Oklahoma State @ Kansas State

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Bill Snyder Family Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Oklahoma State by 1.1 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Kansas State +6.5, O/U 60.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 5.4 pts more toward Kansas State than the market line does.

Flags

Oklahoma State

🟢 side Oklahoma State averages 339 pass yds/game (8 games) — Kansas State allows 152 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Oklahoma State #23 nat'l, Kansas State #39 nat'l.

Kansas State

🟡 side Kansas State averages 206 rush yds/game (8 games) — Oklahoma State allows 154 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Kansas State #39 nat'l, Oklahoma State #23 nat'l.

Oklahoma State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

Oklahoma State offense: 8 games this season · Kansas State defense: 8 games this season

Oklahoma State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 63 nationally · Kansas State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 71 nationally

Stat (per game)	Oklahoma State offense	Kansas State defense allowed
Total yards	530 #3	318 #32
Rush yards	191 #32	166 #103
Pass yards	339 #3	152 #7
Plays	72	61
3rd down %	40% #72	36% #50
Turnovers	2 #114	1 #133
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	36 (#11 nat'l)	23 (#45 nat'l)

Kansas State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense

Kansas State offense: 8 games this season · Oklahoma State defense: 8 games this season

Kansas State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 69 nationally · Oklahoma State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 57 nationally

Stat (per game)	Kansas State offense	Oklahoma State defense allowed
Total yards	427 #34	391 #103
Rush yards	206 #19	154 #87
Pass yards	221 #79	237 #105
Plays	71	68
3rd down %	53% #5	38% #62
Turnovers	1 #15	1 #45
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	31 (#40 nat'l)	24 (#52 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Oklahoma State	Kansas State
Total yards	530	427
Rush yards	191	206
Pass yards	339	221
Plays	72	71
Turnovers	2	1

Oklahoma State Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Kansas State

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Kansas State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Kansas State
Drew Mestemaker (Passing)	332 yds/gm · 3.1 TD/gm	8	~305 yds · 2.9 TD (Kansas State defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 152 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Caleb Hawkins (Rushing)	111 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~102 yds · 0.5 TD (Kansas State defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 166 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ayo Adeyi (Rushing)	33 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	6	~30 yds · 0.2 TD (Kansas State defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 166 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Justin Bowick (Receiving)	93 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm	8	~85 yds · 1.0 TD (Kansas State defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 152 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Wyatt Young (Receiving)	88 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm	8	~81 yds · 0.9 TD (Kansas State defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 152 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Miles Coleman (Receiving)	45 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~41 yds · 0.2 TD (Kansas State defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 152 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Drew Mestemaker	2649	25	7	8
Broderick Vehrs	61	1	0	2

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Caleb Hawkins	167	906	4	8
Ayo Adeyi	30	200	1	6
Drew Mestemaker	33	166	2	8
Tre Page III	20	113	2	4
William Mason	12	76	1	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Justin Bowick	41	731	9	8
Wyatt Young	43	713	8	8
Miles Coleman	25	365	2	8
Caleb Hawkins	31	353	2	7
Terrence Lewis	19	204	2	8

Kansas State Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Oklahoma State

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Oklahoma State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Oklahoma State
Avery Johnson (Passing)	199 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm	6	~193 yds · 1.5 TD (Oklahoma State defense: SP+ #52 nat'l, 237 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Rodney Fields Jr. (Rushing)	56 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~55 yds · 0.5 TD (Oklahoma State defense: SP+ #52 nat'l, 154 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Avery Johnson (Rushing)	70 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	6	~67 yds · 0.4 TD (Oklahoma State defense: SP+ #52 nat'l, 154 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jaron Tibbs (Receiving)	45 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~43 yds · 0.5 TD (Oklahoma State defense: SP+ #52 nat'l, 237 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Joshua Manning (Receiving)	43 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	7	~41 yds · 0.4 TD (Oklahoma State defense: SP+ #52 nat'l, 237 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Derrick Salley Jr. (Receiving)	73 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	4	~71 yds · 0.2 TD (Oklahoma State defense: SP+ #52 nat'l, 237 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Avery Johnson	1301	10	3	6
Blake Barnett	265	3	0	2
Jacob Knuth	201	1	0	2
Dillon Duff	2	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Rodney Fields Jr.	93	487	5	8
Avery Johnson	51	462	3	6
Joe Jackson	84	384	2	8
Jay Harris	17	96	3	4
Monterrio Elston Jr.	6	76	1	1

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Jaron Tibbs	39	379	4	8
Joshua Manning	32	327	3	7
Derrick Salley Jr.	19	311	1	4
Garrett Oakley	19	221	2	5
Linkon Cure	13	152	1	5