Texas State @ Oregon State

2026-11-08T03:30:00.000Z · Reser Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Oregon State by 7.6 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Oregon State -8.5, O/U 66.5

Flags

Texas State

🟢 side Texas State averages 251 rush yds/game (8 games) — Oregon State allows 146 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Texas State #65 nat'l, Oregon State #50 nat'l.
🟡 side Texas State averages 256 pass yds/game (8 games) — Oregon State allows 204 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Texas State #65 nat'l, Oregon State #50 nat'l.

Oregon State

🟡 side Oregon State averages 372 pass yds/game (8 games) — Texas State allows 295 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Oregon State #50 nat'l, Texas State #65 nat'l.

Texas State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense

Texas State offense: 8 games this season · Oregon State defense: 8 games this season

Texas State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 81 nationally · Oregon State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 74 nationally

Stat (per game)	Texas State offense	Oregon State defense allowed
Total yards	507 #6	350 #62
Rush yards	251 #6	146 #74
Pass yards	256 #35	204 #55
Plays	75	65
3rd down %	53% #4	39% #79
Turnovers	1 #76	1 #60
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	34 (#24 nat'l)	25 (#56 nat'l)

Oregon State Offense vs. Texas State Defense

Oregon State offense: 8 games this season · Texas State defense: 8 games this season

Oregon State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 83 nationally · Texas State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 54 nationally

Stat (per game)	Oregon State offense	Texas State defense allowed
Total yards	502 #7	410 #117
Rush yards	130 #104	115 #31
Pass yards	372 #1	295 #137
Plays	72	75
3rd down %	45% #32	40% #85
Turnovers	1 #15	1 #108
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	32 (#37 nat'l)	32 (#109 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Texas State	Oregon State
Total yards	507	502
Rush yards	251	130
Pass yards	256	372
Plays	75	72
Turnovers	1	1

Texas State Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Oregon State

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Oregon State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Oregon State
Brad Jackson (Passing)	216 yds/gm · 1.9 TD/gm	8	~215 yds · 1.9 TD (Oregon State defense: SP+ #56 nat'l, 204 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Torrance Burgess Jr. (Rushing)	93 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~93 yds · 0.4 TD (Oregon State defense: SP+ #56 nat'l, 146 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Brad Jackson (Rushing)	44 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~44 yds · 0.6 TD (Oregon State defense: SP+ #56 nat'l, 146 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Chris Dawn Jr. (Receiving)	52 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~52 yds · 0.5 TD (Oregon State defense: SP+ #56 nat'l, 204 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Beau Sparks (Receiving)	50 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	7	~50 yds · 0.4 TD (Oregon State defense: SP+ #56 nat'l, 204 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Zechariah Sample (Receiving)	40 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	6	~40 yds · 0.3 TD (Oregon State defense: SP+ #56 nat'l, 204 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Brad Jackson	1933	18	5	8
Gavin Parkhurst	114	1	0	2
Tucker Cusano	0	0	1	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Torrance Burgess Jr.	129	922	5	8
Brad Jackson	85	436	6	8
Davian Jackson	67	321	5	6
Jaylen Jenkins	38	196	1	6
Juntavious Harris	12	89	1	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Chris Dawn Jr.	41	467	5	8
Beau Sparks	30	402	3	7
Zechariah Sample	13	250	2	6
Kylen Evans	12	214	0	5
Tucker Cusano	12	168	0	6

Oregon State Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Texas State

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Texas State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Texas State
Braden Atkinson (Passing)	338 yds/gm · 2.6 TD/gm	8	~467 yds · 3.6 TD (Texas State defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 295 raw yds/gm allowed here)
AJ Newberry (Rushing)	45 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~63 yds · 0.4 TD (Texas State defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 115 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Cornell Hatcher Jr. (Rushing)	29 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~40 yds · 0.7 TD (Texas State defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 115 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jesse Legree (Receiving)	129 yds/gm · 1.5 TD/gm	8	~178 yds · 2.0 TD (Texas State defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 295 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Eric Olsen (Receiving)	44 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~61 yds · 0.6 TD (Texas State defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 295 raw yds/gm allowed here)
AJ Newberry (Receiving)	34 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~48 yds · 0.1 TD (Texas State defense: SP+ #109 nat'l, 295 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Braden Atkinson	2956	25	2	8
Maalik Murphy	81	1	0	2
Brady Jones	5	0	0	2
AJ Newberry	4	1	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
AJ Newberry	72	465	3	8
Cornell Hatcher Jr.	51	267	5	8
Tre Garrison	29	103	0	5
Jake Reichle	22	100	3	6
Kourdey Glass	17	80	0	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Jesse Legree	53	1110	14	8
Eric Olsen	37	424	4	8
AJ Newberry	26	299	1	8
D.C. Temple	29	283	2	8
Aeryn Hampton	22	253	1	8