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Boise State @ Colorado State
2026-11-07T23:00:00.000Z
· Canvas Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Boise State
by 16.8
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Colorado State +18.5 (opened +19.5),
O/U 68.5
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
Boise State Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
Boise State offense: 8 games this season ·
Colorado State defense: 8 games this season
Boise State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 67 nationally ·
Colorado State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 67 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Boise State offense | Colorado State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 449 #21 | 511 #138 |
| Rush yards | 223 #11 | 258 #138 |
| Pass yards | 226 #70 | 253 #124 |
| Plays | 72 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 52% #8 | 51% #137 |
| Turnovers | 1 #7 | 2 #14 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 34 (#18 nat'l) | 37 (#131 nat'l) |
Colorado State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Colorado State offense: 8 games this season ·
Boise State defense: 8 games this season
Colorado State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 71 nationally ·
Boise State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 72 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Colorado State offense | Boise State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 436 #31 | 360 #69 |
| Rush yards | 164 #60 | 100 #19 |
| Pass yards | 271 #26 | 261 #128 |
| Plays | 66 | 58 |
| 3rd down % | 46% #27 | 31% #13 |
| Turnovers | 1 #35 | 1 #97 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 29 (#55 nat'l) | 24 (#51 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Boise State | Colorado State |
|---|
| Total yards | 449 | 436 |
| Rush yards | 223 | 164 |
| Pass yards | 226 | 271 |
| Plays | 72 | 66 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Boise State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Colorado State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Colorado State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Colorado State |
|---|
| Maddux Madsen (Passing) |
204 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~314 yds · 3.0 TD
(Colorado State defense: SP+ #131 nat'l, 253 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Dylan Riley (Rushing) |
124 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~191 yds · 1.6 TD
(Colorado State defense: SP+ #131 nat'l, 258 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Sire Gaines (Rushing) |
84 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
5 |
~129 yds · 1.1 TD
(Colorado State defense: SP+ #131 nat'l, 258 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rasean Jones (Receiving) |
74 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~114 yds · 0.7 TD
(Colorado State defense: SP+ #131 nat'l, 253 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Matt Wagner (Receiving) |
39 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~60 yds · 0.8 TD
(Colorado State defense: SP+ #131 nat'l, 253 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Akeem Wright (Receiving) |
39 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~60 yds · 0.4 TD
(Colorado State defense: SP+ #131 nat'l, 253 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Maddux Madsen |
1681 | 15 | 1 |
8 |
| Max Cutforth |
131 | 3 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Dylan Riley |
165 | 1049 | 9 |
8 |
| Sire Gaines |
75 | 418 | 4 |
5 |
| Maddux Madsen |
40 | 142 | 3 |
8 |
| Juelz Goff |
20 | 64 | 0 |
5 |
| Harry Stewart III |
18 | 58 | 0 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Rasean Jones |
37 | 545 | 4 |
7 |
| Matt Wagner |
29 | 328 | 4 |
8 |
| Akeem Wright |
21 | 321 | 2 |
7 |
| Ben Ford |
12 | 137 | 2 |
5 |
| Dylan Riley |
15 | 130 | 1 |
8 |
Colorado State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Boise State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Boise State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Boise State |
|---|
| Hauss Hejny (Passing) |
212 yds/gm · 2.7 TD/gm |
5 |
~204 yds · 2.6 TD
(Boise State defense: SP+ #51 nat'l, 261 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jayden Brown (Rushing) |
62 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
7 |
~60 yds · 0.4 TD
(Boise State defense: SP+ #51 nat'l, 100 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Durell Robinson (Rushing) |
52 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~50 yds · 0.9 TD
(Boise State defense: SP+ #51 nat'l, 100 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Reginald Vick Jr (Receiving) |
72 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
6 |
~69 yds · 0.7 TD
(Boise State defense: SP+ #51 nat'l, 261 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Terrence Smith Jr. (Receiving) |
42 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~41 yds · 0.4 TD
(Boise State defense: SP+ #51 nat'l, 261 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jackson Harper (Receiving) |
42 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~41 yds · 0.3 TD
(Boise State defense: SP+ #51 nat'l, 261 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Hauss Hejny |
1138 | 14 | 2 |
5 |
| Ksaan Farrar |
943 | 5 | 2 |
5 |
| Darius Curry |
70 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Terrence Smith Jr. |
28 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jayden Brown |
52 | 454 | 3 |
7 |
| Durell Robinson |
104 | 449 | 9 |
8 |
| Hauss Hejny |
30 | 208 | 3 |
5 |
| Oliver Lundberg-Coleman |
17 | 57 | 0 |
6 |
| Ksaan Farrar |
14 | 43 | 1 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Reginald Vick Jr |
29 | 425 | 4 |
6 |
| Terrence Smith Jr. |
28 | 374 | 4 |
8 |
| Jackson Harper |
26 | 344 | 2 |
7 |
| Tommy Maher |
19 | 257 | 2 |
6 |
| Cedric Ross |
13 | 221 | 3 |
6 |