Kentucky @ Tennessee

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Neyland Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Tennessee by 9.8 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Tennessee -6.0, O/U 50.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 3.8 pts more toward Tennessee than the market line does.

Flags

Kentucky

🟡 side Kentucky is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.6/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.
🟡 side Kentucky averages 167 rush yds/game (8 games) — Tennessee allows 123 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Kentucky #31 nat'l, Tennessee #11 nat'l.
🟡 side Kentucky averages 219 pass yds/game (8 games) — Tennessee allows 166 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Kentucky #31 nat'l, Tennessee #11 nat'l.

Tennessee

🟢 side Tennessee averages 213 rush yds/game (8 games) — Kentucky allows 113 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Tennessee #11 nat'l, Kentucky #31 nat'l.

Kentucky Offense vs. Tennessee Defense

Kentucky offense: 8 games this season · Tennessee defense: 8 games this season

Kentucky: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 47 nationally · Tennessee: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 51 nationally

Stat (per game)	Kentucky offense	Tennessee defense allowed
Total yards	386 #68	288 #15
Rush yards	167 #55	123 #36
Pass yards	219 #80	166 #9
Plays	64	62
3rd down %	34% #117	32% #24
Turnovers	1 #7	2 #14
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	33 (#27 nat'l)	17 (#18 nat'l)

Tennessee Offense vs. Kentucky Defense

Tennessee offense: 8 games this season · Kentucky defense: 8 games this season

Tennessee: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 55 nationally · Kentucky: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 44 nationally

Stat (per game)	Tennessee offense	Kentucky defense allowed
Total yards	394 #61	363 #72
Rush yards	213 #16	113 #30
Pass yards	182 #116	249 #117
Plays	70	70
3rd down %	37% #93	48% #131
Turnovers	1 #76	2 #4
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	34 (#17 nat'l)	22 (#38 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Kentucky	Tennessee
Total yards	386	394
Rush yards	167	213
Pass yards	219	182
Plays	64	70
Turnovers	1	1

Kentucky Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Tennessee

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Tennessee's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Tennessee
Kenny Minchey (Passing)	253 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm	8	~183 yds · 1.4 TD (Tennessee defense: SP+ #18 nat'l, 166 raw yds/gm allowed here)
CJ Baxter Jr. (Rushing)	77 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm	7	~56 yds · 1.0 TD (Tennessee defense: SP+ #18 nat'l, 123 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jason Patterson (Rushing)	56 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~40 yds · 0.2 TD (Tennessee defense: SP+ #18 nat'l, 123 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kenny Darby (Receiving)	73 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~53 yds · 0.3 TD (Tennessee defense: SP+ #18 nat'l, 166 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Willie Rodriguez (Receiving)	46 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~34 yds · 0.4 TD (Tennessee defense: SP+ #18 nat'l, 166 raw yds/gm allowed here)
DJ Miller (Receiving)	70 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	4	~51 yds · 0.1 TD (Tennessee defense: SP+ #18 nat'l, 166 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Kenny Minchey	1755	14	1	8
Callum Wither	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
CJ Baxter Jr.	88	487	8	7
Jason Patterson	71	443	3	8
Jovantae Barnes	43	224	1	6
Mikkel Skinner	8	57	0	4
Kenny Minchey	44	38	2	8

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Kenny Darby	38	507	3	8
Willie Rodriguez	39	324	3	8
DJ Miller	18	221	1	4
Nic Anderson	17	197	1	6
Henry Boyer	9	120	3	6

Tennessee Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Kentucky

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Kentucky's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Kentucky
George MacIntyre (Passing)	134 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	6	~116 yds · 0.3 TD (Kentucky defense: SP+ #38 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here)
DeSean Bishop (Rushing)	130 yds/gm · 1.5 TD/gm	8	~112 yds · 1.3 TD (Kentucky defense: SP+ #38 nat'l, 113 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Daune Morris (Rushing)	40 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~35 yds · 0.2 TD (Kentucky defense: SP+ #38 nat'l, 113 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Mike Matthews (Receiving)	74 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~64 yds · 0.4 TD (Kentucky defense: SP+ #38 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Braylon Staley (Receiving)	33 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~29 yds · 0.2 TD (Kentucky defense: SP+ #38 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dasaahn Brame (Receiving)	33 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	6	~29 yds · 0.0 TD (Kentucky defense: SP+ #38 nat'l, 249 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
George MacIntyre	728	2	3	6
Faizon Brandon	697	7	1	5
Ryan Staub	27	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
DeSean Bishop	171	957	11	8
Daune Morris	61	349	2	8
Faizon Brandon	53	130	3	5
Javin Gordon	26	120	0	3
Justin Baker	4	91	1	2

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Mike Matthews	34	528	3	8
Braylon Staley	32	259	2	8
Dasaahn Brame	14	181	0	6
Radarious Jackson	12	145	0	6
DeSean Bishop	9	64	0	5