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Colorado @ Arizona State
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Mountain America Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Arizona State
by 9.1
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Arizona State -4.0,
O/U 49.5
Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 5.1 pts more toward
Arizona State than the market line does.
Flags
Colorado
- 🟡 side Colorado is committing more turnovers than it forces by 1.2/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
Colorado Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Colorado offense: 8 games this season ·
Arizona State defense: 8 games this season
Colorado: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 42 nationally ·
Arizona State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 49 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Colorado offense | Arizona State defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 396 #57 | 350 #60 |
| Rush yards | 140 #93 | 134 #58 |
| Pass yards | 256 #34 | 216 #75 |
| Plays | 69 | 66 |
| 3rd down % | 38% #88 | 35% #38 |
| Turnovers | 2 #137 | 1 #97 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 23 (#103 nat'l) | 24 (#53 nat'l) |
Arizona State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
Arizona State offense: 8 games this season ·
Colorado defense: 8 games this season
Arizona State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 43 nationally ·
Colorado: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 32 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Arizona State offense | Colorado defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 395 #60 | 386 #99 |
| Rush yards | 140 #92 | 137 #65 |
| Pass yards | 255 #37 | 249 #115 |
| Plays | 69 | 71 |
| 3rd down % | 31% #133 | 40% #92 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #108 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 27 (#66 nat'l) | 26 (#71 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Colorado | Arizona State |
|---|
| Total yards | 396 | 395 |
| Rush yards | 140 | 140 |
| Pass yards | 256 | 255 |
| Plays | 69 | 69 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
Colorado Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Arizona State
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Arizona State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Arizona State |
|---|
| Isaac Wilson (Passing) |
234 yds/gm · 1.4 TD/gm |
6 |
~229 yds · 1.4 TD
(Arizona State defense: SP+ #53 nat'l, 216 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jaquail Smith (Rushing) |
52 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~51 yds · 0.1 TD
(Arizona State defense: SP+ #53 nat'l, 134 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Micah Welch (Rushing) |
37 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
6 |
~36 yds · 0.3 TD
(Arizona State defense: SP+ #53 nat'l, 134 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Joseph Williams (Receiving) |
105 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~103 yds · 0.7 TD
(Arizona State defense: SP+ #53 nat'l, 216 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| DeAndre Moore Jr. (Receiving) |
76 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~74 yds · 0.5 TD
(Arizona State defense: SP+ #53 nat'l, 216 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Quanell Farrakhan Jr. (Receiving) |
50 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
6 |
~49 yds · 0.0 TD
(Arizona State defense: SP+ #53 nat'l, 216 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Isaac Wilson |
1164 | 7 | 7 |
6 |
| Julian Lewis |
733 | 6 | 2 |
4 |
| Kaneal Sweetwyne |
105 | 0 | 0 |
3 |
| Joseph Williams |
49 | 0 | 1 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jaquail Smith |
72 | 361 | 1 |
8 |
| Micah Welch |
43 | 220 | 2 |
6 |
| Richard Young |
40 | 169 | 2 |
5 |
| Damian Henderson II |
32 | 147 | 0 |
6 |
| Dekalon Taylor |
18 | 115 | 1 |
6 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Joseph Williams |
51 | 732 | 5 |
8 |
| DeAndre Moore Jr. |
31 | 478 | 3 |
7 |
| Quanell Farrakhan Jr. |
20 | 249 | 0 |
6 |
| Dekalon Taylor |
13 | 110 | 0 |
7 |
| Quentin Gibson |
10 | 90 | 0 |
4 |
Arizona State Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Colorado
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Colorado's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Colorado |
|---|
| Cutter Boley (Passing) |
212 yds/gm · 1.9 TD/gm |
7 |
~235 yds · 2.1 TD
(Colorado defense: SP+ #71 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cardae Mack (Rushing) |
81 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm |
7 |
~90 yds · 0.9 TD
(Colorado defense: SP+ #71 nat'l, 137 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Kyson Brown (Rushing) |
47 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~52 yds · 0.1 TD
(Colorado defense: SP+ #71 nat'l, 137 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Reed Harris (Receiving) |
111 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~123 yds · 1.2 TD
(Colorado defense: SP+ #71 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Omarion Miller (Receiving) |
59 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~65 yds · 0.5 TD
(Colorado defense: SP+ #71 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Derek Eusebio (Receiving) |
69 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
3 |
~77 yds · 0.0 TD
(Colorado defense: SP+ #71 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Cutter Boley |
1360 | 13 | 5 |
7 |
| Mikey Keene |
448 | 2 | 0 |
3 |
| Jake Fette |
224 | 2 | 0 |
3 |
| Kyson Brown |
6 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Cardae Mack |
78 | 523 | 6 |
7 |
| Kyson Brown |
63 | 343 | 1 |
8 |
| Marquis Gillis |
31 | 145 | 1 |
7 |
| Cutter Boley |
42 | 66 | 1 |
7 |
| Jason Brown Jr. |
9 | 64 | 1 |
2 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Reed Harris |
48 | 804 | 8 |
8 |
| Omarion Miller |
41 | 427 | 3 |
8 |
| Derek Eusebio |
16 | 160 | 0 |
3 |
| Raiden Vines-Bright |
9 | 127 | 1 |
6 |
| Grayson Rigdon |
2 | 110 | 2 |
1 |