Nebraska @ Illinois

2026-11-07T01:00:00.000Z · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)

Power rating (SP+) implies Nebraska by 6.1 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Illinois +5.5 (opened +6.0), O/U 48.5

Flags

Nebraska

🟡 side Nebraska averages 187 rush yds/game (8 games) — Illinois allows 130 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Nebraska #15 nat'l, Illinois #47 nat'l.

Illinois

🟢 side Illinois averages 164 rush yds/game (8 games) — Nebraska allows 91 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Illinois #47 nat'l, Nebraska #15 nat'l.
🟡 side Illinois averages 230 pass yds/game (8 games) — Nebraska allows 180 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Illinois #47 nat'l, Nebraska #15 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Nebraska averages 72 plays/game (8 games) vs. Illinois's 62 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.

Nebraska Offense vs. Illinois Defense

Nebraska offense: 8 games this season · Illinois defense: 8 games this season

Nebraska: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 54 nationally · Illinois: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 58 nationally

Stat (per game)	Nebraska offense	Illinois defense allowed
Total yards	425 #38	371 #80
Rush yards	187 #36	130 #52
Pass yards	238 #56	241 #109
Plays	72	65
3rd down %	50% #16	42% #108
Turnovers	1 #25	1 #121
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	32 (#34 nat'l)	26 (#63 nat'l)

Illinois Offense vs. Nebraska Defense

Illinois offense: 8 games this season · Nebraska defense: 8 games this season

Illinois: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 60 nationally · Nebraska: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 68 nationally

Stat (per game)	Illinois offense	Nebraska defense allowed
Total yards	394 #62	271 #8
Rush yards	164 #61	91 #11
Pass yards	230 #67	180 #24
Plays	62	60
3rd down %	45% #31	21% #1
Turnovers	1 #15	1 #60
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	32 (#36 nat'l)	17 (#16 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Nebraska	Illinois
Total yards	425	394
Rush yards	187	164
Pass yards	238	230
Plays	72	62
Turnovers	1	1

Nebraska Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Illinois

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Illinois's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Illinois
Anthony Colandrea (Passing)	249 yds/gm · 1.7 TD/gm	8	~261 yds · 1.8 TD (Illinois defense: SP+ #63 nat'l, 241 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jamal Rule (Rushing)	69 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	7	~72 yds · 0.7 TD (Illinois defense: SP+ #63 nat'l, 130 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Anthony Colandrea (Rushing)	46 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~49 yds · 0.7 TD (Illinois defense: SP+ #63 nat'l, 130 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kwazi Gilmer (Receiving)	70 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~74 yds · 0.8 TD (Illinois defense: SP+ #63 nat'l, 241 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jacory Barney Jr. (Receiving)	63 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~66 yds · 0.2 TD (Illinois defense: SP+ #63 nat'l, 241 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Luke Lindenmeyer (Receiving)	36 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~38 yds · 0.1 TD (Illinois defense: SP+ #63 nat'l, 241 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Anthony Colandrea	1824	15	7	8
TJ Lateef	82	1	0	2
Daniel Kaelin	-1	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Jamal Rule	73	463	5	7
Anthony Colandrea	75	354	4	8
Mekhi Nelson	77	333	4	8
Isaiah Mozee	46	229	1	8
Kwinten Ives	4	34	0	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Kwazi Gilmer	42	545	7	8
Jacory Barney Jr.	35	443	2	8
Luke Lindenmeyer	27	247	1	8
Nyziah Hunter	22	173	0	8
Mekhi Nelson	11	161	1	6

Illinois Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Nebraska

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Nebraska's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Nebraska
Katin Houser (Passing)	244 yds/gm · 1.8 TD/gm	7	~173 yds · 1.3 TD (Nebraska defense: SP+ #16 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Aidan Laughery (Rushing)	83 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~59 yds · 0.2 TD (Nebraska defense: SP+ #16 nat'l, 91 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ca'Lil Valentine (Rushing)	48 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	5	~34 yds · 0.1 TD (Nebraska defense: SP+ #16 nat'l, 91 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Collin Dixon (Receiving)	99 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm	8	~70 yds · 0.9 TD (Nebraska defense: SP+ #16 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Hudson Clement (Receiving)	68 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	7	~48 yds · 0.1 TD (Nebraska defense: SP+ #16 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Brayden Trimble (Receiving)	26 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~18 yds · 0.1 TD (Nebraska defense: SP+ #16 nat'l, 180 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Katin Houser	1663	13	5	7
Michael Clayton II	172	4	0	2
Carson Boyd	5	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Aidan Laughery	89	560	2	8
Ca'Lil Valentine	50	225	1	5
Javari Barnett	25	183	2	5
Jordan Anderson	38	175	2	7
Katin Houser	32	138	2	7

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Collin Dixon	59	776	10	8
Hudson Clement	32	453	1	7
Brayden Trimble	22	198	1	8
Ty Robinson	12	164	3	6
Kaden Feagin	8	73	0	4