North Carolina @ UConn
2026-11-07T17:00:00.000Z · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies North Carolina by 0.5 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): UConn +8.5, O/U 51.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 8.0 pts more toward UConn than the market line does.
Flags
No flags cleared the threshold for this matchup — nothing stood out in the stats gathered so far.
North Carolina Offense vs. UConn Defense
North Carolina offense: 8 games this season · UConn defense: 8 games this season
North Carolina: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 32 nationally · UConn: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 89 nationally
| Stat (per game) | North Carolina offense | UConn defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 345 #107 | 388 #100 |
| Rush yards | 108 #126 | 140 #68 |
| Pass yards | 237 #59 | 249 #116 |
| Plays | 60 | 72 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #36 | 40% #85 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 26 (#75 nat'l) | 29 (#88 nat'l) |
UConn Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
UConn offense: 8 games this season · North Carolina defense: 8 games this season
UConn: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 97 nationally · North Carolina: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 51 nationally
| Stat (per game) | UConn offense | North Carolina defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 440 #26 | 378 #93 |
| Rush yards | 193 #28 | 153 #82 |
| Pass yards | 247 #44 | 225 #89 |
| Plays | 64 | 72 |
| 3rd down % | 41% #62 | 44% #123 |
| Turnovers | 1 #25 | 1 #97 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 29 (#51 nat'l) | 22 (#42 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | North Carolina | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 345 | 440 |
| Rush yards | 108 | 193 |
| Pass yards | 237 | 247 |
| Plays | 60 | 64 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
North Carolina Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. UConn
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for UConn's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. UConn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Edwards (Passing) | 287 yds/gm · 2.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~353 yds · 2.9 TD (UConn defense: SP+ #88 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Benjamin Hall (Rushing) | 55 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm | 7 | ~67 yds · 0.0 TD (UConn defense: SP+ #88 nat'l, 140 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Demon June (Rushing) | 43 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~53 yds · 1.4 TD (UConn defense: SP+ #88 nat'l, 140 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jordan Shipp (Receiving) | 90 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~111 yds · 0.5 TD (UConn defense: SP+ #88 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jelani Thurman (Receiving) | 71 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~87 yds · 1.2 TD (UConn defense: SP+ #88 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Trech Kekahuna (Receiving) | 38 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 7 | ~47 yds · 0.3 TD (UConn defense: SP+ #88 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Edwards | 1871 | 15 | 5 | 8 |
| Miles O'Neill | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Hall | 60 | 296 | 0 | 7 |
| Demon June | 72 | 289 | 8 | 8 |
| Jaylen McGill | 47 | 246 | 2 | 8 |
| Jo Jo Troupe | 5 | 20 | 0 | 1 |
| Miles O'Neill | 1 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Shipp | 45 | 587 | 3 | 8 |
| Jelani Thurman | 38 | 461 | 6 | 8 |
| Trech Kekahuna | 17 | 219 | 1 | 7 |
| Shamar Easter | 9 | 156 | 2 | 7 |
| C.J. Sadler | 8 | 113 | 0 | 5 |
UConn Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. North Carolina
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for North Carolina's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. North Carolina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalieb Osborne (Passing) | 189 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~170 yds · 1.3 TD (North Carolina defense: SP+ #42 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cyncir Bowers (Rushing) | 56 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~50 yds · 0.6 TD (North Carolina defense: SP+ #42 nat'l, 153 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kalieb Osborne (Rushing) | 37 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm | 8 | ~33 yds · 0.6 TD (North Carolina defense: SP+ #42 nat'l, 153 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Shamar Porter (Receiving) | 30 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~27 yds · 0.2 TD (North Carolina defense: SP+ #42 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jediyah Willoughby (Receiving) | 27 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 8 | ~24 yds · 0.2 TD (North Carolina defense: SP+ #42 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ryder Treadway (Receiving) | 26 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~23 yds · 0.1 TD (North Carolina defense: SP+ #42 nat'l, 225 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalieb Osborne | 1857 | 14 | 2 | 8 |
| Tucker McDonald | 118 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyncir Bowers | 84 | 571 | 7 | 8 |
| Kalieb Osborne | 89 | 346 | 7 | 8 |
| Kenji Christian | 55 | 306 | 3 | 7 |
| Trey Cornist | 44 | 267 | 4 | 8 |
| Shawn Simeon | 8 | 45 | 0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamar Porter | 16 | 308 | 3 | 8 |
| Jediyah Willoughby | 15 | 271 | 2 | 8 |
| Ryder Treadway | 19 | 255 | 1 | 8 |
| Javon Brown | 14 | 202 | 2 | 4 |
| Kenji Christian | 12 | 134 | 1 | 7 |