Toledo @ Michigan State
2026-09-05T00:00:00.000Z · Spartan Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Michigan State by 13.8 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Michigan State -9.5 (opened -10.5), O/U 46.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 4.3 pts more toward Michigan State than the market line does.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
Toledo Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
Toledo offense: 0 games this season · Michigan State defense: 0 games this season
Toledo: no games played yet this season · Michigan State: no games played yet this season
Toledo — who's actually back: Tucker Gleason (Passing, 2515 yds, 21 TD last season) — departed · DeaMonte Trayanum (Rushing, 950 yds, 11 TD last season) — departed · Junior Vandeross (Receiving, 947 yds, 11 TD last season) — departed
| Stat (per game) | Toledo offense | Michigan State defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | — | — |
| Rush yards | — | — |
| Pass yards | — | — |
| Plays | — | — |
| 3rd down % | — | — |
| Turnovers | — | — |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 17.9 (#114 nat'l) | 25.1 (#61 nat'l) |
Michigan State Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Michigan State offense: 0 games this season REBUILD · 21% returning · Toledo defense: 0 games this season
Michigan State: no games played yet this season · Toledo: no games played yet this season
Michigan State — who's actually back: Aidan Chiles (Passing, 1392 yds, 10 TD last season) — departed · Makhi Frazier (Rushing, 520 yds, 2 TD last season) — departed · Nick Marsh (Receiving, 662 yds, 6 TD last season) — departed
| Stat (per game) | Michigan State offense | Toledo defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | — | — |
| Rush yards | — | — |
| Pass yards | — | — |
| Plays | — | — |
| 3rd down % | — | — |
| Turnovers | — | — |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 27.7 (#58 nat'l) | 26.6 (#75 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Toledo | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | — | — |
| Rush yards | — | — |
| Pass yards | — | — |
| Plays | — | — |
| Turnovers | — | — |
Toledo Players
Likely contributors — ranked by 2025 usage among players still on the roster, not an official depth chart (none exists publicly).
QB
| John Alan Richter | 25 att · 153 yds · 3 TD last season |
Other QBs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Jake DeHaan, Khamoni Robinson, Walter Moses
RB
| CJ Miller transfer, Mercer | 168 car · 953 yds · 14 TD last season |
| Connor Walendzak | 32 car · 99 yds · 0 TD last season |
| Dane Nauman | 9 car · 40 yds · 0 TD last season |
| Corey Smith transfer, Penn State | 5 car · 13 yds · 0 TD last season |
Other RBs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Autavius Ison, Kadale Williams, Noah Sanders
WR
| Rico Bond transfer, Lindenwood | 60 rec · 694 yds · 6 TD last season |
| Kalvin Gilbert Jr. transfer, Southeast Missouri State | 46 rec · 653 yds · 7 TD last season |
| Adjatay Dabbs transfer, Mercer | 45 rec · 856 yds · 8 TD last season |
| Terrell Crosby Jr. | 16 rec · 194 yds · 1 TD last season |
Other WRs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Anthony Simpson, Bryson Hammer, Cooper Rusk, Daryl Barnett Jr., Omar Mims Jr., Seth Elchert, Tashi Braceful, Trenton Jones
TE
| Peyton Strickland transfer, New Hampshire | 24 rec · 226 yds · 4 TD last season |
| Ethan Malafa transfer, Butler | 6 rec · 66 yds · 1 TD last season |
| Jacob Newell transfer, Akron | 4 rec · 14 yds · 0 TD last season |
| Sam Lee | 2 rec · 40 yds · 0 TD last season |
Other TEs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Tucker Kelleher
Passing
No passing stats yet.
Rushing
No rushing stats yet.
Receiving
No receiving stats yet.
Michigan State Players
Likely contributors — ranked by 2025 usage among players still on the roster, not an official depth chart (none exists publicly).
QB
| Alessio Milivojevic | 173 att · 1267 yds · 10 TD last season |
| Cam Fancher transfer, UCF | 72 att · 333 yds · 0 TD last season |
Other QBs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Kayd Coffman, Leo Hannan, Peyton Babbitt
RB
| Cam Edwards transfer, UConn | 199 car · 1132 yds · 14 TD last season |
| Marvis Parrish transfer, Western Kentucky | 99 car · 511 yds · 0 TD last season |
| Brandon Tullis | 68 car · 297 yds · 4 TD last season |
| Jaziun Patterson transfer, Iowa | 57 car · 299 yds · 0 TD last season |
Other RBs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Cedric Williams Jr., Darrin Jones Jr., Jace Clarizio, Jaxon McCaig, Kenneth Williams, Zion Gist
WR
| Jameel Gardner Jr. transfer, Jackson State | 32 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD last season |
| Chrishon McCray | 24 rec · 330 yds · 3 TD last season |
| KK Smith transfer, Notre Dame | 8 rec · 123 yds · 2 TD last season |
| Rodney Bullard Jr. | 5 rec · 119 yds · 1 TD last season |
Other WRs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Braylon Collier, Bryson Williams, Charles Taplin, Colin Charles, Fredrick Moore, Jack Yanachik, Nick Hardy, Rai'Shawn Elmore, Samson Gash, Zach Washington
TE
| Kai Rios | 1 rec · 1 yds · 1 TD last season |
| Jayden Savoury | 1 rec · 16 yds · 0 TD last season |
Other TEs on the roster, no 2025 production here to rank by: Brennan Parachek, Carson Gulker, Charlie Baker, Eddie Whiting, Ethan Melville, Joe Caudill
Passing
No passing stats yet.
Rushing
No rushing stats yet.
Receiving
No receiving stats yet.