BYU @ Utah

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Rice-Eccles Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Utah by 3.8 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Utah -5.5 (opened -3.0), O/U 45.5

Flags

Conflicting signals: this game has flags leaning both over and under on the total — see below.

BYU

🟢 side BYU averages 175 rush yds/game (8 games) — Utah allows 101 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: BYU #13 nat'l, Utah #10 nat'l.

Utah

🟢 side Utah averages 227 rush yds/game (8 games) — BYU allows 100 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Utah #10 nat'l, BYU #13 nat'l.
🟡 side Utah averages 258 pass yds/game (8 games) — BYU allows 199 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Utah #10 nat'l, BYU #13 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (BYU allows 299, Utah allows 330) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: BYU #20 nat'l defense, Utah #22 nat'l.
🟡 total Utah averages 70 plays/game (8 games) vs. BYU's 62 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.

BYU Offense vs. Utah Defense

BYU offense: 8 games this season · Utah defense: 8 games this season

BYU: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 47 nationally · Utah: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 68 nationally

Stat (per game)	BYU offense	Utah defense allowed
Total yards	398 #56	330 #40
Rush yards	175 #45	101 #22
Pass yards	222 #77	229 #96
Plays	62	63
3rd down %	51% #14	34% #36
Turnovers	1 #35	2 #31
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	34 (#20 nat'l)	18 (#22 nat'l)

Utah Offense vs. BYU Defense

Utah offense: 8 games this season · BYU defense: 8 games this season

Utah: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 66 nationally · BYU: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 54 nationally

Stat (per game)	Utah offense	BYU defense allowed
Total yards	486 #9	299 #19
Rush yards	227 #8	100 #20
Pass yards	258 #32	199 #48
Plays	70	66
3rd down %	54% #3	39% #82
Turnovers	1 #63	1 #78
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	36 (#13 nat'l)	18 (#20 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	BYU	Utah
Total yards	398	486
Rush yards	175	227
Pass yards	222	258
Plays	62	70
Turnovers	1	1

BYU Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Utah

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Utah's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Utah
Bear Bachmeier (Passing)	239 yds/gm · 1.7 TD/gm	8	~180 yds · 1.3 TD (Utah defense: SP+ #22 nat'l, 229 raw yds/gm allowed here)
LJ Martin (Rushing)	80 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	4	~60 yds · 0.4 TD (Utah defense: SP+ #22 nat'l, 101 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Bear Bachmeier (Rushing)	51 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm	8	~38 yds · 0.9 TD (Utah defense: SP+ #22 nat'l, 101 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Legend Glasker (Receiving)	76 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~57 yds · 0.4 TD (Utah defense: SP+ #22 nat'l, 229 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kyler Kasper (Receiving)	62 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~47 yds · 0.5 TD (Utah defense: SP+ #22 nat'l, 229 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Walker Lyons (Receiving)	35 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~26 yds · 0.1 TD (Utah defense: SP+ #22 nat'l, 229 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Bear Bachmeier	1750	12	4	8
Treyson Bourguet	15	0	1	2
Kyler Kasper	15	1	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
LJ Martin	44	344	3	4
Bear Bachmeier	80	336	7	8
Preston Rex	39	223	2	7
Journee Tonga	32	184	2	6
Legend Glasker	17	109	2	8

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Legend Glasker	32	585	4	8
Kyler Kasper	30	430	5	8
Walker Lyons	24	255	1	8
Roger Saleapaga	12	146	0	7
Jojo Phillips	14	130	1	7

Utah Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. BYU

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for BYU's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. BYU
Devon Dampier (Passing)	220 yds/gm · 2.1 TD/gm	8	~162 yds · 1.5 TD (BYU defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 199 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Wayshawn Parker (Rushing)	87 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm	8	~64 yds · 0.8 TD (BYU defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 100 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Devon Dampier (Rushing)	49 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~36 yds · 0.4 TD (BYU defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 100 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Braden Pegan (Receiving)	60 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~44 yds · 0.5 TD (BYU defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 199 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Creed Whittemore (Receiving)	41 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	8	~30 yds · 0.0 TD (BYU defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 199 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Wayshawn Parker (Receiving)	31 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~23 yds · 0.4 TD (BYU defense: SP+ #20 nat'l, 199 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Devon Dampier	1876	18	7	8
Byrd Ficklin	192	2	0	5

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Wayshawn Parker	109	726	9	8
Devon Dampier	83	394	5	8
Daniel Bray	32	237	2	8
Byrd Ficklin	28	174	1	8
LaMarcus Bell	10	109	1	3

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Braden Pegan	39	505	6	8
Creed Whittemore	21	347	0	8
Wayshawn Parker	26	264	4	8
Noah Bennee	18	248	3	6
Ricky Johnson	17	248	1	7