Alabama @ LSU

2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z · Tiger Stadium (LA)

Power rating (SP+) implies LSU by 6.8 (rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).

Market line (DraftKings): LSU -4.5 (opened -3.5), O/U 52.5

Flags

Conflicting signals: this game has flags leaning both over and under on the total — see below.

Alabama

🟢 side Alabama averages 260 pass yds/game (8 games) — LSU allows 173 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Alabama #7 nat'l, LSU #3 nat'l.
🟡 side Alabama averages 152 rush yds/game (8 games) — LSU allows 86 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Alabama #7 nat'l, LSU #3 nat'l.

LSU

🟢 side LSU averages 192 rush yds/game (8 games) — Alabama allows 108 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: LSU #3 nat'l, Alabama #7 nat'l.
🟢 side LSU averages 318 pass yds/game (8 games) — Alabama allows 222 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: LSU #3 nat'l, Alabama #7 nat'l.

Head-to-head

🟢 total LSU averages 80 plays/game (8 games) vs. Alabama's 63 plays/game (8 games) — a pace mismatch that tends to push total plays run, and scoring chances, up.
🟢 total Both defenses are well under the FBS average of ~388 yds/game (Alabama allows 330, LSU allows 258) — two stout defenses, an under-friendly signal for the total. SP+ agrees: Alabama #14 nat'l defense, LSU #5 nat'l.

Alabama Offense vs. LSU Defense

Alabama offense: 8 games this season · LSU defense: 8 games this season

Alabama: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 44 nationally · LSU: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 52 nationally

Stat (per game)	Alabama offense	LSU defense allowed
Total yards	412 #47	258 #5
Rush yards	152 #75	86 #8
Pass yards	260 #31	173 #13
Plays	63	60
3rd down %	43% #44	31% #11
Turnovers	2 #103	1 #78
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	37 (#7 nat'l)	13 (#5 nat'l)

LSU Offense vs. Alabama Defense

LSU offense: 8 games this season · Alabama defense: 8 games this season

LSU: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 45 nationally · Alabama: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 36 nationally

Stat (per game)	LSU offense	Alabama defense allowed
Total yards	510 #5	330 #40
Rush yards	192 #30	108 #27
Pass yards	318 #8	222 #86
Plays	80	63
3rd down %	52% #10	33% #30
Turnovers	1 #76	2 #3
SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted)	39 (#5 nat'l)	17 (#14 nat'l)

Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)

Stat (per game)	Alabama	LSU
Total yards	412	510
Rush yards	152	192
Pass yards	260	318
Plays	63	80
Turnovers	2	1

Alabama Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. LSU

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for LSU's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. LSU
Keelon Russell (Passing)	282 yds/gm · 2.0 TD/gm	8	~177 yds · 1.3 TD (LSU defense: SP+ #5 nat'l, 173 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Daniel Hill (Rushing)	46 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm	8	~29 yds · 0.3 TD (LSU defense: SP+ #5 nat'l, 86 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Trae'shawn Brown (Rushing)	47 yds/gm · 0.6 TD/gm	8	~29 yds · 0.4 TD (LSU defense: SP+ #5 nat'l, 86 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Lotzeir Brooks (Receiving)	66 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~41 yds · 0.1 TD (LSU defense: SP+ #5 nat'l, 173 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Rico Scott (Receiving)	62 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm	8	~39 yds · 0.2 TD (LSU defense: SP+ #5 nat'l, 173 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Ryan Williams (Receiving)	72 yds/gm · 0.7 TD/gm	6	~45 yds · 0.4 TD (LSU defense: SP+ #5 nat'l, 173 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Keelon Russell	2057	15	5	8
Austin Mack	23	0	0	2

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Daniel Hill	71	332	4	8
Trae'shawn Brown	64	324	5	8
Keelon Russell	66	251	5	8
EJ Crowell	32	216	4	7
Kevin Riley	11	37	0	4

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Lotzeir Brooks	29	488	1	8
Rico Scott	28	434	3	8
Ryan Williams	23	415	4	6
Marshall Pritchett	18	237	2	7
Kaleb Edwards	14	172	2	7

LSU Players

Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Alabama

"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Alabama's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.

Player	Vacuum pace	GP	Projected vs. Alabama
Sam Leavitt (Passing)	298 yds/gm · 2.3 TD/gm	8	~207 yds · 1.6 TD (Alabama defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Dilin Jones (Rushing)	91 yds/gm · 0.9 TD/gm	8	~63 yds · 0.6 TD (Alabama defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 108 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Sam Leavitt (Rushing)	54 yds/gm · 1.2 TD/gm	7	~38 yds · 0.9 TD (Alabama defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 108 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Jackson Harris (Receiving)	89 yds/gm · 1.0 TD/gm	8	~62 yds · 0.7 TD (Alabama defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Winston Watkins (Receiving)	70 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm	8	~48 yds · 0.2 TD (Alabama defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)
Eugene Wilson (Receiving)	37 yds/gm · 0.1 TD/gm	8	~26 yds · 0.1 TD (Alabama defense: SP+ #14 nat'l, 222 raw yds/gm allowed here)

Passing

Player	YDS	TD	INT	GP
Sam Leavitt	2171	17	8	8
Landen Clark	235	1	0	5
Husan Longstreet	95	0	0	2
Jackson Harris	41	1	0	1

Rushing

Player	CAR	YDS	TD	GP
Dilin Jones	149	659	6	8
Sam Leavitt	72	324	8	7
Harlem Berry	33	202	1	7
Stacy Gage	21	166	2	4
Landen Clark	24	87	4	7

Receiving

Player	REC	YDS	TD	GP
Jackson Harris	36	634	7	8
Winston Watkins	37	487	2	8
Eugene Wilson	27	284	1	8
Trey'Dez Green	19	272	2	4
Dilin Jones	30	217	0	8