Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Davis Wade Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Mississippi State by 9.9 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Mississippi State -3.5 (opened -3.0), O/U 48.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 6.4 pts more toward Mississippi State than the market line does.

Flags

Head-to-head

🟡 total Mississippi State averages 69 plays/game (8 games) vs. Vanderbilt's 63 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.

Vanderbilt Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense

Vanderbilt offense: 8 games this season · Mississippi State defense: 8 games this season

Vanderbilt: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 63 nationally · Mississippi State: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 51 nationally

Stat (per game)	Vanderbilt offense	Mississippi State defense allowed
Total yards	343 #109	378 #92
Rush yards	106 #129	116 #33
Pass yards	237 #59	262 #129
Plays	63	67
3rd down %	41% #59	41% #99
Turnovers	2 #126	1 #108
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	27 (#66 nat'l)	26 (#68 nat'l)

Mississippi State Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense

Mississippi State offense: 8 games this season · Vanderbilt defense: 8 games this season

Mississippi State: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 31 nationally · Vanderbilt: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 45 nationally

Stat (per game)	Mississippi State offense	Vanderbilt defense allowed
Total yards	408 #51	367 #75
Rush yards	162 #64	150 #78
Pass yards	246 #47	217 #77
Plays	69	65
3rd down %	40% #67	43% #117
Turnovers	1 #76	1 #108
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	32 (#35 nat'l)	29 (#89 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Vanderbilt	Mississippi State
Total yards	343	408
Rush yards	106	162
Pass yards	237	246
Plays	63	69
Turnovers	2	1

Vanderbilt Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Mississippi State

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Mississippi State's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Mississippi State
Jared Curtis (Passing)	199 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm	7	~216 yds · 1.1 TD (Mississippi State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 262 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Sedrick Alexander (Rushing)	33 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~36 yds · 0.7 TD (Mississippi State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 116 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Makhilyn Young (Rushing)	26 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~28 yds · 0.2 TD (Mississippi State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 116 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Junior Sherrill (Receiving)	91 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~99 yds · 0.5 TD (Mississippi State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 262 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ja'Cory Thomas (Receiving)	43 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	6	~47 yds · 0.4 TD (Mississippi State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 262 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Tristen Brown (Receiving)	24 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	7	~26 yds · 0.0 TD (Mississippi State defense: SP+ #68 nat'l, 262 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Jared Curtis	1489	8	8	7
Blaze Berlowitz	386	1	1	4
Whit Muschamp	18	0	0	1
Tyler Ebel	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Sedrick Alexander	64	274	5	8
Makhilyn Young	55	214	2	8
Jared Curtis	63	150	2	7
Blaze Berlowitz	25	111	1	4
Jamezell Lassiter	23	88	1	8

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Junior Sherrill	49	706	4	8
Ja'Cory Thomas	15	230	2	6
Tristen Brown	15	176	0	7
Jayvontay Conner	15	166	1	5
Sedrick Alexander	14	123	1	7

Mississippi State Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Vanderbilt

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Vanderbilt's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Vanderbilt
Kamario Taylor (Passing)	284 yds/gm · 3.2 TD/gm	6	~352 yds · 4.0 TD (Vanderbilt defense: SP+ #89 nat'l, 217 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Fluff Bothwell (Rushing)	105 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	7	~130 yds · 0.7 TD (Vanderbilt defense: SP+ #89 nat'l, 150 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kolin Wilson (Rushing)	37 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	8	~46 yds · 0.0 TD (Vanderbilt defense: SP+ #89 nat'l, 150 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Anthony Evans III (Receiving)	105 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~130 yds · 0.9 TD (Vanderbilt defense: SP+ #89 nat'l, 217 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Sanfrisco Magee (Receiving)	63 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm	8	~78 yds · 1.2 TD (Vanderbilt defense: SP+ #89 nat'l, 217 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Marquis Johnson (Receiving)	48 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm	8	~60 yds · 0.3 TD (Vanderbilt defense: SP+ #89 nat'l, 217 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Kamario Taylor	1460	17	4	6
Parker Puckett	390	1	2	5
AJ Swann	97	0	0	1
Sam West	18	1	0	1
Gracen Harris	7	1	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Fluff Bothwell	108	563	3	7
Kolin Wilson	58	230	0	8
J.J. Hill	20	162	2	4
Kamario Taylor	46	147	1	6
Parker Puckett	29	105	0	4

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Anthony Evans III	56	666	5	8
Sanfrisco Magee	23	376	6	8
Marquis Johnson	24	320	2	8
Zion Ragins	15	214	4	8
Fluff Bothwell	13	117	1	6