Michigan State @ Michigan
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Michigan Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Michigan by 17.0 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Michigan -12.5 (opened -16.5), O/U 39.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 4.5 pts more toward Michigan than the market line does.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
Michigan State Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Michigan State offense: 8 games this season · Michigan defense: 8 games this season
Michigan State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 40 nationally · Michigan: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 75 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Michigan State offense | Michigan defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 291 #134 | 250 #3 |
| Rush yards | 110 #123 | 99 #17 |
| Pass yards | 181 #117 | 151 #5 |
| Plays | 63 | 58 |
| 3rd down % | 38% #90 | 32% #25 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 23 (#98 nat'l) | 13 (#3 nat'l) |
Michigan Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Michigan offense: 8 games this season · Michigan State defense: 8 games this season
Michigan: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 49 nationally · Michigan State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 52 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Michigan offense | Michigan State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 316 #128 | 355 #64 |
| Rush yards | 138 #98 | 154 #86 |
| Pass yards | 178 #119 | 201 #50 |
| Plays | 62 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #39 | 41% #103 |
| Turnovers | 2 #114 | 1 #133 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 24 (#86 nat'l) | 26 (#68 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Michigan State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 291 | 316 |
| Rush yards | 110 | 138 |
| Pass yards | 181 | 178 |
| Plays | 63 | 62 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
Michigan State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Michigan
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Michigan's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Michigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Milivojevic (Passing) | 208 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm | 7 | ~128 yds · 0.6 TD (Michigan defense: SP+ #3 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaziun Patterson (Rushing) | 65 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 6 | ~40 yds · 0.5 TD (Michigan defense: SP+ #3 nat'l, 99 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Camryn Edwards (Rushing) | 70 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 4 | ~43 yds · 0.4 TD (Michigan defense: SP+ #3 nat'l, 99 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Chrishon Mccray (Receiving) | 43 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 8 | ~27 yds · 0.1 TD (Michigan defense: SP+ #3 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jayden Savoury (Receiving) | 38 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~23 yds · 0.0 TD (Michigan defense: SP+ #3 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rodney Bullard Jr. (Receiving) | 41 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 7 | ~25 yds · 0.1 TD (Michigan defense: SP+ #3 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Milivojevic | 1263 | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Leo Hannan | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cam Fancher | 59 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Kayd Coffman | 42 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Carson Gulker | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaziun Patterson | 76 | 327 | 5 | 6 |
| Camryn Edwards | 64 | 304 | 3 | 4 |
| Marvis Parrish | 35 | 105 | 0 | 8 |
| Kenneth Williams | 19 | 64 | 0 | 3 |
| Brandon Tullis | 11 | 53 | 0 | 4 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrishon Mccray | 29 | 289 | 1 | 8 |
| Jayden Savoury | 29 | 271 | 0 | 8 |
| Rodney Bullard Jr. | 21 | 253 | 1 | 7 |
| Fredrick Moore | 20 | 216 | 2 | 8 |
| Bryson Williams | 3 | 70 | 1 | 3 |
Michigan Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Michigan State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Michigan State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Michigan State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Underwood (Passing) | 180 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm | 6 | ~195 yds · 0.9 TD (Michigan State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 201 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jordan Marshall (Rushing) | 48 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~53 yds · 0.7 TD (Michigan State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 154 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Savion Hiter (Rushing) | 41 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 8 | ~45 yds · 0.2 TD (Michigan State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 154 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| JJ Buchanan (Receiving) | 87 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~94 yds · 0.7 TD (Michigan State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 201 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Andrew Marsh (Receiving) | 49 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~53 yds · 0.1 TD (Michigan State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 201 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Hogan Hansen (Receiving) | 34 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 5 | ~37 yds · 0.0 TD (Michigan State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 201 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Underwood | 924 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Tommy Carr | 503 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Marshall | 86 | 319 | 5 | 8 |
| Savion Hiter | 87 | 314 | 2 | 8 |
| Bryce Underwood | 61 | 222 | 2 | 7 |
| Bryson Kuzdzal | 21 | 117 | 1 | 6 |
| Tommy Carr | 33 | 114 | 3 | 4 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Buchanan | 38 | 602 | 5 | 8 |
| Andrew Marsh | 39 | 360 | 1 | 8 |
| Hogan Hansen | 14 | 142 | 0 | 5 |
| Salesi Moa | 3 | 67 | 1 | 2 |
| Savion Hiter | 8 | 65 | 0 | 5 |