Texas @ Missouri

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Memorial Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Texas by 3.7 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Missouri +2.5 (opened +3.5), O/U 46.5

Flags

Missouri

🟡 side Missouri averages 170 rush yds/game (8 games) — Texas allows 102 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Missouri #18 nat'l, Texas #8 nat'l.
🟡 side Missouri averages 255 pass yds/game (8 games) — Texas allows 171 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Missouri #18 nat'l, Texas #8 nat'l.
🟡 side Missouri is forcing more turnovers than it commits by 1.0/game (8 games) — turnover margin is one of the least sticky season-over-season stats, a candidate to regress.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (Texas allows 273, Missouri allows 325) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: Texas #7 nat'l defense, Missouri #11 nat'l.

Texas Offense vs. Missouri Defense

Texas offense: 8 games this season · Missouri defense: 8 games this season

Texas: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 48 nationally · Missouri: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 49 nationally

Stat (per game)	Texas offense	Missouri defense allowed
Total yards	358 #91	325 #37
Rush yards	134 #102	99 #16
Pass yards	224 #74	227 #92
Plays	66	68
3rd down %	40% #76	38% #65
Turnovers	2 #103	2 #23
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	35 (#16 nat'l)	16 (#11 nat'l)

Missouri Offense vs. Texas Defense

Missouri offense: 8 games this season · Texas defense: 8 games this season

Missouri: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 62 nationally · Texas: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 30 nationally

Stat (per game)	Missouri offense	Texas defense allowed
Total yards	425 #37	273 #9
Rush yards	170 #50	102 #24
Pass yards	255 #36	171 #12
Plays	68	68
3rd down %	42% #51	33% #30
Turnovers	1 #7	1 #78
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	31 (#42 nat'l)	14 (#7 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Texas	Missouri
Total yards	358	425
Rush yards	134	170
Pass yards	224	255
Plays	66	68
Turnovers	2	1

Texas Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Missouri

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Missouri's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Missouri
Arch Manning (Passing)	247 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm	8	~166 yds · 1.3 TD (Missouri defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Raleek Brown (Rushing)	65 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~44 yds · 0.4 TD (Missouri defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 99 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Daylan Smothers (Rushing)	55 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	6	~37 yds · 0.4 TD (Missouri defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 99 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ryan Wingo (Receiving)	65 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~43 yds · 0.4 TD (Missouri defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Emmett Mosley V (Receiving)	61 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~41 yds · 0.1 TD (Missouri defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Cam Coleman (Receiving)	58 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~39 yds · 0.6 TD (Missouri defense: SP+ #11 nat'l, 227 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Arch Manning	1730	15	7	8
Karle Lacey Jr.	63	0	0	3

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Raleek Brown	92	452	5	8
Daylan Smothers	69	283	2	6
Arch Manning	69	111	2	8
Michael Terry III	22	104	1	4
Derrek Cooper	29	103	1	5

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Ryan Wingo	36	470	4	8
Emmett Mosley V	25	419	1	8
Cam Coleman	22	395	7	8
Jermaine Bishop Jr.	16	151	1	7
Daylan Smothers	12	96	1	5

Missouri Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Texas

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Texas's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Texas
Austin Simmons (Passing)	241 yds/gm · 1.9 TD/gm	8	~155 yds · 1.2 TD (Texas defense: SP+ #7 nat'l, 171 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jamal Roberts (Rushing)	126 yds/gm · 1.1 TD/gm	8	~81 yds · 0.7 TD (Texas defense: SP+ #7 nat'l, 102 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Xai'Shaun Edwards (Rushing)	21 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	7	~13 yds · 0.1 TD (Texas defense: SP+ #7 nat'l, 102 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Cayden Lee (Receiving)	91 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~58 yds · 0.4 TD (Texas defense: SP+ #7 nat'l, 171 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Donovan Olugbode (Receiving)	84 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm	7	~54 yds · 0.6 TD (Texas defense: SP+ #7 nat'l, 171 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Naeshaun Montgomery (Receiving)	22 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	7	~14 yds · 0.0 TD (Texas defense: SP+ #7 nat'l, 171 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Austin Simmons	1935	16	2	8
Matt Zollers	87	0	0	2
Nick Evers	18	0	0	1
Donovan Olugbode	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Jamal Roberts	190	1005	9	8
Xai'Shaun Edwards	39	146	1	7
Preston Hatfield	6	46	1	2
Ahmad Hardy	3	42	0	1
Anthony Favrow	8	30	0	1

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Cayden Lee	51	730	5	8
Donovan Olugbode	41	593	7	7
Naeshaun Montgomery	13	155	0	7
Jamal Roberts	16	125	1	7
Shaun Terry II	9	96	1	3