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Fresno State @ Utah State
2026-11-08T02:30:00.000Z
· Maverik Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Fresno State
by 9.3
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Utah State +2.5,
O/U 41.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 6.8 pts more toward
Fresno State than the market line does.
Flags
Fresno State
- 🟡 side Fresno State is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.1/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Fresno State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
Fresno State offense: 8 games this season ·
Utah State defense: 8 games this season
Fresno State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 85 nationally ·
Utah State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 57 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Fresno State offense | Utah State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 358 #95 | 334 #46 |
| Rush yards | 147 #86 | 126 #41 |
| Pass yards | 211 #88 | 208 #61 |
| Plays | 60 | 68 |
| 3rd down % | 37% #92 | 42% #112 |
| Turnovers | 1 #7 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#77 nat'l) | 26 (#67 nat'l) |
Utah State Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Utah State offense: 8 games this season ·
Fresno State defense: 8 games this season
Utah State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 76 nationally ·
Fresno State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 84 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Utah State offense | Fresno State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 326 #121 | 392 #105 |
| Rush yards | 130 #105 | 159 #92 |
| Pass yards | 196 #103 | 234 #99 |
| Plays | 63 | 69 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #82 | 36% #44 |
| Turnovers | 2 #103 | 2 #14 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 17 (#124 nat'l) | 23 (#49 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Fresno State | Utah State |
|---|
| Total yards | 358 | 326 |
| Rush yards | 147 | 130 |
| Pass yards | 211 | 196 |
| Plays | 60 | 63 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
Fresno State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Utah State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Utah State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Utah State |
|---|
| Jayden Mandal (Passing) |
165 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~178 yds · 1.1 TD
(Utah State defense: SP+ #67 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Bryson Donelson (Rushing) |
43 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~46 yds · 0.6 TD
(Utah State defense: SP+ #67 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rayshon Luke (Rushing) |
43 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~46 yds · 0.1 TD
(Utah State defense: SP+ #67 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Josiah Freeman (Receiving) |
60 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~65 yds · 0.6 TD
(Utah State defense: SP+ #67 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ezekiel Avit (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~41 yds · 0.5 TD
(Utah State defense: SP+ #67 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jahlil McClain (Receiving) |
31 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~33 yds · 0.1 TD
(Utah State defense: SP+ #67 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Jayden Mandal |
1595 | 10 | 2 |
8 |
| Khristian Martin |
71 | 1 | 0 |
2 |
| Jordan Malau'ulu |
21 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Bryson Donelson |
81 | 407 | 6 |
8 |
| Rayshon Luke |
61 | 377 | 1 |
7 |
| Jayden Mandal |
59 | 163 | 4 |
8 |
| Julius Gillick |
36 | 153 | 4 |
8 |
| Andrew Chavez |
3 | 19 | 0 |
3 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Josiah Freeman |
37 | 512 | 4 |
7 |
| Ezekiel Avit |
23 | 376 | 4 |
8 |
| Jahlil McClain |
20 | 252 | 1 |
7 |
| Jake Appleget |
8 | 108 | 0 |
5 |
| Rayshon Luke |
15 | 97 | 1 |
6 |
Utah State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Fresno State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Fresno State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Fresno State |
|---|
| Grady Brosterhous (Passing) |
153 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
7 |
~145 yds · 0.9 TD
(Fresno State defense: SP+ #49 nat'l, 234 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Javen Jacobs (Rushing) |
55 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~53 yds · 0.3 TD
(Fresno State defense: SP+ #49 nat'l, 159 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Grady Brosterhous (Rushing) |
38 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
7 |
~36 yds · 0.0 TD
(Fresno State defense: SP+ #49 nat'l, 159 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Eli Wood (Receiving) |
67 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
7 |
~64 yds · 0.7 TD
(Fresno State defense: SP+ #49 nat'l, 234 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Javon Robinson (Receiving) |
43 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~41 yds · 0.3 TD
(Fresno State defense: SP+ #49 nat'l, 234 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Anthony Garcia (Receiving) |
32 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
6 |
~30 yds · 0.0 TD
(Fresno State defense: SP+ #49 nat'l, 234 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Grady Brosterhous |
1120 | 7 | 6 |
7 |
| McCae Hillstead |
398 | 3 | 4 |
3 |
| Anthony Garcia |
50 | 1 | 0 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Javen Jacobs |
98 | 491 | 3 |
8 |
| Grady Brosterhous |
99 | 270 | 0 |
7 |
| McCae Hillstead |
26 | 132 | 1 |
3 |
| Noah White |
16 | 41 | 0 |
6 |
| Nehemiah Washington |
8 | 38 | 1 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Eli Wood |
37 | 479 | 5 |
7 |
| Javon Robinson |
19 | 267 | 2 |
6 |
| Anthony Garcia |
26 | 254 | 0 |
6 |
| Demick Starling |
10 | 139 | 1 |
5 |
| Nikko Boncore |
6 | 98 | 0 |
3 |