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Cincinnati @ Houston
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· TDECU Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Houston
by 9.1
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Houston -10.5,
O/U 62.5
Flags
Cincinnati
- 🟢 side Cincinnati averages 229 rush yds/game (8 games) — Houston allows 100 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Cincinnati #49 nat'l, Houston #22 nat'l.
Houston
- 🟡 side Houston averages 204 rush yds/game (8 games) — Cincinnati allows 160 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Houston #22 nat'l, Cincinnati #49 nat'l.
Cincinnati Offense vs. Houston Defense
Cincinnati offense: 8 games this season ·
Houston defense: 8 games this season
Cincinnati: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 52 nationally ·
Houston: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 37 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Cincinnati offense | Houston defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 455 #18 | 358 #65 |
| Rush yards | 229 #7 | 100 #21 |
| Pass yards | 226 #72 | 257 #127 |
| Plays | 66 | 60 |
| 3rd down % | 45% #33 | 38% #58 |
| Turnovers | 1 #15 | 2 #31 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 34 (#21 nat'l) | 23 (#45 nat'l) |
Houston Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Houston offense: 8 games this season ·
Cincinnati defense: 8 games this season
Houston: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 47 nationally ·
Cincinnati: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 42 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Houston offense | Cincinnati defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 470 #12 | 442 #132 |
| Rush yards | 204 #20 | 160 #94 |
| Pass yards | 267 #28 | 282 #134 |
| Plays | 70 | 72 |
| 3rd down % | 60% #1 | 44% #122 |
| Turnovers | 1 #15 | 2 #31 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 36 (#11 nat'l) | 27 (#78 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Cincinnati | Houston |
|---|
| Total yards | 455 | 470 |
| Rush yards | 229 | 204 |
| Pass yards | 226 | 267 |
| Plays | 66 | 70 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Cincinnati Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Houston
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Houston's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Houston |
|---|
| JC French (Passing) |
227 yds/gm · 1.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~209 yds · 1.5 TD
(Houston defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 257 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Cole Tabb (Rushing) |
103 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~94 yds · 1.2 TD
(Houston defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 100 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Gi'Bran Payne (Rushing) |
73 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~67 yds · 0.3 TD
(Houston defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 100 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| JaVonnie Gibson (Receiving) |
68 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
7 |
~62 yds · 0.5 TD
(Houston defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 257 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Malachi Henry (Receiving) |
46 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~42 yds · 0.3 TD
(Houston defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 257 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Isaiah Johnson (Receiving) |
32 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm |
8 |
~29 yds · 0.1 TD
(Houston defense: SP+ #45 nat'l, 257 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| JC French |
1773 | 13 | 3 |
8 |
| Liam O'Brien |
18 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Samaj Jones |
9 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Malachi Henry |
8 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Cole Tabb |
79 | 752 | 10 |
8 |
| Gi'Bran Payne |
78 | 485 | 2 |
7 |
| JC French |
82 | 289 | 7 |
8 |
| Zylan Perry |
26 | 168 | 1 |
4 |
| Samaj Jones |
10 | 60 | 1 |
3 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| JaVonnie Gibson |
34 | 461 | 4 |
7 |
| Malachi Henry |
10 | 334 | 2 |
7 |
| Isaiah Johnson |
27 | 259 | 1 |
8 |
| Larenzo Fenner |
14 | 185 | 1 |
7 |
| Cole Tabb |
17 | 155 | 3 |
5 |
Houston Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Cincinnati
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Cincinnati's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Cincinnati |
|---|
| Conner Weigman (Passing) |
280 yds/gm · 2.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~325 yds · 3.0 TD
(Cincinnati defense: SP+ #78 nat'l, 282 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Makhi Hughes (Rushing) |
69 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm |
8 |
~80 yds · 0.6 TD
(Cincinnati defense: SP+ #78 nat'l, 160 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Re'Shaun Sanford II (Rushing) |
56 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~65 yds · 0.3 TD
(Cincinnati defense: SP+ #78 nat'l, 160 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Amare Thomas (Receiving) |
86 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~100 yds · 0.9 TD
(Cincinnati defense: SP+ #78 nat'l, 282 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Patrick Overmyer (Receiving) |
57 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm |
8 |
~66 yds · 1.1 TD
(Cincinnati defense: SP+ #78 nat'l, 282 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Trent Walker (Receiving) |
48 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~56 yds · 0.3 TD
(Cincinnati defense: SP+ #78 nat'l, 282 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Conner Weigman |
2052 | 20 | 2 |
8 |
| Keisean Henderson |
83 | 2 | 0 |
2 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Makhi Hughes |
117 | 517 | 4 |
8 |
| Re'Shaun Sanford II |
87 | 447 | 2 |
8 |
| Conner Weigman |
67 | 249 | 6 |
8 |
| DJ Butler |
11 | 86 | 1 |
4 |
| Koby Young |
6 | 85 | 0 |
5 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Amare Thomas |
41 | 620 | 6 |
8 |
| Patrick Overmyer |
39 | 431 | 7 |
8 |
| Trent Walker |
28 | 382 | 2 |
8 |
| Koby Young |
18 | 347 | 5 |
8 |
| Re'Shaun Sanford II |
12 | 149 | 0 |
6 |