Clemson @ Syracuse

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · JMA Wireless Dome

Power rating (SP+) implies Clemson by 5.0 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Syracuse +1.5, O/U 49.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 3.5 pts more toward Clemson than the market line does.

Flags

Syracuse

🟡 side Syracuse averages 274 pass yds/game (8 games) — Clemson allows 206 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Syracuse #87 nat'l, Clemson #55 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟡 total Syracuse averages 80 plays/game (8 games) vs. Clemson's 70 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.

Clemson Offense vs. Syracuse Defense

Clemson offense: 8 games this season · Syracuse defense: 8 games this season

Clemson: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 53 nationally · Syracuse: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 52 nationally

Stat (per game)	Clemson offense	Syracuse defense allowed
Total yards	335 #113	348 #59
Rush yards	152 #76	126 #43
Pass yards	184 #115	222 #85
Plays	70	63
3rd down %	31% #136	40% #85
Turnovers	1 #76	1 #60
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	23 (#96 nat'l)	28 (#85 nat'l)

Syracuse Offense vs. Clemson Defense

Syracuse offense: 8 games this season · Clemson defense: 8 games this season

Syracuse: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 57 nationally · Clemson: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 49 nationally

Stat (per game)	Syracuse offense	Clemson defense allowed
Total yards	436 #30	329 #39
Rush yards	162 #62	123 #37
Pass yards	274 #25	206 #57
Plays	80	66
3rd down %	40% #65	31% #16
Turnovers	1 #63	1 #45
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	26 (#77 nat'l)	19 (#24 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Clemson	Syracuse
Total yards	335	436
Rush yards	152	162
Pass yards	184	274
Plays	70	80
Turnovers	1	1

Clemson Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Syracuse

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Syracuse's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Syracuse
Tait Reynolds (Passing)	174 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~210 yds · 0.4 TD (Syracuse defense: SP+ #85 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Gideon Davidson (Rushing)	64 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~78 yds · 0.8 TD (Syracuse defense: SP+ #85 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Tait Reynolds (Rushing)	28 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~33 yds · 0.3 TD (Syracuse defense: SP+ #85 nat'l, 126 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Bryant Wesco Jr. (Receiving)	62 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	8	~74 yds · 0.0 TD (Syracuse defense: SP+ #85 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Tyler Brown (Receiving)	45 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	8	~54 yds · 0.0 TD (Syracuse defense: SP+ #85 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)
T.J. Moore (Receiving)	40 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~48 yds · 0.1 TD (Syracuse defense: SP+ #85 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Tait Reynolds	1287	3	3	8
Christopher Vizzina	102	1	2	2
Trent Pearman	80	0	2	1
Brock Bradley	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Gideon Davidson	105	528	5	8
Tait Reynolds	94	249	2	8
Chris Johnson Jr.	35	136	2	8
Jarvis Green	32	125	0	7
Tyler Brown	5	83	1	5

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Bryant Wesco Jr.	38	411	0	8
Tyler Brown	36	332	0	8
T.J. Moore	33	305	1	8
Christian Bentancur	12	151	2	8
Olsen Patt-Henry	14	115	1	8

Syracuse Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Clemson

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Clemson's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Clemson
Steven Angeli (Passing)	241 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm	5	~185 yds · 1.1 TD (Clemson defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Tylik Hill (Rushing)	74 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	7	~57 yds · 0.2 TD (Clemson defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 123 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ahmad Miller (Rushing)	64 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	7	~49 yds · 0.6 TD (Clemson defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 123 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Umari Hatcher (Receiving)	119 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm	8	~91 yds · 0.7 TD (Clemson defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Daunte Bacheyie (Receiving)	48 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	7	~37 yds · 0.4 TD (Clemson defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Calvin Russell III (Receiving)	52 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	4	~40 yds · 0.4 TD (Clemson defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 206 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Steven Angeli	1186	7	5	5
Malachi Nelson	532	3	2	3
Amari Odom	391	6	2	3
Danny Lauter	74	1	0	2
Jimmy Gregg	12	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Tylik Hill	99	522	2	7
Ahmad Miller	96	418	5	7
Ju'Juan Johnson	43	149	1	6
Shavane Anderson Jr.	30	146	3	3
Matt Outten	12	53	0	2

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Umari Hatcher	60	952	8	8
Daunte Bacheyie	22	333	4	7
Calvin Russell III	19	194	2	4
Justus Ross-Simmons	12	170	0	5
Darius Johnson	14	120	0	5