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Florida State @ Boston College
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Power rating (SP+) implies Florida State
by 4.8
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Boston College +6.5,
O/U 51.5
Flags
Florida State
- 🟡 side Florida State averages 249 pass yds/game (8 games) — Boston College allows 188 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Florida State #53 nat'l, Boston College #78 nat'l.
- 🟡 side Florida State is committing more turnovers than it forces by 1.0/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Head-to-head
- 🔴 total Forecast at kickoff: 57°F, wind 7 mph SE, 57% chance of precipitation (Light Rain Likely) — conditions like this tend to suppress passing efficiency and total scoring.
Florida State Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Florida State offense: 8 games this season ·
Boston College defense: 8 games this season
Florida State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 40 nationally ·
Boston College: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 41 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Florida State offense | Boston College defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 414 #45 | 339 #50 |
| Rush yards | 166 #56 | 151 #80 |
| Pass yards | 249 #43 | 188 #35 |
| Plays | 64 | 66 |
| 3rd down % | 39% #83 | 36% #46 |
| Turnovers | 2 #126 | 2 #14 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 33 (#32 nat'l) | 25 (#59 nat'l) |
Boston College Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Boston College offense: 8 games this season ·
Florida State defense: 8 games this season
Boston College: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 64 nationally ·
Florida State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 45 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Boston College offense | Florida State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 355 #97 | 424 #127 |
| Rush yards | 168 #52 | 176 #111 |
| Pass yards | 187 #113 | 248 #114 |
| Plays | 64 | 70 |
| 3rd down % | 35% #111 | 40% #85 |
| Turnovers | 2 #103 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 24 (#90 nat'l) | 27 (#76 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Florida State | Boston College |
|---|
| Total yards | 414 | 355 |
| Rush yards | 166 | 168 |
| Pass yards | 249 | 187 |
| Plays | 64 | 64 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
Florida State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Boston College
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Boston College's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Boston College |
|---|
| Ashton Daniels (Passing) |
297 yds/gm · 2.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~303 yds · 2.2 TD
(Boston College defense: SP+ #59 nat'l, 188 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ousmane Kromah (Rushing) |
96 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
7 |
~98 yds · 0.8 TD
(Boston College defense: SP+ #59 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ashton Daniels (Rushing) |
54 yds/gm · 1.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~55 yds · 1.8 TD
(Boston College defense: SP+ #59 nat'l, 151 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Duce Robinson (Receiving) |
69 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~71 yds · 0.7 TD
(Boston College defense: SP+ #59 nat'l, 188 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jayvan Boggs (Receiving) |
61 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~62 yds · 0.1 TD
(Boston College defense: SP+ #59 nat'l, 188 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Micahi Danzy (Receiving) |
68 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~69 yds · 0.5 TD
(Boston College defense: SP+ #59 nat'l, 188 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Ashton Daniels |
1968 | 14 | 11 |
8 |
| Kevin Sperry |
21 | 0 | 0 |
3 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Ousmane Kromah |
114 | 609 | 5 |
7 |
| Ashton Daniels |
94 | 375 | 12 |
8 |
| Tre Wisner |
51 | 247 | 0 |
7 |
| Samuel Singleton |
20 | 73 | 1 |
3 |
| Micahi Danzy |
3 | 28 | 0 |
3 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Duce Robinson |
24 | 438 | 4 |
8 |
| Jayvan Boggs |
21 | 415 | 1 |
8 |
| Micahi Danzy |
23 | 401 | 3 |
7 |
| Tre Wisner |
17 | 201 | 1 |
6 |
| Samuel Singleton |
8 | 162 | 2 |
3 |
Boston College Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Florida State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Florida State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Florida State |
|---|
| Mason McKenzie (Passing) |
178 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~204 yds · 1.2 TD
(Florida State defense: SP+ #76 nat'l, 248 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Mason McKenzie (Rushing) |
75 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~86 yds · 0.6 TD
(Florida State defense: SP+ #76 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Evan Dickens (Rushing) |
41 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~47 yds · 0.6 TD
(Florida State defense: SP+ #76 nat'l, 176 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Javarius Green (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~43 yds · 0.2 TD
(Florida State defense: SP+ #76 nat'l, 248 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| John Montague (Receiving) |
37 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~42 yds · 0.4 TD
(Florida State defense: SP+ #76 nat'l, 248 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Landon Wright (Receiving) |
42 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
5 |
~47 yds · 0.3 TD
(Florida State defense: SP+ #76 nat'l, 248 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Mason McKenzie |
1450 | 8 | 7 |
8 |
| Femi Babalola |
49 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Landon Wright |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Grayson Wilson |
-1 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Mason McKenzie |
132 | 638 | 5 |
8 |
| Evan Dickens |
66 | 296 | 4 |
7 |
| Bo MacCormack III |
58 | 268 | 4 |
6 |
| Mekhi Dodd |
15 | 82 | 0 |
4 |
| Nolan Ray |
7 | 42 | 0 |
3 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Javarius Green |
28 | 308 | 1 |
8 |
| John Montague |
13 | 219 | 2 |
6 |
| Landon Wright |
8 | 208 | 1 |
5 |
| Dawson Pough |
13 | 204 | 1 |
6 |
| Evan Dickens |
12 | 114 | 1 |
6 |