Virginia Tech @ SMU
2026-11-07T00:00:00.000Z · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies SMU by 6.9 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): SMU -6.5 (opened -7.5), O/U 56.5
Flags
Virginia Tech
- side Virginia Tech averages 284 pass yds/game (8 games) — SMU allows 182 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Virginia Tech #38 nat'l, SMU #21 nat'l.
SMU
- side SMU averages 320 pass yds/game (8 games) — Virginia Tech allows 218 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: SMU #21 nat'l, Virginia Tech #38 nat'l.
- side SMU averages 147 rush yds/game (8 games) — Virginia Tech allows 93 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: SMU #21 nat'l, Virginia Tech #38 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (Virginia Tech allows 311, SMU allows 308) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: Virginia Tech #39 nat'l defense, SMU #31 nat'l.
Virginia Tech Offense vs. SMU Defense
Virginia Tech offense: 8 games this season · SMU defense: 8 games this season
Virginia Tech: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 70 nationally · SMU: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 69 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Virginia Tech offense | SMU defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 424 #39 | 308 #26 |
| Rush yards | 140 #94 | 126 #42 |
| Pass yards | 284 #15 | 182 #28 |
| Plays | 72 | 63 |
| 3rd down % | 40% #69 | 27% #3 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 31 (#40 nat'l) | 20 (#31 nat'l) |
SMU Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
SMU offense: 8 games this season · Virginia Tech defense: 8 games this season
SMU: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 78 nationally · Virginia Tech: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 85 nationally
| Stat (per game) | SMU offense | Virginia Tech defense allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 467 #14 | 311 #27 |
| Rush yards | 147 #83 | 93 #12 |
| Pass yards | 320 #7 | 218 #78 |
| Plays | 69 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 45% #29 | 31% #18 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #121 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 34 (#19 nat'l) | 22 (#39 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Virginia Tech | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 424 | 467 |
| Rush yards | 140 | 147 |
| Pass yards | 284 | 320 |
| Plays | 72 | 69 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Virginia Tech Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. SMU
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for SMU's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. SMU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Grunkemeyer (Passing) | 251 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~206 yds · 1.7 TD (SMU defense: SP+ #31 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jeffrey Overton Jr. (Rushing) | 75 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm | 8 | ~61 yds · 0.4 TD (SMU defense: SP+ #31 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Marcellous Hawkins (Rushing) | 38 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm | 8 | ~31 yds · 0.5 TD (SMU defense: SP+ #31 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Que'Sean Brown (Receiving) | 82 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm | 8 | ~67 yds · 0.3 TD (SMU defense: SP+ #31 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Luke Reynolds (Receiving) | 58 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm | 8 | ~47 yds · 0.6 TD (SMU defense: SP+ #31 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ayden Greene (Receiving) | 40 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~32 yds · 0.2 TD (SMU defense: SP+ #31 nat'l, 182 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Grunkemeyer | 2140 | 17 | 2 | 8 |
| Bryce Baker | 127 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Reynolds | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Overton Jr. | 113 | 639 | 4 | 8 |
| Marcellous Hawkins | 84 | 337 | 5 | 8 |
| Messiah Mickens | 8 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
| Que'Sean Brown | 3 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
| Darius Taylor | 5 | 22 | 0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Que'Sean Brown | 51 | 685 | 3 | 8 |
| Luke Reynolds | 50 | 493 | 6 | 8 |
| Ayden Greene | 17 | 294 | 2 | 7 |
| Jeffrey Overton Jr. | 23 | 214 | 2 | 7 |
| Davion Brown | 13 | 184 | 1 | 8 |
SMU Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Virginia Tech
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Virginia Tech's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jennings (Passing) | 267 yds/gm · 2.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~234 yds · 2.1 TD (Virginia Tech defense: SP+ #39 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kendrick Raphael (Rushing) | 79 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm | 8 | ~69 yds · 0.9 TD (Virginia Tech defense: SP+ #39 nat'l, 93 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kevin Jennings (Rushing) | 14 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm | 8 | ~12 yds · 0.2 TD (Virginia Tech defense: SP+ #39 nat'l, 93 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Yamir Knight (Receiving) | 56 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 8 | ~49 yds · 0.3 TD (Virginia Tech defense: SP+ #39 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Yannick Smith (Receiving) | 59 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm | 7 | ~52 yds · 0.2 TD (Virginia Tech defense: SP+ #39 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jalen Cooper (Receiving) | 40 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm | 8 | ~35 yds · 0.1 TD (Virginia Tech defense: SP+ #39 nat'l, 218 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player | YDS | TD | INT | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Jennings | 2433 | 21 | 5 | 8 |
| Ty Hawkins | 117 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Charlie Fiser | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cole Leinart | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendrick Raphael | 135 | 697 | 9 | 8 |
| Kevin Jennings | 56 | 116 | 2 | 8 |
| Dramekco Green | 36 | 111 | 0 | 4 |
| Derrick McFall | 15 | 87 | 0 | 5 |
| Ty Hawkins | 6 | 75 | 0 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | REC | YDS | TD | GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yamir Knight | 44 | 523 | 3 | 8 |
| Yannick Smith | 27 | 437 | 2 | 7 |
| Jalen Cooper | 27 | 389 | 1 | 8 |
| Jalen Hale | 16 | 258 | 3 | 8 |
| Randy Pittman | 23 | 213 | 4 | 8 |