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Iowa @ Northwestern
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Ryan Field
Power rating (SP+) implies Northwestern
by 3.8
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Northwestern -1.5 (opened -2.5),
O/U 42.5
Flags
Northwestern
- 🟢 side Northwestern averages 201 rush yds/game (8 games) — Iowa allows 79 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Northwestern #20 nat'l, Iowa #23 nat'l.
- 🟡 side Northwestern is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.2/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense
Iowa offense: 8 games this season ·
Northwestern defense: 8 games this season
Iowa: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 38 nationally ·
Northwestern: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 67 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Iowa offense | Northwestern defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 384 #70 | 374 #84 |
| Rush yards | 174 #48 | 147 #75 |
| Pass yards | 209 #91 | 227 #94 |
| Plays | 63 | 68 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #80 | 38% #70 |
| Turnovers | 1 #35 | 2 #23 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 27 (#62 nat'l) | 19 (#26 nat'l) |
Northwestern Offense vs. Iowa Defense
Northwestern offense: 8 games this season ·
Iowa defense: 8 games this season
Northwestern: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 62 nationally ·
Iowa: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 79 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Northwestern offense | Iowa defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 438 #28 | 276 #12 |
| Rush yards | 201 #24 | 79 #4 |
| Pass yards | 237 #58 | 196 #42 |
| Plays | 65 | 62 |
| 3rd down % | 46% #25 | 31% #14 |
| Turnovers | 0 #2 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 33 (#31 nat'l) | 15 (#10 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Iowa | Northwestern |
|---|
| Total yards | 384 | 438 |
| Rush yards | 174 | 201 |
| Pass yards | 209 | 237 |
| Plays | 63 | 65 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
Iowa Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Northwestern
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Northwestern's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Northwestern |
|---|
| Hank Brown (Passing) |
217 yds/gm · 1.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~170 yds · 1.1 TD
(Northwestern defense: SP+ #26 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kamari Moulton (Rushing) |
96 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
6 |
~75 yds · 0.5 TD
(Northwestern defense: SP+ #26 nat'l, 147 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Xavier Williams (Rushing) |
44 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
7 |
~35 yds · 0.3 TD
(Northwestern defense: SP+ #26 nat'l, 147 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tony Diaz (Receiving) |
69 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~54 yds · 0.2 TD
(Northwestern defense: SP+ #26 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Reece Vander Zee (Receiving) |
60 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~47 yds · 0.6 TD
(Northwestern defense: SP+ #26 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| DJ Vonnahme (Receiving) |
58 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
7 |
~45 yds · 0.4 TD
(Northwestern defense: SP+ #26 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Hank Brown |
1190 | 8 | 3 |
7 |
| Jeremy Hecklinski |
472 | 4 | 2 |
5 |
| Jimmy Sullivan |
13 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kamari Moulton |
86 | 541 | 4 |
6 |
| Xavier Williams |
45 | 265 | 3 |
7 |
| Braeden Jackson |
23 | 178 | 2 |
6 |
| Nathan Mcneil |
21 | 128 | 2 |
3 |
| L.J. Phillips Jr. |
34 | 115 | 0 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Tony Diaz |
33 | 461 | 2 |
8 |
| Reece Vander Zee |
25 | 367 | 4 |
8 |
| DJ Vonnahme |
29 | 304 | 3 |
7 |
| Addison Ostrenga |
10 | 90 | 1 |
5 |
| Braeden Jackson |
7 | 82 | 1 |
6 |
Northwestern Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Iowa
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Iowa's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Iowa |
|---|
| Aidan Chiles (Passing) |
255 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~170 yds · 1.0 TD
(Iowa defense: SP+ #10 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Caleb Komolafe (Rushing) |
79 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~52 yds · 0.4 TD
(Iowa defense: SP+ #10 nat'l, 79 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Joseph Himon II (Rushing) |
51 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~34 yds · 0.3 TD
(Iowa defense: SP+ #10 nat'l, 79 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Griffin Wilde (Receiving) |
96 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~64 yds · 0.5 TD
(Iowa defense: SP+ #10 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Drew Wagner (Receiving) |
33 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~22 yds · 0.1 TD
(Iowa defense: SP+ #10 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Luke Dehnicke (Receiving) |
90 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
4 |
~60 yds · 0.0 TD
(Iowa defense: SP+ #10 nat'l, 196 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Aidan Chiles |
1898 | 13 | 1 |
8 |
| Alex Honig |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Nicco Marchiol |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Caleb Komolafe |
104 | 618 | 5 |
8 |
| Joseph Himon II |
43 | 384 | 3 |
8 |
| Aidan Chiles |
86 | 274 | 10 |
8 |
| Gavin Sawchuk |
47 | 225 | 0 |
8 |
| Drew Wagner |
5 | 43 | 0 |
3 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Griffin Wilde |
44 | 761 | 5 |
8 |
| Drew Wagner |
30 | 261 | 2 |
8 |
| Luke Dehnicke |
14 | 251 | 0 |
4 |
| Alex Honig |
15 | 229 | 3 |
7 |
| Caleb Komolafe |
15 | 162 | 0 |
6 |