Penn State @ Washington
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Husky Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Washington by 2.7 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Washington -2.5, O/U 43.5
Flags
Washington
- side Washington averages 277 pass yds/game (8 games) — Penn State allows 141 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Washington #35 nat'l, Penn State #36 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (Penn State allows 296, Washington allows 342) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: Penn State #27 nat'l defense, Washington #30 nat'l.
Penn State Offense vs. Washington Defense
Penn State offense: 8 games this season · Washington defense: 8 games this season
Penn State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 63 nationally · Washington: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 71 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Penn State offense | Washington defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 393 #63 | 342 #54 |
| Rush yards | 148 #80 | 131 #54 |
| Pass yards | 245 #48 | 211 #71 |
| Plays | 68 | 65 |
| 3rd down % | 36% #98 | 33% #30 |
| Turnovers | 1 #25 | 2 #14 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 29 (#53 nat'l) | 20 (#30 nat'l) |
Washington Offense vs. Penn State Defense
Washington offense: 8 games this season · Penn State defense: 8 games this season
Washington: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 51 nationally · Penn State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 70 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Washington offense | Penn State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 372 #76 | 296 #18 |
| Rush yards | 95 #135 | 155 #88 |
| Pass yards | 277 #21 | 141 #3 |
| Plays | 64 | 58 |
| 3rd down % | 33% #119 | 28% #5 |
| Turnovers | 1 #48 | 2 #23 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 30 (#49 nat'l) | 20 (#27 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Penn State | Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 393 | 372 |
| Rush yards | 148 | 95 |
| Pass yards | 245 | 277 |
| Plays | 68 | 64 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Penn State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Washington
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Washington's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Washington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Becht (Passing) | 240 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~195 yds · 1.1 TD (Washington defense: SP+ #30 nat'l, 211 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Carson Hansen (Rushing) | 44 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~35 yds · 0.6 TD (Washington defense: SP+ #30 nat'l, 131 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cam Wallace (Rushing) | 40 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 5 | ~32 yds · 0.4 TD (Washington defense: SP+ #30 nat'l, 131 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chase Sowell (Receiving) | 91 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 7 | ~74 yds · 0.4 TD (Washington defense: SP+ #30 nat'l, 211 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Koby Howard (Receiving) | 83 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 3 | ~67 yds · 0.4 TD (Washington defense: SP+ #30 nat'l, 211 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Benjamin Brahmer (Receiving) | 34 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~27 yds · 0.2 TD (Washington defense: SP+ #30 nat'l, 211 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocco Becht | 1839 | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| Alex Manske | 102 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Nathan Tiyce | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Connor Barry | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Hansen | 89 | 374 | 5 | 8 |
| Cam Wallace | 44 | 260 | 3 | 5 |
| James Peoples | 57 | 246 | 2 | 7 |
| Quinton Martin Jr. | 31 | 160 | 1 | 5 |
| Rocco Becht | 55 | 78 | 2 | 8 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sowell | 34 | 510 | 3 | 7 |
| Koby Howard | 12 | 344 | 2 | 3 |
| Benjamin Brahmer | 25 | 264 | 3 | 8 |
| Brett Eskildsen | 23 | 244 | 1 | 7 |
| Andrew Rappleyea | 28 | 225 | 3 | 7 |
Washington Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Penn State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Penn State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Penn State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demond Williams Jr. (Passing) | 226 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm | 7 | ~178 yds · 1.1 TD (Penn State defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 141 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Brian Bonner Jr. (Rushing) | 46 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 7 | ~37 yds · 0.1 TD (Penn State defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 155 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Demond Williams Jr. (Rushing) | 30 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~23 yds · 0.2 TD (Penn State defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 155 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chris Lawson (Receiving) | 91 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 8 | ~72 yds · 0.4 TD (Penn State defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 141 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Dezmen Roebuck (Receiving) | 67 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~53 yds · 0.3 TD (Penn State defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 141 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rashid Williams (Receiving) | 44 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 7 | ~34 yds · 0.3 TD (Penn State defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 141 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demond Williams Jr. | 1495 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| Elijah Brown | 714 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Dezmen Roebuck | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Bonner Jr. | 68 | 309 | 1 | 7 |
| Demond Williams Jr. | 68 | 211 | 2 | 7 |
| Trevion Cooley | 38 | 170 | 1 | 7 |
| Jayden Limar | 14 | 58 | 1 | 2 |
| Quaid Carr | 5 | 28 | 0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Lawson | 44 | 638 | 3 | 8 |
| Dezmen Roebuck | 53 | 509 | 3 | 8 |
| Rashid Williams | 21 | 294 | 3 | 7 |
| Baron Naone | 19 | 269 | 2 | 7 |
| Decker DeGraaf | 15 | 156 | 2 | 8 |