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Iowa State @ Baylor
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· McLane Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Baylor
by 12.2
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Baylor -9.5,
O/U 51.5
Flags
Iowa State
- 🟢 side Iowa State averages 177 rush yds/game (8 games) — Baylor allows 99 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Iowa State #76 nat'l, Baylor #43 nat'l.
Baylor
- 🟡 side Baylor averages 282 pass yds/game (8 games) — Iowa State allows 231 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Baylor #43 nat'l, Iowa State #76 nat'l.
Head-to-head
- 🟢 total Baylor averages 78 plays/game (8 games) vs. Iowa State's 62 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
Iowa State Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Iowa State offense: 8 games this season ·
Baylor defense: 8 games this season
Iowa State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 52 nationally ·
Baylor: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 76 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Iowa State offense | Baylor defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 370 #78 | 333 #44 |
| Rush yards | 177 #43 | 99 #17 |
| Pass yards | 193 #105 | 233 #98 |
| Plays | 62 | 72 |
| 3rd down % | 33% #123 | 32% #29 |
| Turnovers | 1 #25 | 2 #9 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 24 (#93 nat'l) | 20 (#29 nat'l) |
Baylor Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Baylor offense: 8 games this season ·
Iowa State defense: 8 games this season
Baylor: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 49 nationally ·
Iowa State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 40 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Baylor offense | Iowa State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 435 #32 | 390 #102 |
| Rush yards | 152 #74 | 159 #93 |
| Pass yards | 282 #18 | 231 #97 |
| Plays | 78 | 64 |
| 3rd down % | 40% #71 | 38% #69 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #60 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 28 (#59 nat'l) | 25 (#60 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Iowa State | Baylor |
|---|
| Total yards | 370 | 435 |
| Rush yards | 177 | 152 |
| Pass yards | 193 | 282 |
| Plays | 62 | 78 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Iowa State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Baylor
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Baylor's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Baylor |
|---|
| Jaylen Raynor (Passing) |
187 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~150 yds · 1.1 TD
(Baylor defense: SP+ #29 nat'l, 233 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Aiden Flora (Rushing) |
116 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~93 yds · 0.7 TD
(Baylor defense: SP+ #29 nat'l, 99 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaylen Raynor (Rushing) |
24 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~19 yds · 0.4 TD
(Baylor defense: SP+ #29 nat'l, 99 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jamal Polite Jr. (Receiving) |
43 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
7 |
~35 yds · 0.2 TD
(Baylor defense: SP+ #29 nat'l, 233 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Omari Hayes (Receiving) |
36 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~29 yds · 0.1 TD
(Baylor defense: SP+ #29 nat'l, 233 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cody Jackson (Receiving) |
51 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
4 |
~41 yds · 0.1 TD
(Baylor defense: SP+ #29 nat'l, 233 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Jaylen Raynor |
1416 | 10 | 5 |
8 |
| Connor Moberly |
83 | 0 | 0 |
3 |
| Aiden Flora |
48 | 2 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Aiden Flora |
131 | 937 | 8 |
8 |
| Jaylen Raynor |
67 | 193 | 4 |
8 |
| Arnold Barnes |
28 | 102 | 2 |
8 |
| Cameron Pettaway |
22 | 52 | 0 |
6 |
| Connor Moberly |
18 | 44 | 0 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jamal Polite Jr. |
14 | 286 | 2 |
7 |
| Omari Hayes |
21 | 246 | 1 |
8 |
| Cody Jackson |
13 | 236 | 1 |
4 |
| Dominic Overby |
10 | 212 | 1 |
4 |
| Tyler Claiborne |
16 | 156 | 0 |
7 |
Baylor Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Iowa State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Iowa State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Iowa State |
|---|
| D.J. Lagway (Passing) |
315 yds/gm · 2.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~323 yds · 2.4 TD
(Iowa State defense: SP+ #60 nat'l, 231 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Dawson Pendergrass (Rushing) |
44 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~45 yds · 0.2 TD
(Iowa State defense: SP+ #60 nat'l, 159 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Caden Knighten (Rushing) |
45 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~46 yds · 0.4 TD
(Iowa State defense: SP+ #60 nat'l, 159 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Gavin Freeman (Receiving) |
108 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~111 yds · 0.4 TD
(Iowa State defense: SP+ #60 nat'l, 231 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Louis Brown (Receiving) |
55 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
7 |
~57 yds · 0.5 TD
(Iowa State defense: SP+ #60 nat'l, 231 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jadon Porter (Receiving) |
50 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~52 yds · 0.3 TD
(Iowa State defense: SP+ #60 nat'l, 231 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| D.J. Lagway |
1671 | 13 | 4 |
6 |
| Nate Bennett |
568 | 5 | 2 |
3 |
| Edward Griffin |
19 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Dawson Pendergrass |
94 | 339 | 2 |
8 |
| Caden Knighten |
74 | 334 | 3 |
8 |
| Ryelan Morris |
45 | 295 | 1 |
7 |
| Michael Turner |
49 | 202 | 0 |
7 |
| D.J. Lagway |
37 | 42 | 1 |
6 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Gavin Freeman |
63 | 792 | 3 |
8 |
| Louis Brown |
22 | 345 | 3 |
7 |
| Jadon Porter |
14 | 273 | 2 |
6 |
| Jayden McGowan |
13 | 257 | 4 |
6 |
| Tony Livingston |
12 | 132 | 3 |
7 |