UTSA @ Florida Atlantic

2026-11-06T01:00:00.000Z · FAU Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies UTSA by 4.4 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Florida Atlantic +7.5 (opened +6.5), O/U 72.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 3.1 pts more toward Florida Atlantic than the market line does.

Flags

Florida Atlantic

🟢 side Florida Atlantic averages 329 pass yds/game (8 games) — UTSA allows 208 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Florida Atlantic #90 nat'l, UTSA #59 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟡 total Florida Atlantic averages 77 plays/game (8 games) vs. UTSA's 67 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.

UTSA Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense

UTSA offense: 8 games this season · Florida Atlantic defense: 8 games this season

UTSA: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 86 nationally · Florida Atlantic: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 72 nationally

Stat (per game)	UTSA offense	Florida Atlantic defense allowed
Total yards	409 #49	469 #136
Rush yards	185 #40	256 #137
Pass yards	224 #73	213 #73
Plays	67	67
3rd down %	42% #49	42% #108
Turnovers	1 #15	1 #45
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	32 (#38 nat'l)	34 (#123 nat'l)

Florida Atlantic Offense vs. UTSA Defense

Florida Atlantic offense: 8 games this season · UTSA defense: 8 games this season

Florida Atlantic: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 97 nationally · UTSA: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 63 nationally

Stat (per game)	Florida Atlantic offense	UTSA defense allowed
Total yards	440 #25	392 #104
Rush yards	110 #122	183 #116
Pass yards	329 #5	208 #61
Plays	77	71
3rd down %	53% #6	38% #72
Turnovers	1 #48	2 #23
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	30 (#44 nat'l)	28 (#82 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	UTSA	Florida Atlantic
Total yards	409	440
Rush yards	185	110
Pass yards	224	329
Plays	67	77
Turnovers	1	1

UTSA Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Florida Atlantic

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Florida Atlantic's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Florida Atlantic
Owen McCown (Passing)	183 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm	8	~272 yds · 1.5 TD (Florida Atlantic defense: SP+ #123 nat'l, 213 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Will Henderson III (Rushing)	71 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~105 yds · 0.7 TD (Florida Atlantic defense: SP+ #123 nat'l, 256 raw yds/gm allowed here)
A'Marion Peterson (Rushing)	40 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm	8	~60 yds · 1.6 TD (Florida Atlantic defense: SP+ #123 nat'l, 256 raw yds/gm allowed here)
DJ Allen (Receiving)	42 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	7	~62 yds · 0.3 TD (Florida Atlantic defense: SP+ #123 nat'l, 213 raw yds/gm allowed here)
David Amador (Receiving)	35 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~52 yds · 0.1 TD (Florida Atlantic defense: SP+ #123 nat'l, 213 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Mekhi Anderson (Receiving)	32 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~47 yds · 0.4 TD (Florida Atlantic defense: SP+ #123 nat'l, 213 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Owen McCown	1751	10	4	8
David Amador	44	1	0	2
Brandon Tennison	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Will Henderson III	109	662	5	8
A'Marion Peterson	57	354	10	8
Brandon High	63	289	3	8
Owen McCown	42	116	1	8
Mekhi Anderson	3	54	0	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
DJ Allen	25	347	2	7
David Amador	40	335	1	8
Mekhi Anderson	29	317	3	8
AJ Wilson	21	276	1	8
Brandon Young Jr.	11	108	3	7

Florida Atlantic Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UTSA

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UTSA's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. UTSA
Caden Veltkamp (Passing)	252 yds/gm · 2.2 TD/gm	8	~299 yds · 2.7 TD (UTSA defense: SP+ #82 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ethan Ervin (Rushing)	36 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~43 yds · 0.3 TD (UTSA defense: SP+ #82 nat'l, 183 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Leonard Farrow (Rushing)	34 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~41 yds · 0.2 TD (UTSA defense: SP+ #82 nat'l, 183 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Easton Messer (Receiving)	89 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~106 yds · 1.0 TD (UTSA defense: SP+ #82 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kelby Valsin (Receiving)	77 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~91 yds · 0.8 TD (UTSA defense: SP+ #82 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dom Henry (Receiving)	48 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	7	~57 yds · 0.3 TD (UTSA defense: SP+ #82 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Caden Veltkamp	2534	23	5	8
Drew Devillier	79	0	0	4
Jordan Magwood	16	0	0	1
Jeremiah Daoud	6	0	0	1
Easton Messer	0	0	0	2

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Ethan Ervin	91	369	2	8
Leonard Farrow	76	353	2	8
Brady Tillman	29	123	1	6
Kaden Shields-Dutton	21	90	0	6
Almari Brown	5	21	1	1

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Easton Messer	72	891	9	8
Kelby Valsin	60	752	6	8
Dom Henry	39	440	3	7
Branden Hoch	13	152	2	5
Tucker Holloway	8	112	1	5