Georgia @ Ole Miss

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

Power rating (SP+) implies Georgia by 9.9 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): Ole Miss +3.0 (opened +4.5), O/U 56.5

Model vs. market gap: power rating leans 6.9 pts more toward Georgia than the market line does.

Flags

Georgia

🟡 side Georgia averages 200 rush yds/game (8 games) — Ole Miss allows 149 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Georgia #2 nat'l, Ole Miss #16 nat'l.

Ole Miss

🟢 side Ole Miss averages 282 pass yds/game (8 games) — Georgia allows 187 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Ole Miss #16 nat'l, Georgia #2 nat'l.
🟢 side Ole Miss averages 158 rush yds/game (8 games) — Georgia allows 87 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Ole Miss #16 nat'l, Georgia #2 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟢 total Ole Miss averages 72 plays/game (8 games) vs. Georgia's 62 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.

Georgia Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

Georgia offense: 8 games this season · Ole Miss defense: 8 games this season

Georgia: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 54 nationally · Ole Miss: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 45 nationally

Stat (per game)	Georgia offense	Ole Miss defense allowed
Total yards	451 #20	384 #97
Rush yards	200 #25	149 #76
Pass yards	251 #38	235 #101
Plays	62	70
3rd down %	52% #12	42% #113
Turnovers	1 #48	2 #31
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	40 (#2 nat'l)	23 (#48 nat'l)

Ole Miss Offense vs. Georgia Defense

Ole Miss offense: 8 games this season · Georgia defense: 8 games this season

Ole Miss: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 49 nationally · Georgia: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 62 nationally

Stat (per game)	Ole Miss offense	Georgia defense allowed
Total yards	440 #26	273 #10
Rush yards	158 #68	87 #9
Pass yards	282 #19	187 #32
Plays	72	64
3rd down %	50% #15	36% #47
Turnovers	2 #103	2 #9
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	37 (#7 nat'l)	13 (#4 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Georgia	Ole Miss
Total yards	451	440
Rush yards	200	158
Pass yards	251	282
Plays	62	72
Turnovers	1	2

Georgia Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Ole Miss

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Ole Miss's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Ole Miss
Gunner Stockton (Passing)	225 yds/gm · 1.9 TD/gm	8	~212 yds · 1.8 TD (Ole Miss defense: SP+ #48 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dwight Phillips Jr. (Rushing)	66 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~62 yds · 0.3 TD (Ole Miss defense: SP+ #48 nat'l, 149 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Nate Frazier (Rushing)	46 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm	6	~43 yds · 0.9 TD (Ole Miss defense: SP+ #48 nat'l, 149 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Craig Dandridge (Receiving)	46 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~43 yds · 0.1 TD (Ole Miss defense: SP+ #48 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Talyn Taylor (Receiving)	53 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	7	~50 yds · 0.4 TD (Ole Miss defense: SP+ #48 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Lawson Luckie (Receiving)	29 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	7	~27 yds · 0.3 TD (Ole Miss defense: SP+ #48 nat'l, 235 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Gunner Stockton	1671	16	4	8
Ryan Puglisi	252	2	0	5
Ryan Montgomery	66	1	0	2
Hezekiah Millender	17	0	0	1
Drew Miller	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Dwight Phillips Jr.	55	415	2	8
Nate Frazier	47	297	6	6
Bo Walker	38	230	1	7
Gunner Stockton	47	205	1	7
Chauncey Bowens	35	124	6	5

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Craig Dandridge	20	349	1	8
Talyn Taylor	21	286	3	7
Lawson Luckie	12	197	2	7
Sacovie White	15	174	1	6
London Humphreys	14	136	3	6

Ole Miss Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Georgia

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Georgia's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Georgia
Trinidad Chambliss (Passing)	324 yds/gm · 2.6 TD/gm	8	~202 yds · 1.6 TD (Georgia defense: SP+ #4 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Kewan Lacy (Rushing)	75 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	6	~47 yds · 0.5 TD (Georgia defense: SP+ #4 nat'l, 87 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Makhi Frazier (Rushing)	61 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm	7	~38 yds · 0.0 TD (Georgia defense: SP+ #4 nat'l, 87 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Deuce Alexander (Receiving)	92 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	8	~57 yds · 0.4 TD (Georgia defense: SP+ #4 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Caleb Odom (Receiving)	66 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	7	~41 yds · 0.2 TD (Georgia defense: SP+ #4 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Horatio Fields (Receiving)	53 yds/gm · 0.8 TD/gm	8	~33 yds · 0.5 TD (Georgia defense: SP+ #4 nat'l, 187 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Trinidad Chambliss	2189	18	8	8
Deuce Knight	68	0	1	1
Traylon Ray	0	0	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Kewan Lacy	78	388	5	6
Makhi Frazier	68	357	0	7
Trinidad Chambliss	48	199	7	8
Shekai Mills-Knight	20	113	2	2
JT Lindsey	28	94	0	6

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Deuce Alexander	48	669	5	8
Caleb Odom	27	360	2	7
Horatio Fields	28	356	5	8
Traylon Ray	21	289	1	7
Caleb Cunningham	19	231	2	5