Miami @ Notre Dame

2026-11-08T00:30:00.000Z · Notre Dame Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Notre Dame by 3.0 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Notre Dame -4.5 (opened -6.5), O/U 57.5

Flags

Miami

🟢 side Miami averages 202 rush yds/game (8 games) — Notre Dame allows 85 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Miami #5 nat'l, Notre Dame #3 nat'l.
🟢 side Miami averages 332 pass yds/game (8 games) — Notre Dame allows 151 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Miami #5 nat'l, Notre Dame #3 nat'l.

Notre Dame

🟢 side Notre Dame averages 186 rush yds/game (8 games) — Miami allows 61 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Notre Dame #3 nat'l, Miami #5 nat'l.
🟢 side Notre Dame is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.8/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (Miami allows 313, Notre Dame allows 236) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: Miami #14 nat'l defense, Notre Dame #8 nat'l.

Miami Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense

Miami offense: 8 games this season · Notre Dame defense: 8 games this season

Miami: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 63 nationally · Notre Dame: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 75 nationally

Stat (per game)	Miami offense	Notre Dame defense allowed
Total yards	535 #2	236 #1
Rush yards	202 #21	85 #7
Pass yards	332 #4	151 #6
Plays	69	55
3rd down %	55% #2	38% #71
Turnovers	0 #4	2 #5
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	41 (#1 nat'l)	15 (#8 nat'l)

Notre Dame Offense vs. Miami Defense

Notre Dame offense: 8 games this season · Miami defense: 8 games this season

Notre Dame: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 71 nationally · Miami: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 73 nationally

Stat (per game)	Notre Dame offense	Miami defense allowed
Total yards	443 #24	313 #28
Rush yards	186 #38	61 #1
Pass yards	257 #33	252 #122
Plays	67	61
3rd down %	43% #43	38% #66
Turnovers	0 #1	1 #60
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	40 (#3 nat'l)	17 (#14 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Miami	Notre Dame
Total yards	535	443
Rush yards	202	186
Pass yards	332	257
Plays	69	67
Turnovers	0	0

Miami Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Notre Dame

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Notre Dame's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Notre Dame
Darian Mensah (Passing)	296 yds/gm · 3.0 TD/gm	8	~193 yds · 2.0 TD (Notre Dame defense: SP+ #8 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Javian Mallory (Rushing)	63 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~41 yds · 0.5 TD (Notre Dame defense: SP+ #8 nat'l, 85 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Mark Fletcher Jr. (Rushing)	70 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm	7	~45 yds · 0.9 TD (Notre Dame defense: SP+ #8 nat'l, 85 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Malachi Toney (Receiving)	122 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm	8	~79 yds · 1.0 TD (Notre Dame defense: SP+ #8 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Cooper Barkate (Receiving)	48 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~31 yds · 0.3 TD (Notre Dame defense: SP+ #8 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Daylyn Upshaw (Receiving)	32 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~21 yds · 0.1 TD (Notre Dame defense: SP+ #8 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Darian Mensah	2425	25	1	8
Luke Nickel	204	3	1	3
Dereon Coleman	30	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Javian Mallory	71	495	7	8
Mark Fletcher Jr.	94	457	9	7
Chris Wheatley-Humphrey	15	116	1	2
Darian Mensah	24	109	2	8
Jordan Lyle	21	98	0	4

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Malachi Toney	73	1027	13	8
Cooper Barkate	28	372	4	8
Daylyn Upshaw	22	263	2	8
Elija Lofton	20	236	2	8
Vandrevious Jacobs	9	150	1	4

Notre Dame Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Miami

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Miami's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Miami
C.J. Carr (Passing)	229 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm	8	~159 yds · 1.4 TD (Miami defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Nolan James Jr. (Rushing)	61 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~43 yds · 0.6 TD (Miami defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 61 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jonaz Walton (Rushing)	57 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	7	~40 yds · 0.3 TD (Miami defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 61 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jordan Faison (Receiving)	66 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~46 yds · 0.3 TD (Miami defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Micah Gilbert (Receiving)	51 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~35 yds · 0.2 TD (Miami defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jaden Greathouse (Receiving)	43 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	7	~30 yds · 0.2 TD (Miami defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 252 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
C.J. Carr	1849	18	1	8
Noah Grubbs	176	1	0	4
Teddy Jarrard	29	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Nolan James Jr.	90	519	8	8
Jonaz Walton	69	477	4	7
Aneyas Williams	72	331	4	8
C.J. Carr	25	86	3	7
Kedren Young	13	42	0	4

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Jordan Faison	38	497	4	8
Micah Gilbert	24	430	3	8
Jaden Greathouse	22	289	2	7
Jerome Bettis Jr.	10	170	1	4
Aneyas Williams	9	109	1	6