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Duke @ NC State
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Carter-Finley Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Duke
by 5.2
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): NC State +6.0 (opened +5.5),
O/U 50.5
Flags
Duke
- 🟡 side Duke averages 185 rush yds/game (8 games) — NC State allows 131 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Duke #47 nat'l, NC State #74 nat'l.
NC State
- 🟡 side NC State averages 159 rush yds/game (8 games) — Duke allows 104 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: NC State #74 nat'l, Duke #47 nat'l.
- 🟡 side NC State averages 249 pass yds/game (8 games) — Duke allows 187 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: NC State #74 nat'l, Duke #47 nat'l.
Duke Offense vs. NC State Defense
Duke offense: 8 games this season ·
NC State defense: 8 games this season
Duke: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 70 nationally ·
NC State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 66 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Duke offense | NC State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 421 #42 | 366 #74 |
| Rush yards | 185 #40 | 131 #53 |
| Pass yards | 236 #61 | 235 #102 |
| Plays | 68 | 63 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #42 | 34% #37 |
| Turnovers | 1 #7 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 30 (#49 nat'l) | 31 (#107 nat'l) |
NC State Offense vs. Duke Defense
NC State offense: 8 games this season ·
Duke defense: 8 games this season
NC State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 76 nationally ·
Duke: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 77 nationally
| Stat (per game) | NC State offense | Duke defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 408 #50 | 290 #16 |
| Rush yards | 159 #66 | 104 #25 |
| Pass yards | 249 #40 | 187 #33 |
| Plays | 69 | 61 |
| 3rd down % | 52% #9 | 27% #4 |
| Turnovers | 1 #63 | 1 #78 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 30 (#46 nat'l) | 23 (#44 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Duke | NC State |
|---|
| Total yards | 421 | 408 |
| Rush yards | 185 | 159 |
| Pass yards | 236 | 249 |
| Plays | 68 | 69 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Duke Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. NC State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for NC State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. NC State |
|---|
| Walker Eget (Passing) |
194 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~266 yds · 1.4 TD
(NC State defense: SP+ #107 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Nate Sheppard (Rushing) |
110 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~150 yds · 2.2 TD
(NC State defense: SP+ #107 nat'l, 131 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| CJ Campbell (Rushing) |
33 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~45 yds · 0.0 TD
(NC State defense: SP+ #107 nat'l, 131 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jeremiah Hasley (Receiving) |
38 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
7 |
~51 yds · 0.2 TD
(NC State defense: SP+ #107 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Nate Sheppard (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~49 yds · 0.6 TD
(NC State defense: SP+ #107 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jonah Burton (Receiving) |
37 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~51 yds · 0.2 TD
(NC State defense: SP+ #107 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Walker Eget |
1641 | 9 | 3 |
8 |
| Dan Mahan |
175 | 3 | 1 |
6 |
| Terry Walker III |
44 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Nate Sheppard |
28 | 1 | 0 |
1 |
| Kade Reynoldson |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Nate Sheppard |
173 | 972 | 14 |
8 |
| CJ Campbell |
60 | 284 | 0 |
8 |
| Jayvian Tanelus |
21 | 136 | 2 |
3 |
| Dan Mahan |
13 | 51 | 0 |
6 |
| CJ Givers |
3 | 36 | 1 |
1 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jeremiah Hasley |
24 | 305 | 1 |
7 |
| Nate Sheppard |
31 | 302 | 4 |
8 |
| Jonah Burton |
21 | 299 | 1 |
8 |
| Jared Richardson |
18 | 226 | 2 |
6 |
| Jaivon Solomon |
11 | 207 | 1 |
5 |
NC State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Duke
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Duke's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Duke |
|---|
| CJ Bailey (Passing) |
221 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~201 yds · 1.3 TD
(Duke defense: SP+ #44 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jayden Scott (Rushing) |
64 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
5 |
~58 yds · 0.6 TD
(Duke defense: SP+ #44 nat'l, 104 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Davion Gause (Rushing) |
42 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~38 yds · 0.2 TD
(Duke defense: SP+ #44 nat'l, 104 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Keenan Jackson (Receiving) |
59 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
7 |
~54 yds · 0.6 TD
(Duke defense: SP+ #44 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Preston Douglas (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~33 yds · 0.1 TD
(Duke defense: SP+ #44 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Joshisa Trader (Receiving) |
42 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
5 |
~38 yds · 0.0 TD
(Duke defense: SP+ #44 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| CJ Bailey |
1955 | 13 | 4 |
8 |
| Will Wilson |
35 | 2 | 0 |
3 |
| Joshisa Trader |
5 | 0 | 0 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jayden Scott |
62 | 358 | 4 |
5 |
| Davion Gause |
87 | 352 | 2 |
7 |
| Will Wilson |
46 | 179 | 8 |
8 |
| CJ Bailey |
63 | 178 | 2 |
8 |
| Dylan McCoy |
10 | 88 | 1 |
3 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Keenan Jackson |
30 | 456 | 6 |
7 |
| Preston Douglas |
26 | 304 | 1 |
8 |
| Joshisa Trader |
16 | 221 | 0 |
5 |
| Davion Gause |
21 | 202 | 0 |
7 |
| Victor Snow |
19 | 175 | 0 |
8 |