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UCLA @ Minnesota
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Huntington Bank Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies UCLA
by 8.0
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Minnesota +6.5,
O/U 38.5
Flags
UCLA
- 🟢 side UCLA averages 220 rush yds/game (8 games) — Minnesota allows 126 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: UCLA #17 nat'l, Minnesota #57 nat'l.
- 🟢 side UCLA is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.9/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Head-to-head
- 🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (UCLA allows 261, Minnesota allows 305) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: UCLA #19 nat'l defense, Minnesota #27 nat'l.
UCLA Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
UCLA offense: 8 games this season ·
Minnesota defense: 8 games this season
UCLA: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 68 nationally ·
Minnesota: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 61 nationally
| Stat (per game) | UCLA offense | Minnesota defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 428 #33 | 305 #22 |
| Rush yards | 220 #12 | 126 #44 |
| Pass yards | 208 #93 | 179 #23 |
| Plays | 68 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 46% #28 | 28% #6 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 2 #14 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 32 (#38 nat'l) | 20 (#27 nat'l) |
Minnesota Offense vs. UCLA Defense
Minnesota offense: 8 games this season ·
UCLA defense: 8 games this season
Minnesota: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 50 nationally ·
UCLA: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 81 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Minnesota offense | UCLA defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 309 #130 | 261 #7 |
| Rush yards | 100 #132 | 87 #10 |
| Pass yards | 210 #89 | 174 #14 |
| Plays | 62 | 62 |
| 3rd down % | 32% #126 | 26% #2 |
| Turnovers | 1 #48 | 3 #1 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 24 (#93 nat'l) | 17 (#19 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | UCLA | Minnesota |
|---|
| Total yards | 428 | 309 |
| Rush yards | 220 | 100 |
| Pass yards | 208 | 210 |
| Plays | 68 | 62 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
UCLA Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Minnesota
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Minnesota's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Minnesota |
|---|
| Nico Iamaleava (Passing) |
173 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
5 |
~136 yds · 0.5 TD
(Minnesota defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 179 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Wayne Knight (Rushing) |
79 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~62 yds · 1.1 TD
(Minnesota defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Anthony Woods (Rushing) |
58 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~45 yds · 0.5 TD
(Minnesota defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Semaj Morgan (Receiving) |
55 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~43 yds · 0.1 TD
(Minnesota defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 179 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Brian Rowe Jr. (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~30 yds · 0.1 TD
(Minnesota defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 179 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Aidan Mizell (Receiving) |
49 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
4 |
~38 yds · 0.2 TD
(Minnesota defense: SP+ #27 nat'l, 179 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Nico Iamaleava |
982 | 4 | 4 |
5 |
| Ty Dieffenbach |
683 | 3 | 1 |
4 |
| Semaj Morgan |
0 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
| Madden Iamaleava |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Wayne Knight |
110 | 680 | 12 |
8 |
| Anthony Woods |
75 | 495 | 6 |
8 |
| Jaivian Thomas |
56 | 270 | 4 |
8 |
| Nico Iamaleava |
42 | 144 | 1 |
5 |
| Troy Leigber |
7 | 104 | 1 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Semaj Morgan |
36 | 415 | 2 |
8 |
| Brian Rowe Jr. |
19 | 326 | 1 |
8 |
| Aidan Mizell |
7 | 175 | 1 |
4 |
| Landon Ellis |
9 | 136 | 1 |
6 |
| Wayne Knight |
16 | 127 | 2 |
6 |
Minnesota Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UCLA
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UCLA's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. UCLA |
|---|
| Drake Lindsey (Passing) |
214 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~157 yds · 1.0 TD
(UCLA defense: SP+ #19 nat'l, 174 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| TJ Thomas Jr. (Rushing) |
53 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~39 yds · 0.1 TD
(UCLA defense: SP+ #19 nat'l, 87 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Darius Taylor (Rushing) |
40 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
7 |
~29 yds · 0.6 TD
(UCLA defense: SP+ #19 nat'l, 87 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Javon Tracy (Receiving) |
59 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~43 yds · 0.1 TD
(UCLA defense: SP+ #19 nat'l, 174 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Noah Jennings (Receiving) |
55 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~40 yds · 0.1 TD
(UCLA defense: SP+ #19 nat'l, 174 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jalen Smith (Receiving) |
37 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
7 |
~27 yds · 0.3 TD
(UCLA defense: SP+ #19 nat'l, 174 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Drake Lindsey |
1592 | 10 | 6 |
8 |
| Max Shikenjanski |
50 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Brady Palmer |
34 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Javon Tracy |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| TJ Thomas Jr. |
64 | 381 | 1 |
8 |
| Darius Taylor |
83 | 217 | 5 |
7 |
| Xavier Ford |
29 | 128 | 1 |
7 |
| A.J. Turner |
10 | 44 | 1 |
2 |
| Noah Jennings |
2 | 32 | 0 |
1 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Javon Tracy |
46 | 460 | 1 |
8 |
| Noah Jennings |
33 | 395 | 1 |
8 |
| Jalen Smith |
18 | 263 | 3 |
7 |
| Darius Taylor |
22 | 167 | 1 |
7 |
| Roman Voss |
7 | 117 | 2 |
4 |