Oregon @ Ohio State

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Ohio Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Ohio State by 14.1 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Ohio State -9.5 (opened -6.0), O/U 47.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 4.6 pts more toward Ohio State than the market line does.

Flags

Oregon

🟢 side Oregon averages 285 pass yds/game (8 games) — Ohio State allows 178 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Oregon #12 nat'l, Ohio State #1 nat'l.
🟡 side Oregon averages 138 rush yds/game (8 games) — Ohio State allows 96 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Oregon #12 nat'l, Ohio State #1 nat'l.

Ohio State

🟢 side Ohio State averages 315 pass yds/game (8 games) — Oregon allows 208 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Ohio State #1 nat'l, Oregon #12 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (Oregon allows 342, Ohio State allows 274) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: Oregon #11 nat'l defense, Ohio State #1 nat'l.

Oregon Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

Oregon offense: 8 games this season · Ohio State defense: 8 games this season

Oregon: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 38 nationally · Ohio State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 58 nationally

Stat (per game)	Oregon offense	Ohio State defense allowed
Total yards	424 #41	274 #11
Rush yards	138 #95	96 #14
Pass yards	285 #14	178 #20
Plays	69	61
3rd down %	36% #99	39% #74
Turnovers	2 #114	1 #45
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	33 (#28 nat'l)	11 (#1 nat'l)

Ohio State Offense vs. Oregon Defense

Ohio State offense: 8 games this season · Oregon defense: 8 games this season

Ohio State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 58 nationally · Oregon: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 25 nationally

Stat (per game)	Ohio State offense	Oregon defense allowed
Total yards	475 #11	342 #52
Rush yards	160 #65	134 #57
Pass yards	315 #9	208 #60
Plays	70	66
3rd down %	44% #34	31% #20
Turnovers	1 #48	2 #31
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	39 (#4 nat'l)	16 (#11 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Oregon	Ohio State
Total yards	424	475
Rush yards	138	160
Pass yards	285	315
Plays	69	70
Turnovers	2	1

Oregon Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Ohio State

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Ohio State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Ohio State
Dylan Raiola (Passing)	210 yds/gm · 1.8 TD/gm	6	~126 yds · 1.1 TD (Ohio State defense: SP+ #1 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jordon Davison (Rushing)	60 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm	8	~36 yds · 0.6 TD (Ohio State defense: SP+ #1 nat'l, 96 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dierre Hill Jr. (Rushing)	57 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~34 yds · 0.2 TD (Ohio State defense: SP+ #1 nat'l, 96 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dakorien Moore (Receiving)	79 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~47 yds · 0.5 TD (Ohio State defense: SP+ #1 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Evan Stewart (Receiving)	81 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	6	~48 yds · 0.5 TD (Ohio State defense: SP+ #1 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jamari Johnson (Receiving)	62 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	6	~37 yds · 0.4 TD (Ohio State defense: SP+ #1 nat'l, 178 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Dylan Raiola	1097	9	2	6
Dante Moore	926	9	0	4
Brock Thomas	228	1	1	3
Akili Smith Jr.	31	0	0	1
Evan Stewart	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Jordon Davison	91	439	7	8
Dierre Hill Jr.	83	399	3	8
Brandon Smith	32	193	2	4
Da'Jaun Riggs	16	73	0	3
Tradarian Ball	7	47	1	1

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Dakorien Moore	41	545	6	8
Evan Stewart	31	423	4	6
Jamari Johnson	26	328	3	6
Dierre Hill Jr.	20	209	0	7
Jeremiah McClellan	7	170	1	2

Ohio State Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Oregon

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Oregon's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Oregon
Julian Sayin (Passing)	318 yds/gm · 2.8 TD/gm	7	~214 yds · 1.9 TD (Oregon defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Bo Jackson (Rushing)	86 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~58 yds · 0.2 TD (Oregon defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 134 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ja'Kobi Jackson (Rushing)	57 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm	6	~38 yds · 0.7 TD (Oregon defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 134 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jeremiah Smith (Receiving)	151 yds/gm · 1.8 TD/gm	8	~102 yds · 1.2 TD (Oregon defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Devin Mccuin (Receiving)	43 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	7	~29 yds · 0.2 TD (Oregon defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Chris Henry Jr. (Receiving)	42 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	6	~28 yds · 0.1 TD (Oregon defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 208 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Julian Sayin	2007	19	4	7
Luke Fahey	463	3	2	4
Tavien St. Clair	52	1	1	2

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Bo Jackson	128	637	4	8
Ja'Kobi Jackson	59	354	6	6
Isaiah West	41	190	1	7
Legend Bey	17	62	0	6
Luke Fahey	10	13	0	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Jeremiah Smith	62	1067	13	8
Devin Mccuin	20	285	2	7
Chris Henry Jr.	8	252	2	6
Nate Roberts	11	178	2	7
Brandon Inniss	11	153	1	5