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TCU @ Arizona
2026-11-07T03:15:00.000Z
· Arizona Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Arizona
by 9.9
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Arizona -8.5 (opened -9.5),
O/U 44.5
Flags
TCU
- 🟡 side TCU averages 276 pass yds/game (8 games) — Arizona allows 200 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: TCU #41 nat'l, Arizona #14 nat'l.
Arizona
- 🟢 side Arizona averages 322 pass yds/game (8 games) — TCU allows 175 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Arizona #14 nat'l, TCU #41 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- 🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (TCU allows 288, Arizona allows 334) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: TCU #11 nat'l defense, Arizona #24 nat'l.
TCU Offense vs. Arizona Defense
TCU offense: 8 games this season ·
Arizona defense: 8 games this season
TCU: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 60 nationally ·
Arizona: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 62 nationally
| Stat (per game) | TCU offense | Arizona defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 390 #64 | 334 #47 |
| Rush yards | 115 #119 | 135 #59 |
| Pass yards | 276 #22 | 200 #49 |
| Plays | 67 | 67 |
| 3rd down % | 43% #47 | 38% #67 |
| Turnovers | 2 #114 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 25 (#83 nat'l) | 19 (#24 nat'l) |
Arizona Offense vs. TCU Defense
Arizona offense: 8 games this season ·
TCU defense: 8 games this season
Arizona: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 75 nationally ·
TCU: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 56 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Arizona offense | TCU defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 456 #17 | 288 #14 |
| Rush yards | 134 #103 | 113 #29 |
| Pass yards | 322 #6 | 175 #15 |
| Plays | 69 | 63 |
| 3rd down % | 52% #7 | 31% #20 |
| Turnovers | 1 #35 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 35 (#14 nat'l) | 16 (#11 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | TCU | Arizona |
|---|
| Total yards | 390 | 456 |
| Rush yards | 115 | 134 |
| Pass yards | 276 | 322 |
| Plays | 67 | 69 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
TCU Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Arizona
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Arizona's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Arizona |
|---|
| Jaden Craig (Passing) |
274 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~210 yds · 1.0 TD
(Arizona defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 200 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jeremy Payne (Rushing) |
75 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~58 yds · 0.2 TD
(Arizona defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 135 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jon Denman (Rushing) |
22 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~17 yds · 0.2 TD
(Arizona defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 135 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kari Ashley (Receiving) |
69 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~53 yds · 0.4 TD
(Arizona defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 200 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Ed Small (Receiving) |
67 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~52 yds · 0.2 TD
(Arizona defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 200 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jordan Dwyer (Receiving) |
106 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
4 |
~81 yds · 0.0 TD
(Arizona defense: SP+ #24 nat'l, 200 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Jaden Craig |
2207 | 11 | 6 |
8 |
| Adam Schobel |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jeremy Payne |
88 | 429 | 2 |
6 |
| Jon Denman |
47 | 158 | 2 |
7 |
| Jaden Craig |
67 | 109 | 2 |
8 |
| Landon Walker |
10 | 67 | 0 |
3 |
| Amante Martin |
18 | 66 | 1 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kari Ashley |
38 | 560 | 4 |
8 |
| Ed Small |
40 | 548 | 2 |
8 |
| Jordan Dwyer |
27 | 409 | 0 |
4 |
| Jeremy Scott |
15 | 203 | 1 |
6 |
| Jacobe Hayes |
14 | 196 | 0 |
7 |
Arizona Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. TCU
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for TCU's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. TCU |
|---|
| Noah Fifita (Passing) |
293 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~197 yds · 1.4 TD
(TCU defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kedrick Reescano (Rushing) |
38 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
8 |
~26 yds · 0.6 TD
(TCU defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 113 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Antwan Roberts (Rushing) |
33 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~22 yds · 0.2 TD
(TCU defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 113 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Isaiah Mizell (Receiving) |
92 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
7 |
~62 yds · 0.5 TD
(TCU defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tre Spivey (Receiving) |
50 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
5 |
~34 yds · 0.4 TD
(TCU defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Brandon Phelps (Receiving) |
31 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~21 yds · 0.2 TD
(TCU defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Noah Fifita |
2464 | 19 | 4 |
8 |
| Sawyer Anderson |
112 | 0 | 2 |
4 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Kedrick Reescano |
89 | 321 | 7 |
8 |
| Antwan Roberts |
39 | 263 | 2 |
7 |
| Quincy Craig |
36 | 246 | 2 |
8 |
| Noah Fifita |
57 | 97 | 3 |
8 |
| Ismail Mahdi |
12 | 72 | 0 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Isaiah Mizell |
34 | 675 | 6 |
7 |
| Tre Spivey |
22 | 314 | 4 |
5 |
| Brandon Phelps |
21 | 280 | 3 |
8 |
| Gio Richardson |
21 | 260 | 0 |
4 |
| Chris Hunter |
17 | 207 | 1 |
6 |