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Oklahoma @ Florida
2026-11-07T05:00:00.000Z
· Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Power rating (SP+) implies Florida
by 2.8
(rating gap + 2.5-pt home field — a rough estimate, not a specific-venue adjustment).
Market line (DraftKings): Florida -5.5 (opened -4.0),
O/U 47.5
Flags
Florida
- 🟡 side Florida averages 249 pass yds/game (8 games) — Oklahoma allows 175 pass yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Florida #31 nat'l, Oklahoma #33 nat'l.
- 🟡 side Florida averages 177 rush yds/game (8 games) — Oklahoma allows 129 rush yds/game on defense (8 games). Overall SP+ doesn't contradict it either: Florida #31 nat'l, Oklahoma #33 nat'l.
Oklahoma Offense vs. Florida Defense
Oklahoma offense: 8 games this season ·
Florida defense: 8 games this season
Oklahoma: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 40 nationally ·
Florida: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 29 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Oklahoma offense | Florida defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 337 #111 | 368 #77 |
| Rush yards | 107 #128 | 133 #55 |
| Pass yards | 230 #66 | 236 #104 |
| Plays | 65 | 67 |
| 3rd down % | 37% #96 | 44% #119 |
| Turnovers | 2 #131 | 1 #60 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 24 (#88 nat'l) | 24 (#50 nat'l) |
Florida Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Florida offense: 8 games this season ·
Oklahoma defense: 8 games this season
Florida: opponents faced (8 games): average defense SP+ rank 39 nationally ·
Oklahoma: opponents faced (8 games): average offense SP+ rank 49 nationally
| Stat (per game) | Florida offense | Oklahoma defense allowed |
|---|
| Total yards | 426 #35 | 305 #20 |
| Rush yards | 177 #42 | 129 #51 |
| Pass yards | 249 #41 | 175 #16 |
| Plays | 70 | 59 |
| 3rd down % | 44% #41 | 28% #7 |
| Turnovers | 1 #76 | 1 #45 |
| SP+ rating (opponent-adjusted) | 34 (#24 nat'l) | 14 (#6 nat'l) |
Raw Box Score (season averages, side by side)
| Stat (per game) | Oklahoma | Florida |
|---|
| Total yards | 337 | 426 |
| Rush yards | 107 | 177 |
| Pass yards | 230 | 249 |
| Plays | 65 | 70 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 |
Oklahoma Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Florida
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Florida's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Florida |
|---|
| John Mateer (Passing) |
278 yds/gm · 1.8 TD/gm |
8 |
~265 yds · 1.7 TD
(Florida defense: SP+ #50 nat'l, 236 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Lloyd Avant (Rushing) |
51 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
8 |
~49 yds · 0.3 TD
(Florida defense: SP+ #50 nat'l, 133 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Tory Blaylock (Rushing) |
23 yds/gm · 0.0 TD/gm |
7 |
~22 yds · 0.0 TD
(Florida defense: SP+ #50 nat'l, 133 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Isaiah Sategna (Receiving) |
86 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
8 |
~83 yds · 0.3 TD
(Florida defense: SP+ #50 nat'l, 236 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Rocky Beers (Receiving) |
72 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~69 yds · 0.5 TD
(Florida defense: SP+ #50 nat'l, 236 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Manny Choice (Receiving) |
35 yds/gm · 0.3 TD/gm |
5 |
~33 yds · 0.3 TD
(Florida defense: SP+ #50 nat'l, 236 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| John Mateer |
1835 | 13 | 7 |
8 |
| Whitt Newbauer |
6 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Bowe Bentley |
0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
| Jacob Ulrich |
0 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Lloyd Avant |
79 | 347 | 2 |
8 |
| Tory Blaylock |
35 | 148 | 0 |
7 |
| John Mateer |
86 | 145 | 0 |
8 |
| Jonathan Hatton Jr. |
31 | 93 | 0 |
7 |
| Xavier Robinson |
13 | 50 | 0 |
4 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Isaiah Sategna |
45 | 591 | 3 |
8 |
| Rocky Beers |
34 | 446 | 4 |
8 |
| Manny Choice |
12 | 144 | 1 |
5 |
| Trell Harris |
6 | 104 | 1 |
2 |
| Ivan Carreon |
5 | 88 | 2 |
1 |
Florida Players
Next Game — Rough Projection vs. Oklahoma
"Vacuum pace" is each player's own current-season output, adjusted for how tough the opponents they've already faced were (via opponent-adjusted SP+, not raw stats) — then adjusted again for Oklahoma's own opponent-adjusted defensive rank. A rough ratio, not a calibrated model; SP+ doesn't split rush/pass so one factor applies to every category. Next game only.
| Player | Vacuum pace | GP | Projected vs. Oklahoma |
|---|
| Aaron Philo (Passing) |
209 yds/gm · 1.3 TD/gm |
7 |
~133 yds · 0.8 TD
(Oklahoma defense: SP+ #6 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Jadan Baugh (Rushing) |
110 yds/gm · 1.7 TD/gm |
8 |
~70 yds · 1.1 TD
(Oklahoma defense: SP+ #6 nat'l, 129 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Duke Clark (Rushing) |
44 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
6 |
~28 yds · 0.3 TD
(Oklahoma defense: SP+ #6 nat'l, 129 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Dallas Wilson (Receiving) |
60 yds/gm · 0.5 TD/gm |
8 |
~38 yds · 0.3 TD
(Oklahoma defense: SP+ #6 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Bailey Stockton (Receiving) |
56 yds/gm · 0.2 TD/gm |
8 |
~36 yds · 0.1 TD
(Oklahoma defense: SP+ #6 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
| Vernell Brown III (Receiving) |
63 yds/gm · 0.4 TD/gm |
4 |
~40 yds · 0.3 TD
(Oklahoma defense: SP+ #6 nat'l, 175 raw yds/gm allowed here) |
Passing
| Player |
YDS | TD | INT |
GP |
| Aaron Philo |
1367 | 9 | 5 |
7 |
| Tramell Jones Jr. |
579 | 4 | 3 |
6 |
| Kahleil Jackson |
48 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
Rushing
| Player |
CAR | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Jadan Baugh |
152 | 801 | 13 |
8 |
| Duke Clark |
36 | 265 | 3 |
6 |
| Aaron Philo |
44 | 104 | 3 |
6 |
| Tramell Jones Jr. |
24 | 83 | 1 |
5 |
| London Montgomery |
13 | 56 | 0 |
6 |
Receiving
| Player |
REC | YDS | TD |
GP |
| Dallas Wilson |
31 | 417 | 3 |
8 |
| Bailey Stockton |
35 | 365 | 2 |
8 |
| Vernell Brown III |
17 | 271 | 2 |
4 |
| Tawaski Abrams |
11 | 189 | 1 |
6 |
| Luke Harpring |
14 | 165 | 0 |
8 |