 #49 |
| Pass yards | 186 #114 | 178 #22 |
| Plays | 68 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 31% #130 | 35% #43 |
| Turnovers | 2 #126 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 22 (#105 nat'l) | 24 (#54 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | South Florida | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 315 | 351 |
| Rush yards | 148 | 165 |
| Pass yards | 167 | 186 |
| Plays | 59 | 68 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 2 |
South Florida Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. East Carolina
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for East Carolina's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. East Carolina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Van Buren Jr. (Passing) | 131 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 8 | ~144 yds · 0.7 TD (East Carolina defense: SP+ #70 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| D.J. Crowther (Rushing) | 58 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 8 | ~63 yds · 0.9 TD (East Carolina defense: SP+ #70 nat'l, 140 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jason Collins Jr. (Rushing) | 25 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 8 | ~28 yds · 0.2 TD (East Carolina defense: SP+ #70 nat'l, 140 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Bryson Rodgers (Receiving) | 36 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 8 | ~40 yds · 0.2 TD (East Carolina defense: SP+ #70 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Joshua Porter (Receiving) | 33 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~36 yds · 0.3 TD (East Carolina defense: SP+ #70 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cameron Seldon (Receiving) | 23 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 6 | ~26 yds · 0.1 TD (East Carolina defense: SP+ #70 nat'l, 197 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Van Buren Jr. | 1273 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| Luke Kromenhoek | 60 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Crowther | 121 | 578 | 7 | 8 |
| Jason Collins Jr. | 52 | 244 | 2 | 8 |
| Luke Kromenhoek | 27 | 122 | 4 | 6 |
| Michael Van Buren Jr. | 52 | 100 | 2 | 8 |
| Tray Kinkle | 5 | 67 | 0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson Rodgers | 33 | 345 | 2 | 8 |
| Joshua Porter | 23 | 274 | 2 | 7 |
| Cameron Seldon | 14 | 186 | 1 | 6 |
| Mudia Reuben | 9 | 121 | 0 | 5 |
| Arhmad Branch | 11 | 108 | 0 | 3 |
East Carolina Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. South Florida
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for South Florida's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. South Florida |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Griffis (Passing) | 99 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 7 | ~98 yds · 0.5 TD (South Florida defense: SP+ #54 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| TJ Engleman (Rushing) | 70 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 8 | ~69 yds · 0.5 TD (South Florida defense: SP+ #54 nat'l, 128 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ashton Gray (Rushing) | 32 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~32 yds · 0.2 TD (South Florida defense: SP+ #54 nat'l, 128 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Nathaniel Joseph (Receiving) | 35 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~34 yds · 0.3 TD (South Florida defense: SP+ #54 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Landon Sides (Receiving) | 39 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 5 | ~38 yds · 0.2 TD (South Florida defense: SP+ #54 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jeremiah Melvin (Receiving) | 46 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 4 | ~45 yds · 0.4 TD (South Florida defense: SP+ #54 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Griffis | 753 | 4 | 5 | 7 |
| Emory Williams | 716 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| Jason Dickerson | 25 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyler Pearson | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Engleman | 105 | 689 | 5 | 8 |
| Ashton Gray | 70 | 279 | 2 | 7 |
| Mitch Griffis | 39 | 118 | 0 | 7 |
| Michael Allen | 37 | 117 | 1 | 7 |
| Emory Williams | 32 | 73 | 1 | 6 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Joseph | 33 | 303 | 3 | 8 |
| Landon Sides | 19 | 232 | 1 | 5 |
| Jeremiah Melvin | 13 | 188 | 1 | 4 |
| Jason Dickerson | 14 | 166 | 1 | 8 |
| Tyler Johnson | 8 | 144 | 0 | 5 |